Ken Fisher Debunks: “Don’t Buy In Until There is Clarity That You’re in a Bull Market”

요약 보기

결론: 명확한 신호를 기다리며 매수를 미루는 것은 잘못이며, 약세장 바닥에서 사야 한다는 주장. 이 영상은 '강세장임이 확실해질 때까지 매수하지 말라'는 통념을 반박한다. 명확성은 항상 비싸며, 명확하다고 느껴질 때는 오히려 위험하다는 논지다. 강세장 전환은 V자 반등 또는 이중 바닥(W자) 형태로 나타나며, 바닥에서 벗어난 초기 몇 주의 상승률이 하락 마지막 몇 주의 하락률과 비슷하게 크다. 명확한 신호를 기다리면 이 상승 구간을 놓치고 두려움 때문에 확정한 손실만 떠안게 된다. 비관의 불신(pessimism of disbelief) 개념: 강세장 초기에는 상승할수록 오히려 '아직 바닥이 아니다'라는 경고가 늘어나 명확한 신호가 오지 않는다. 코로나 약세장 사례: 2020년 3월 저점 이후 주가가 올라도 '불안 요인이 많다'는 주장이 계속됐지만, 명확한 청신호를 기다린 투자자는 이미 사상 최고가 부근에서야 신호를 받았다. 반면 2007~2009년 약세장에서는 2009년 3월 저점 이후에도 수년간 신저점 우려가 이어졌다. 핵심 역설: 주가가 더 떨어질수록 사람들은 더 사기 싫어하지만, 그때가 오히려 보유해야 할 때이며 위험이 가장 낮고 공포가 가장 높은 시점이다. 예측보다 가격이 많이 떨어졌다는 사실에 따라 위험 축소 기회를 활용하라는 메시지다. 언급 종목·지수: 없음(일반 시장 논의). 특정 자산의 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언도 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. clear signals don't come if you're waiting for a clear signal you're not going to get that for a long long time let me just take you back so every month I cover different uh myth from my book to bunkery showing why some piece of conventional logical type wisdom is wrong and one is don't buy in until there's Clarity that you're in a bull market this is wrong for so many reasons and in my book debunkery uh in chapter nine I cover them I'm going to cover them briefly right here and right now the biggest single reason is there's never clarity Clarity in the stock market is always very expensive to buy when you think everything's clear it actually means it's risky the normal way Bearer markets end and turn into a bull market is in either a v-shaped pattern steep decline followed by a steep ascent or in a w shape pattern with two bottoms but when you actually come off the bottom the initial first few weeks of the new bull market Ascend at about the same rate as the last few weeks of The Descent and percentage-wise are huge and getting out and then waiting for that clear period virtually guarantees if not guarantees that you miss that up leg so you've locked in the loss that made you most afraid and caused you to get out in the first place locking in the laws before that Ascent is just about the worst thing you can possibly do to yourself secondarily and I've written about this at some length there is this thing that I call a pessimism of disbelief which I also wrote about in debunkery my book on myths that as that bull market begins people become poor more pessimistic not more optimistic it's it's not what people expect therefore as the market goes up there's more and more evidence thrown at you that you should be afraid and that there isn't Clarity that it should go back down again that it should go back down and hit new all-time lows that it doesn't do the first months of bull markets as you ratchet up most of the prior decline off that steep bottom you actually find ever more voices always arguing that you haven't hit the lows yet so you don't get that clear signal clear signals don't come if you're waiting for a clear signal you're not going to get that for a long long long time let me just take you back to covid bear Market as the market ratcheted up off of its March lows the fastest steep bear Market in history tied to the lockdowns associated with covid people kept saying which is normal there's too many things to go wrong for the stocks to keep going up the stock market isn't reflecting reality but it did keep going up and if you waited for that all clear sign you actually got to all-time highs before you ever got an all clear signal that's a lot to lose take by contrast uh the Great Bear Market of two thousand seven eight nine people kept looking for new lows for several years after the March 2009 bottom and there was continued view that all of the good things that were happening that were surprising people would Morphin turn into bad what is that again a lack of that Clarity so what I want you to see is the further down the stock market goes the more you should want to own it this is a point that's counter-intuitive you know if you think of this in a different way the time to buy something from retailers when they have it on on steep sale not when they don't and with stocks it's just a reverse the lower the price goes the more people don't want to own it when it's actually the time that they should own it and it's very hard for people in liquid Securities to get that in their bones but the risk is the least when the fear is the highest and sometimes you just have to sit there and say to yourself I'm going to hold my nose and I'm not going to pay attention to all the nonsense I hear around me prices are down a lot so therefore I know reduce risk is here at hand and I'm gonna just take advantage of that and not really pay attention to what the next few months have in store the fact is waiting for an all clear sign is waiting for expensive costs to nail you by locking in losses that you don't need while missing the upside that comes from the beginning of a bull market