저자: KenFisher · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 국가부채 증가 자체는 시장의 즉각적 위기 요인이 아니며, 이자비용 부담이 핵심 지표다. 부채 공포 프레임 비판: 총부채(gross debt)는 겁을 주기 위해 과장되는 경우가 많으므로, 실질적으로는 정부기관 간 보유분을 뺀 순부채(net debt, 총부채의 약 70%)를 봐야 한다. 핵심 지표는 이자비용: 현재 미국 GDP 대비 이자비용은 약 2.4%로, 1960~70년대 및 최근 10년 수준과 거의 같다. 금리 상승 시나리오: 1980~90년대에는 이자비용이 GDP 대비 약 5.4%였고 이를 버텼다. 부채 평균 만기가 약 6년이라 고금리가 만기 도래를 거치며 서서히 반영되며, 단기부채 전액이 현재 금리로 롤오버된다고 가정하면 약 5.1%까지 갈 수 있다. 금리 예측 불가: 장기 금리 방향은 예측이 매우 어렵고 이를 근거로 한 시장 전망은 하지 않겠다는 입장이다. 투자자 시사점: 이자비용/GDP 비율과 부채 평균 만기를 정기적으로 확인하면 되며, 현 수준에서는 부채 우려로 과도하게 불안해할 필요가 없다. 리스크: 이자비용이 3~4% 이상으로 올라가거나 장기간 고금리가 지속되면 우려 요인이 될 수 있으나, 이는 가정적 시나리오로 제시됨. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
a perennial question I'm asked every year but more so just recently because of the large spending increases that the government has legislated tied to the infrastructure bill and the so-called inflation Bill and all those things uh adding to government spending as well as suspending that occurred during the covet period is what's the impact of the growing federal debt is that a problem is it a big problem is it catastrophic how much and how should you worry let me try to just simply paint you a simple picture of that if you think of sort of the way a snail looks crawling around the ground it looks like that does that make sense snails crawling around the ground the shells up here the heads here the Tails there this is the way in one way to think about debt most of the ways people talk about it are set up to frighten you and there are some things to be afraid of but there's things not to be afraid of but it's often cast in dollar amounts that are so large that normal human beings like you and me can't really fathom what you do with that much money it's sometimes referred to relative to uh dot debt as a percent of the size of the US economy and and that being bigger than it used to be that's also scary there's a right way to think about it uh and then a right way to think about things to be afraid of and not the right way is first not to think of what is often bandied by those who would like to frighten you which is called grossed at but instead to think of what's net debt net debt is about 70 percent of gross debt at any given point in time it varies over time at any given point in time the largest holder of U.S government debt is itself government agencies that use it effectively like savings accounts with short-term debt they ish one agency issues that the other holds it like a savings account and within the U.S government this is one pocket paying another pocket that debt which is the government effectively owing it to itself you don't have to worry about at all it's the net debt the debt that the government has issued that somebody else owns and that's what you should think about when you think about it then its dollar amount isn't so much what's important as what does it cost the government to support that debt and we're going to come back to the snail so if you think about the debt you've got some debt that's short-term debt some debt that's longer term debt some debt that's longer term still some debt that's very long-term debt you're used to hearing these things 90-day treasury bills two-year notes 10-year treasury notes 30-year you you hear all those things the fact of the matter is you take all lows and they each have an interest rate that was associated with when that debt was issued and when you put all of those annual interest rates together for all of those issuances you get the total amount of money that the government has to spend to service that debt should be simple to understand that amount currently as we speak is 2.4 percent of U.S GDP now strangers may seem to you despite the increases in debt that have occurred because a certain amount of the increase in debt is locked into longer term debt at lower rates from before now and I'm going to come back to that the 2.4 percent pretty much exactly the same as it was 10 years ago also pretty much the same as it was in the 19 60s and 70s going into the 80s so here's the 60s and 70s and 80s at 2.4 percent and then going up into the 80s and 90s you get this hump that goes up into a little over five percent and then as you move into the back part of the 1990s during the Clinton Administration it starts falling and it keeps falling partly by debt initially being repaid in part of that period but also the falling of interest rates time rolling over so those interest rates were locked into the maturity schedule of U.S debt down to the 2.4 level that's the snail 60s 70s 80s 90s late 90s and on down and then the 2000s the snail now when you think about that what you need to think about is at these new higher rates how does that impact the carrying cost of that debt that 2.4 percent obviously we've been having 2.4 carrying costs of the U.S debt for a long time that hasn't been a problem what might be a problem well we did in the 80s and 90s uh 5.4 and we know we survived okay during that time period so we know we could get back up to that 5.4 percent still be okay we know we did that for a long time what would it take to do that and the answer is well it would take these higher rates there long enough to work through the maturity schedule of the U.S debt whether they added more debt or not to get back up to that point now let me give you a portrayal of that if all of the debt was just short-term debt all of it which is far from True the average maturity of the debt is six years that's the average longer shorter but the average is six years if all of it which are short-term debt getting rolled over every 90 days then at today's interest rates we would be at 5.1 percent but it will take years and years to get to that 5.1 percent will markets price that now as a reality I don't think so because it's entirely possible that before you would ever get to the three four five six seven eight nine years necessary to get to that six year average it's entirely possible an interest come back down again will they for sure I'm not going to make that forecast trying to forecast what interest rates will be in the long term is Beyond treacherous I'm not going to try to do that they might they might not but in the next few years which is what stock markets would price today or Bond markets would price today you can't have any way to know and therefore they won't impact markets in some crisis catastrophic or big problem weight in the future you should be thinking about routinely that concept and seeking by looking online what's the carrying cost of the debt as a percent of GDP and what's the average maturity of the debt and if it's down at these kind of 2.4 or 2.8 or you know bouncing around in these kind of levels there's no problem at all if it gets up into the three four five maybe you worry we've never been at six or seven or eight so we don't really know what would happen then we don't know how much the U.S could handle that carrying cost burden but as long as we're down in these low levels despite the scary notion of the large size of the Dead the hearing cost of the debt is something that we've done a lot a lot a lot of times a long time ago and over the last 20 years and so you should relax and that should make you someone more comfortable foreign
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