저자: JasonFever · 외국인
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결론: 워런 버핏의 최근 대규모 주식 매수(약 200억 달러 이상)는 시장에 대한 긍정적 신호로 해석되며, 저자는 2022년 4월 공격적 투자를 권한다. 버핏의 최근 행보: 버크셔 해서웨이는 2021년 순매도 상태였고 현금이 약 1,500억 달러로 사상 최대였으나, 3월 옥시덴털 페트롤리엄(OXY) 약 70억 달러 매수, 3월 알러게니(Y) 116억 달러 인수 발표, 4월 HP(HPQ) 지분 11.4%(약 42억 달러) 취득이 이어졌다. 해석 1: 팬데믹 이후 예측 가능한 환경으로 이동 중이며, 실적·밸류에이션·경기사이클 중심의 투자가 가능해졌다. 해석 2: 버핏은 연준의 금리 인상과 경기침체 우려를 크게 걱정하지 않는 것으로 보인다. 정말 걱정했다면 6~12개월 더 기다려 낮은 가격에 샀을 것이라는 논리. 투자자 조언: 비관보다 낙관이 장기적으로 유리하며, 현재 시점에는 품질 좋은 기업에 집중하고 장기 시계를 유지해야 한다. 리스크: 유럽 전쟁, 팬데믹 후유증, 인플레이션, 연준 긴축이 불확실성 요인이며, 6~12개월 내 경기침체와 시장 급락이 올 수 있다. 저자는 그럼에도 경기침체·조정은 불가피한 사이클이므로 이를 피하려 하면 투자할 수 없다고 주장한다. 행동 계획: 저자는 2020년 초처럼 하락 시 추가 매수할 계획이며, 현재도 여러 거래 기회가 보인다고 말한다. 장기적으로 고품질 배당성장주를 축적하고 있다. 마무리: 피터 린치의 '조정을 대비하거나 예측하려다 잃는 돈이 실제 조정에서 잃는 돈보다 많다'는 인용을 강조한다. 홍보성 내용: 자신의 Patreon 포트폴리오(연간 배당 생활비 충당 구조)와 매매 알림 구독을 권유한다.
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want to take investing cues from warren buffett looking for a market signal from the oracle of omaha would you like to know how much buffett's firm has been spending on stocks recently then you have to check out today's video he is a best-selling author 30 year old jason fever has a plan this guy retired at only 33 years old i don't know if i know too many people that have accomplished something like that he's really kind of a guru when it comes to passive income before i get into today's content if you want exclusive access to my personal six figure stock portfolio and alerts on any new investments on make check out the patreon link in the description below if there were a mount rushmore for investors warren buffett's face would be one of the first ones carved into the rock this is a guy who's averaged 20 compound annual returns over the course of decades his personal fortune is worth over 100 billion dollars and it would be worth over 250 billion dollars if you hadn't already given away billions of dollars to charity there's simply no one else like him so when buffett makes calls on stocks or the stock market people tend to listen and it seems that he's made a big call over just the last few weeks today i want to tell you about the big call warren buffett is making on the stock market in april 2022 ready let's dig in now let me be clear warren buffett didn't grab a megaphone and scream out a market call to the whole world he didn't put up an advertisement in either omaha or new york city no interviews on cnbc instead it's what he's done that's so important it's not what he's said actions speak louder than words and his actions are screaming right now warren buffett has done a sudden u-turn and is now investing billions of dollars into stocks a u-turn that sounds a bit extreme isn't buffett always heavily invested in the market well yeah in fact he oversees a common stock portfolio within his conglomerate berkshire hathaway that has a market value of over 300 billion dollars however buffett's firm has also been carrying tons of cash berkshire hathaway came into 2022 with about 150 billion dollars in cash that's a new record for the firm why are they sitting on so much cash well they have a terrific collection of businesses that all generate consistent cash flow for berkshire hathaway but there's a second part to that because berkshire hathaway has been so timid with investments over the last two years the cash has just piled up indeed berkshire hathaway has been a net seller of stocks over the last couple years berkshire hathaway did buy about eight billion dollars worth of stocks in 2021 but they sold about 16 billion dollars worth when you sell more than you buy you're a net seller now that's not factoring in berkshire hathaway's own share buybacks but you get the point here the point is that berkshire hathaway has been relatively timid with investing over the course of the pandemic and why wouldn't they be we're talking about a once in a century global health event now we can look back and see that it maybe wasn't the existential threat that it was initially made out to be and not to toot my own horn but i was aggressively investing throughout the last two years but we have to remember that berkshire hathaway already has hundreds of billions of dollars wrapped up in stocks more importantly berkshire hathaway is at its core heavily exposed to insurance operations as such they have to operate somewhat conservatively with the cash the fact that they invest so heavily in stocks in the first place is what makes them a bit of a unique specimen so when a once in a century event happens and when you have insurance considerations it's reasonable to batten down the hatches and make sure cash is healthy but the hatches have been thrown wide open and berkshire hathaway is unloading cash on stocks that's right let's talk about what buffett has been doing over the last few weeks alone his firm spent more than seven billion dollars in mid-march to suck up shares in occidental petroleum corporation stock ticker oxy it was announced on march 21st that berkshire hathaway would be acquiring specialty insurance company allegheny corporation stock ticker y for 11.6 billion dollars and then we found out on april 6th that berkshire hathaway had bought up an 11.4 stake in hp inc stock ticker hpq for about 4.2 billion dollars we're talking about more than 20 billion unloaded on stocks in a matter of just weeks even by warren buffett's standards that's a lot of cash to move in a short period of time so what can we take away from this well i think it says two things the first thing it says is that we're moving into a more normal investing environment the last two years have been anything but normal for investors buffett has been investing for eight decades he's seen almost everything but he hasn't invested during a global pandemic and when buffett is forced to sit back and see something new that's probably a bit unnerving the pandemic caused massive dislocations but with the world moving past the pandemic we're now entering back into a more predictable world where investing comes down to more familiar issues like business results valuations economic cycles geopolitics etc i'm sure this makes buffett much more comfortable the second thing it says is that buffett isn't concerned about the recession chatter you know what chatter i'm talking about because the us federal reserve is having to aggressively raise rates in the face of a very hot inflation rate there's fear that the fed will move too much and force the us into a recession in order to break the back of inflation but if buffett were all that concerned about this would he be spending more than 20 billion on stock no way he's been patiently sitting on cash for years what's another six to 12 months if he really thought these stocks would be available for much lower prices in the near future he'd just wait and buy them then so what can us near mortal retail investors take away from all of this look it's easy to give in to all of the negativity and hysteria it's easy to be a pessimist it's actually more difficult to be an optimist however i found that with the way humanity continues to advance over time optimus come out on top time and time again i think what buffett is saying through his actions is this it's perfectly okay to have a positive attitude towards stocks and the stock market right now in april 2022.
however i say that with two important caveats first you have to stick to quality businesses i'll be honest here this is always a caveat i mean it's pretty straightforward invest in low quality businesses expect low quality results but this is a caveat that has to be emphasized right now with so much going on war in europe the world's still coming out of a pandemic inflation the fed etc this is the time when you want to double down on quality second you have to keep a long term time horizon another caveat that's always present but again with so much going on you have to be willing to see past all of the uncertainty and invest for the long term could a recession and ensuing market crash come in the next six to 12 months might buff it be wrong and be timing all of it incorrectly sure that's possible but if you're investing for the next 20 30 40 years does it matter not really and let's get real a recession will come at some point recessions are a natural feature of our economic cycles a market correction will come so if you're investing with the intention of never seeing a recession or a market correction you may as well never invest besides recessions and corrections are often the best times to invest these are times when outrageous deals can be found and outstanding long-term returns can be forged i'm with buffett on this one i'm also aggressively investing in april 2022.
of course i've been aggressively investing over the last one two five and ten years and i'll be aggressively investing for the next one two five and ten years i'm still in my thirties i'm still accumulating high quality dividend growth stocks for the long term so if the market crashes and stocks get cheaper i'll be enthusiastically buying stocks even cheaper just like i was doing in early 2020 meanwhile like buffett i see plenty of deals in the market right now i'll leave you with a pertinent quote by one of the other great investors of all time peter lynch and i quote far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections then has been lost in corrections themselves unquote thanks so much for watching i hope you enjoyed today's video give us a like you did and let us know in the comments what you think about the big call warren buffett is making on the stock market in april 2022 please make sure to subscribe to the channel ring that notification bell so you don't miss out on new content also take a look in the description box below for some important links including the link to my personal stock portfolio this six figure portfolio which i call the fire fund generates enough passive dividend income for me to live off of it allowed me to retire in my early 30s i've made my portfolio entirely accessible over a patreon and i also post alerts there whenever i buy or sell stock i put my money where my mouth is i'm often invested in the same high quality dividend growth stocks that i make videos on over the years i've heard from thousands of investors who have been profiting from many the same exact stocks that i own so if you think this is something that you could benefit from as well check the link in the description to see my portfolio and start getting my buy and sell alerts i'll see you next time
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