저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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미국 경기가 롤링 리세션 국면이며 주택·자동차·상업용 부동산·소비가 둔화 중이라 물가가 하락할 것으로 전망. 통화 속도(velocity) 성장 둔화와 M2 약세로 GDP 성장 여력이 제한됨. 엔비디아는 AI 혁명을 주도했으나 파이프·셔블 이익이 다른 산업으로 확산되지 않으면 상승세 지속이 어렵다고 봄. 메가캡 쏠림은 역사상 유례없는 수준이며 생성형 AI가 이를 더 심화시킬 것이라 주장.
다듬은 글
uh now on a year-over-year basis it is uh down to 7% but if you look at uh the the growth on a quarter to quarter basis and then annualize it we're at half that growth rate in fact less than half of that growth rate so that tells you what's coming here the rate of velocity growth is slowing down and is no longer a buff if money supply growth is negative or weak and it is very weak now in fact if we took the um the the rate of money growth at 0.6% on a year-over-year basis and if that 7% in velocity growth drops to roughly three and a half% which is where the quarter to quarter growth rate is going uh then there's very little room for GDP growth 3 and 1 12% 3 and 1 half to 4% accommodates both real growth and pricing is it two and two or one and three we don't know um but the history of velocity is don't forget to subscribe Traders let's continue with the interview to analyze it later and also comment on some of the most important news of the day Once In Motion to the downside it keeps going and we end up in a recession uh so um we have been saying for quite some time we're in a rolling recession housing has been in recession Autos are in recession like conditions commercial real estate office and now even more multifamily uh which is much broader based um in in what we believe is a recession uh we think consumption is entering a recession now during recessions consumption does not fall apart unless that we're in an ' 089 period uh but it has been slowing down fairly dramatically here and uh we believe we're going we're moving towards a flattish consumption environment which is very weak uh and we do believe that is why pricing is going to come down economic indicators suggest a potential recession with various sectors such as housing and Automobiles exhibiting signs of downturns the housing market typically a bellweather for economic health is facing challenges that could be indicative of broader Financial stress similarly the Auto industry is experiencing difficulties that mirror recession likee conditions reflecting decreased consumer confidence and spending moreover overall consumption is slowing down significantly this D acceleration in consumer spending is a critical Factor as it plays a central role in driving economic growth the current Trend suggests that we may be heading towards a period of stagnant consumption where growth in consumer spending remains flat such a scenario can have widespread implications for the economy potentially leading to slower economic growth and increased uncertainty among businesses and consumers alike in summary the convergence of these signs a struggling housing market a faltering Auto industry and slowing cons assumtion paints a picture of an economy that may be on the brink of a recession it highlights the need for careful monitoring and potentially proactive measures to mitigate the impact of these Trends the other thing that's come out of course and um uh importantly we've been talking about Nvidia for a while no question um has been the most important force in unleashing uh the uh AI age uh and uh empowering companies like open Ai and anthropic and meta with its open- source llama 3 platform um so uh very much uh uh believe that Nvidia um has led the charge here and all praise to Nvidia um but what we've been saying for some time now is that if Nvidia is going to continue to appreciate um at this at its recent rate which is quite extreme of course um I think those of you who know us know that we wrote it for a h hundredfold move uh and uh there's been and we've missed a a a three-fold move uh that is what happens as you move into parabolic uh momentum moves in the market and everybody jumps on board um but if that uh is right uh the parabolic move here then we better see some big gains uh in other companies and uh and we thought we would see them in the last few quarters we really haven't we really have not now what we may be seeing and and I we need a few more earnings um Seasons to determine this is Pro productivity is increasing so right now first order effect is productivity is increasing uh better faster more productive uh more efficient more creative products and services coming out of generative AI um maybe that's happening um but it's not clearcut yet so the Pips and shovels which is how how we group and many people group Nvidia pix and shovels um it is has been the first mover no question about it but in order to sustain that move uh we need to see some real gains real benefits elsewhere so you know there are puts and takes with with each of these stocks uh Nvidia has played a crucial role in the development of artificial intelligence Technologies their cuttingedge Graphics processing units gpus have provided the computational power necessary for training and deploying sophisticated AI models making them an IND ensable asset in the AI industry however while nvidia's contributions to AI have driven significant advancements and their stock has appreciated as a result maintaining this upward trajectory in stock value may require ensuring that their Innovations benefit a wider range of Industries Beyond just AI broadening the application and impact of their Technologies can help sustain growth and secure their position as a leader in both Ai and other emerging fields and uh we think generative AI is truly disruptive so the idea that the the crowding into the mag six the Magnificent Six uh which are basically these stocks to the exclusion of so many other stocks um is we think questionable and um by some measures and I think I mentioned this before we've never seen this kind of prow crowding in before not even during the Depression when people were worried about companies going bankrupt they crowded into just a few stocks we went higher this time around uh that's a Goldman study and and we'll present it at the next St generative AI is significantly transforming the stock market acting as a highly disruptive Force historically investors have shown Tendencies to crowd into specific stocks but the current levels of this phenomenon are unprecedented when we compare the present situation to pass Market behaviors we find that the extent of stock crowding today surpasses even the extreme s witnessed during the Depression era this observation is not merely speculative it is backed by a comprehensive study conducted by Goldman Sachs which highlights the extraordinary degree of crowding occurring in today's market the implications of such concentrated Investments are profound influencing market dynamics in ways that were previously unimaginable as generative AI continues to evolve its impact on stock selection and investor Behavior will likely deepen further intensifying the crowding effect and reshaping the financial landscape
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