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결론: 넷플릭스는 과대평가 상태로 현재가(약 215달러)에서는 매수하지 않으며, 약 147달러 이하에서 매수를 고려하겠다는 입장. [넷플릭스 평가 - 빌 애크먼 비판] 빌 애크먼이 넷플릭스에 투자했다가 큰 손실을 본 것을 비판. 넷플릭스는 팬데믹 수혜로 급등한 대형주로 과대평가되었다고 봄. [밸류에이션 모델 가정] 과거 매출 성장률은 둔화 추세로 향후 5년 매출 성장률 13% 가정. 순이익률은 과거 5~6%에서 팬데믹 이후 상승했지만 보수적으로 10% 가정. 최근 12개월 매출 약 297억 달러, 발행주식 약 4.44억 주 기준. [수익률 계산] 할인율 10%, 5년 후 PER 20배, 연 0.5% 희석 가정. 이 모델로 10% 수익률을 얻는 매수가는 약 180달러. [매수 판단] 현재가 215달러 기준 예상 수익률은 약 6%로 개별주 투자 기준 미달. 15% 수익률 목표 시 매수가는 약 147달러. 단, 본인도 20분 만에 만든 간이 모델이라 투자 조언이 아니라고 강조. [애크먼의 매수가 추정] 애크먼이 약 350달러 이상에서 매수했다고 보고, 매출 성장률 25%, 순이익률 15% 같은 공격적 가정을 해야 그 가격이 나온다고 해석하며 비판. [테슬라 관련 발언] 노르웨이에서 열 대 중 한 대가 테슬라라는 점을 언급하며 테슬라 고가 차량 수요에 의문 제기. 다만 테슬라 주가가 최근 5년간 약 150% 상승했다는 댓글을 언급하며 시장 버블 가능성을 시사. 테슬라 매수가는 따로 없다고 함. [기타] 개별주보다 인덱스 펀드(VT, 전세계 지수, SPY, QQQ) 투자를 권장. 개별주는 자산의 일부(예: 작은 비중)에서만 보수적 가정으로 접근할 것을 권함. 금리 인상 관련 시장 하락은 장기 투자자에게 오히려 유리하다는 취지의 댓글에 동의. [출연자 전망] 스스로 넷플릭스 주가가 장기적으로 147달러 근처까지 내려오면 매수를 고려하겠다고 언급.
다듬은 글
test test test test test can everybody hear me hello put a one in the comments if you can hear me hello can you hear me yeah well you know what i'm gonna assume that you can anyway welcome back to strongman personal finance you may notice that i'm at a completely different office and that's because i'm at somebody else's house now i'm sure you'll make fun of me and say i live with my parents even though i'm just visiting them but yes i'm just visiting okay so let's go ahead and talk about netflix so there's this guy named bill ackman right he's a huge fun he was a hitch flight or whatever hitchcock and apparently this guy bought netflix a while back and he just lost their freaking fortune what a total clown now it was obvious to me that netflix was massively overvalued it's one of those freaking large cap stocks that shot up recently because of the pandemic and it's way too expensive and even now after it's sold off i don't think it's a good buy now i always hear these stories about you know oh well this billionaire you did and you did billionaire yeah let me tell you what you don't need to listen to freaking billionaires to know what you're doing number one you can just match your tax advantage accounts and buy total world index funds and number two half the billionaires are freaking clowns that don't know what they're doing okay but they're rich so we're gonna do some fundamental analysis of netflix so i'm going to share my screen we're going to look at some revenue assumptions previous revenue previous profit margins and we're going to get a rough approximation of what price i would actually buy netflix at so bear with me because this is a freaking apple computer which i suck at these things so hopefully you can see my screen so first we're going to do some analysis of netflix so here i have macrotrends.net and we have netflix revenue from 2010 to 2021 and we have these little graphs down here now what i want to focus on is year-over-year quarterly revenue growth so you can see basically it shows how the revenue was grown year over year so you can kind of get a feel for what netflix's revenue growth is going to be now the younger the company the faster it grows however you can see as we move along revenue growth is starting to slow so the most recent year-over-year growth in revenue was 16 now if you're looking into the future you need to have a lower assumption for revenue growth because the bigger you are the slower you grow okay does that make sense okay so we got that we have uh we'll go with net income so the net income is their bottom line profit well this shows the freaking growth i want to see the profit let's see uh they should have ratios here net income margins let's see what their margins are so their net margin historically if you look at the bottom here the bottom one they have roughly five six percent profit margins until 2020 of course when everybody got steady checks and the freaking profit margins ratcheted up massively now when i'm doing my assumptions for net margin i'm not going to use 17 or 14 i'm gonna go with a good average but you know just to be generous we'll say they have a 10 profit margin okay going forward into the future so we use 10 percent profit margin for revenue growth we'll say i'll be nice and i'll say 13 over the next five years and you can see it's trending downwards so 13 revenue growth 10 profit margin let's see so here's my nifty excel sheet okay let's actually see what was there twilight toilet trailing 12-month revenue let's go back all right trailing 12 month revenue was 29.697 billion a bit of my nifty dippy little thing here which won't freaking pop up there we go just call this we'll call it 29.
29 million i don't know what the heck i was doing here see i freaking hate these apple computers they're just so so confusing to me okay we'll call it 29 billion now the next thing you want to look at is shares outstanding because as an owner of a share you get a certain amount of the profits of the company so the more shares there are the less of the total profits of the company you get now i believe netflix's shares outstanding let's go check netflix shares outstanding uh 0.455 billion so we go back oh that's pretty much it i think this was used for netflix oh yeah i didn't use this for netflix okay so we have trailing 12-month revenue of 29 billion dollars we got what 444 million shares outstanding now your discount rate is your profit so we'll just be nice and we'll say we want a 10 rate of return i want higher the new growth remember we said uh 13 profit margin we said 10 so recently they've had higher profit margins but i'm not going to freaking play around with that okay because those those could always revert and if you look at the historical profitability it was a lot lower pe at disposition we're going to ignore this free cash flow margin assumption pe a disposition this is what you think the company's price earnings ratio will be at this position now netflix has had a healthy price earnings ratio but if you think about it it's a lot lower now and five years into the future it's probably going to be a lot lower so i i'll be nice and i'll say 20 and i'll say they're diluting the shareholders by 0.5 now after all this complex math and i wouldn't use this for buying decisions because i literally i was at work and i was bored i made this in like 20 minutes i would not use this for buying decisions but i mean i'm going to use it for buying decisions but i would not use it if i would if you look the buy price for a 10 return for netflix is 180 what is netflix trading at right now let's see netflix stock netflix stock 215.
so let's see what rate of return you would get if you bought it at the price it is now nine nine percent i hate these macs uh it's five percent okay let's say six percent you can make six percent rate of return assuming you bought netflix right now which to me is freaking trash if i'm gonna buy an individual stock i want better than a six percent rate return assuming these assumptions are correct now for me when would i buy this stock i would buy it around 147 because i want a 15 rate of return with these reasonable assumptions so you tell me is netflix a good deal ladies and gentlemen i don't think so now bill ackman he bought this way way higher i don't understand what these people think even these hedge fund people they think oh the stock went down so i could just buy it and it'll go back up it doesn't make freaking sense to me okay he bought it god let's see what did bill ackman buy made an abrupt turn okay no they sold it he must have bought in the three or four hundreds or something like that but he made a massive freaking loss and it's like dude i put this together in like 20 minutes and it's common sense to me that if you use reasonable assumptions you're not going to make a lot of money on this stock okay it may go up in the short term but that i don't care about that okay i care about long term what is my long term rate of return if it dropped 150 bucks okay i would probably buy it but until then i ain't freaking touching it now do we have any questions let's go look at some of the comments and all you clowns are talking trash strongman is a fraud meet kevin bought me yes i'm totally bought off bro oh here we go 1 in 10 cars in norway are teslas everybody has them here 60 to 100k for a car that everyone else has i do not get it i don't get it ladies and gentlemen especially the model y being popular somehow tesla's going to take over the world and the car 66 grand stupid let's see vt down 5 as of last year tesla up 37 so if you were going to buy it if you were going to buy something and get a better rate of return would you want to buy something that went down or something that went up you freaking test the clouds you just the fact that you brag about short-term price fluctuations shows me how freaking stupid you are tesla 150 over the last five years bet up 40 i wonder which one could possibly be in a bubble hmm god people are clowns let's see big daddy vt that's right see you guys laugh but when i'm 50 or 60 i'll have a lot of money you'll be broke she'll lose your butt with tesla go to margins i found it eventually okay let's see any interesting comments oh so bill ackman bought it at 350 yeah what why would you buy it at 350.
that doesn't make sense to me i made that stupid tracker i'm not saying i'm a genius but it's like not hard to make i made it in 20 minutes and buying that stock at 350 that's insane okay you must have like insane revenue and profitability assumptions now if you assume the revenue was going to grow at 35 percent or something and you thought the profit margin was going to be 20 30 going into the future okay maybe i could see it but i'd rather be conservative and you know reduce my downside risk then assuming the company's gonna have these killer margins and revenue growth and then being screwed kind of like bill ackman did so okay what's your buy point for tesla honestly i don't have one i don't care today's day people learn why we keep saying to buy index funds what's going on with the market is it just getting wrecked today i haven't even checked how's all corsair doing everybody freaking hilarious fifty percent of my portfolio and bob i will outperform you jeremy kevin and tesla i mean you might but i'm not gonna risk fifty percent of my wealth in freaking one stock even though i do i agree i think bob is going to be great but i'm not putting 50 of my money into it i have been burned so many times on individual stocks i spend about 80 percent of my investment money on etfs spy and qqq but i do play around see that's that's what you should do you should play around with a small part of your portfolio but you've got to be careful because you really have to make it super conservative assumptions and wait till those stocks actually hit those buy points before you buy because if you if you look at recent performance like tesla oh the revenue went up 80 and you use that as your projections going forward you're freaking high okay you're gonna get screwed guarantee it look at all these other stocks that got freaking wrecked thanks for helping break the cycle bleeding of jeremy i'm selling out of most of my stocks and investing in bt there you go i would say screw qqq but whatever at least you got some bt okay mark is getting killed because jerome basically said 50 basis points is coming in may this is actually good if you're young and you're dollar cost averaging in the market and it's getting wrecked you're going to make more money you want the market to crash i want i want decimation okay that's a freaking nation i know you understand that you know you just buy tesla because it went up whatever all right that's it i would buy netflix at 150 bucks but of course i wouldn't use this thing as financial advice i'm trying to see what bill ackman actually let me share my screen again let me share my screen okay so let's see what bill ackman's assumptions were let's say he wanted a 15 return a revenue growth let's say 30 profit margin 20.
uh 15. uh let's say 25 okay so this is pro okay this is exactly his buy point so he probably was assuming 25 revenue growth i mean you can do any kind of combination here 25 revenue growth got these freaking apples and 15 profit margin to get a buy point of 352 jesus christ whatever whatever tomorrow tattoo chef at 9 25 when tesla crashed jeremy eagle's truck stop 100 agree all right that's it hopefully this video wasn't too low hopefully you can hear me y'all have a wonderful day maybe i'll make more cheers
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