저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 연복리 44%의 초과수익을 내왔고 아직 초기 단계라 장기 상승 여지가 크다고 주장한다. 비트코인은 위험선호 자산이면서 위험회피 자산(안전자산) 성격도 함께 가진다고 본다. 2024년 4월 반감기로 공급 증가율이 연 1.9%에서 0.9%로 낮아지며 금(연 약 1%)보다 희소해지고, 이것이 금과 유사한 가격 상승 요인이 될 수 있다고 본다. 다만 반감기 효과는 즉시 나타나지 않을 수 있고 과거 같은 수익률이 반복되지는 않을 수 있다고 언급한다.
다듬은 글
um and if you look at bitcoin's compound annual rate of return it's 44% over that time time versus I think it's 4 and a half% for all other assets combined uh so we think the superior returns uh uh are going to be there this is the beginning this is just the beginning of this new asset class um yes and the volatility is coming down um as we look at are we going to have the same returns from Peak to trough going forward perhaps not um but we've come a long way and and we still think we have miles to go don't forget to subscribe Traders let's continue with the interview to analyze it later and also comment on some of the most important news of the day many people think of Bitcoin as a risk on asset and it certainly has traded like that over time uh but we have been looking at it as both risk on and risk off uh and I can tell you when we first uh when we first learned that in 2015 uh when we took our first position in uh Bitcoin via gbtc Bitcoin was about $250 and many people were making fun of us at the time thinking oh they're they're new we had just started our funds in October of 14 oh they're new they're just trying to gain attention this is a marketing gimmick and so we were really on the spot first of of all we had done a lot of research we didn't think uh we thought there was real investment Merit but we're watching like a hawk its moves and it back then uh Greece was threatening to leave the European Union and every time there was a flare up uh you know and and a fear of another European sovereign debt crisis Bitcoin inched up and so we've been looking at it as both a risk on and a risk off asset for quite some time and the reach Bank crisis last year uh kind of uh confirmed uh that point of view that here Bitcoin um more than doubled I think more than doubled as Regional Banks were imploding so uh I think many people are beginning to say as they learn what this is wow could it be both a risk on and a riskof asset we think so in analyzing the performance of the Bitcoin Market it's crucial to recognize its dual nature as both risk on and risk-off asset this means that its behavior is influenced not only by traditional economic indicators but also by market sentiment and risk appetite historically Bitcoin has demonstrated this Duality often serving as a safe haven asset during times of economic turmoil while also exhibiting characteristics of a high-risk investment during periods of Market exuberance during economic crisis bitcoin's Behavior becomes particularly noteworthy it has at times shown resilience and even flourished amidst global economic uncertainty attracting investors seeking alternative stores of value outside of traditional Financial systems in these instances bitcoin's decentralized nature and limited Supply appeal to those wary of centralized monetary policies and fiat currency depreciation conversely there have been periods of initial skepticism towards Bitcoin investment such as in 2015 during this time Market perception of Bitcoin was still evolving and economic uncertain prevailed many investors remained cautious unsure of bitcoin's long-term viability and its ability to withstand regulatory scrutiny and technological challenges however despite the initial skepticism Bitcoin continued to gain traction and legitimacy over time as more institutions and mainstream investors entered the market confidence in Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class grew this evolution in perception coupled with advancements in blockchain technology and increasing adoption has contributed to bitcoin status as a prominent player in the Global Financial landscape um as far as the having I think what we're trying to do in in terms of Education uh as we have this new investor base is say you know what for the first time uh the the the supply growth of Bitcoin it as it drops from 1.9% per year to roughly .9 % uh per year um come April uh it's going it's hitting an important Milestone um the the supply of uh gold has been growing very long term on average 1% so now I mean it's just marginally but it is below the supply growth uh of gold so um we're we're trying to use that um to to uh help people understand a lot of the reason that gold became such an a successful asset class is because the supply growth was fairly controlled especially relative to uh money growth out there in various regimes in including our own um and uh and so I think I I don't see any reason why the having won't be won't cause the same Dynamic that it has in in the previous Cycles especially as we're going out there with that message um and it doesn't happen right away April and boom uh and it it usually doesn't happen that way so maybe they'll develop some impatience but um uh we think that it um it emphasizes one of the core features of Bitcoin and the reason it is uh a a a riskof asset as well as a risk on asset Bitcoin Haring a pivotal event in the cryptocurrency world triggers a ripple effect across markets sparking a fervent discussion among investors and analysts alike at its cor lies a fundamental shift in the supply dynamics of Bitcoin a digital asset revered for its scarcity akin to that of gold the harving event occurring approximately every 4 years slashes the rate at which new Bitcoins are produced by half a move intended to control inflation and maintain the assets deflationary nature delving into the intricacies of this phenomenon analysts scrutinized the impact of the reduction in Supply growth rate post harving a transition from around 1.9% per year to a mere 0.9% this drastic cut Heralds a new era in bitcoin's market dynamics potentially altering its trajectory in profound ways drawing parallels with gold whose controlled Supply growth has been instrumental in cementing its status as a coveted asset class pundits speculate on analogous outcomes for Bitcoin by curbing the influx of new coins into circulation the Harve event aims to bolster Bitcoin scarcity a fundamental attribute that underpins its value proposition this scarcity akin to that of precious metals like gold is a Cornerstone of bitcoin's narrative as a store of value thus the Haring is not merely a technical adjustment but a strategic move to fortify bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty in the wake of each Haring Market sentiments oscillate as stakeholders anticipate the ramifications of reduced Supply growth historical precedents provide a lens through which analysts glean insights into potential outcomes with past harving heralding significant price rallies in the subsequent months the Confluence of Supply reduction and heightened demand sets the stage for a potential Bull Run propelling Bitcoin to new heights yet amidst the Euphoria cautionary voices remind us of the Nuance nature of market dynamics while the harving indisputably Titans Bitcoin Supply its impact on price remains subject to a multitude of factors including Market sentiment regulatory developments and macroeconomic Trends moreover the efficacy of drawing parallels with Gold's trajectory warrant scrutiny as bitcoin's unique characteristics and market dynamics May yield Divergent outcomes
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