저자: ChristopherBelly · 외국인
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결론: 유니티(U) 주가는 과도한 희석과 적자 구조로 인해 붕괴했으며, 이 종목은 사지 말아야 한다는 것이 발표자의 핵심 주장이다. [주가 하락 및 배경] 유니티는 시간외 거래에서 약 30% 급락했고, 2021년 고점 대비 크게 떨어진 상태라고 설명한다. 캐시 우드(ARK)가 보유한 종목이라는 점도 언급한다. [재무 분석 근거] 1분기 매출은 3억 2천만 달러(전년 대비 36% 증가)였으나, 영업손실은 1억 7,100만 달러이며 매출 대비 손실률 53%로 악화되었다고 주장한다. 주식기준보상(SBC) 증가로 주식 희석이 심각하며, 주식 수 증가율이 매출 성장률을 앞선다고 지적한다. 영업현금흐름 및 잉여현금흐름이 이번 분기 처음 플러스였으나 이를 긍정적 신호로 보지 않는다고 말한다. [가이던스 및 전망] 2분기 매출 성장률 가이던스 6~8%로 성장 둔화를 강조한다. 2022년 가이던스에서 약 6백만 주 추가 발행 및 매출 성장률 22~28% 제시를 언급한다. [종목 및 방향] 유니티: 하락 (단기 주가 약세 및 펀더멘털 악화 주장, 매수 비추천) 테슬라: 언급되었으나 흑자 기업이라는 점 외에 구체적 가격 방향 예측 없음 비트코인/코인베이스: 암호화폐 관련 수익은 일시적이라 하락 위험이 있다고 부정적 견해 (구체적 가격 예측은 없음) 어도비, 알리바바: 언급되었으나 구체적 방향 예측 없음 [출연자 및 조건/리스크] 발표자는 개인 의견이며 투자 자문이 아니라고 명시한다. 과거 자신의 유니티 비판 영상 및 댓글 반응을 다루며, 희석 및 비GAAP 지표 사용을 리스크로 강조한다. [출연자 전망] 유니티: 펀더멘털이 개선되지 않는 한 반등하더라도 매수하지 않겠다는 입장이다. 장기적으로 시장 상승기가 와도 유니티는 쓰레기 종목이라고 평가한다.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to strongman personal finance everybody my name is christopher belly i'm a certified cpa accountant i'm a long-term bogle head investor i'm author of the book stop being a broke loser it's on amazon and oh my god have you seen what happened to unity my boonity in the aftermarket hours holy crap now if you don't know what unity is it's basically this software website where people can go on there and use unity software to create games and they have a very impressive portfolio they basically facilitated probably thousands of gaming apps you know on cell phones and they're they're pretty big in the game development world but there was this guy his name was strong man personal finance and you know what strong man said i don't buy massively unprofitable share diluting crash and you want to know why because you're going to lose your butt eventually so let's go can you stream shirtless maybe next time let's go ahead and look at unity stock and we'll go check out the earnings and then i'll show you why i never like this stock and it's complete another trash and you should not buy it so first here's unity down 30 after hours 30 that is decimation this can happen to any stock in the stock market at any time mark my words tesla your next boy now you look back at unity's performance it had a massive run during 2021 everybody got the skimmy chicks oh my god it's the future kathy wood which by the way she owns the stock and boom now it's down from a high of what 201 to 33 dollars and 64 cents like that is just complete and utter annihilation if you had bought this stock a year ago you'd be down 61.77 holy freaking crap now how did strong man know this was gonna happen how did i predict this am i nostradamus am i a genius hmm let's go look at some youtube comments of when i made an old video so here's this guy george lopez or perez whatever stupid name is and he made videos telling people how unity was going to 5 or 10x or whatever and i said this is bs i looked at the financials i said this is trash and anybody can replicate what i'm doing it's not hard to see if a company's freaking share diluting unprofitable trash i don't i don't know if you consider this company a small cap maybe it is after it's sold off but i avoid those companies like the plague because they are a gamble if you put your money in companies like this and you make money your stock goes up your wealth is built on a house of cards it's a lie your wealth does not exist why because there's nothing undergirding your wealth tesla massive run-up profitable company sure but what's really undergirding that stock price mania and hype you may think you're rich because you bought a stock like this and it went up massively you're not because at any second that can be stripped from you and you can lose everything and i mean freaking everything so we'll look at some comments and then we'll go look at the earnings release and then we'll go look at previous quarters and i'll show you why i thought this was trash so here's this guy saying i'm close-minded okay blah blah blah blah blah unity has revenue growth wow okay i pick on people looking at the balance sheet is valid i'm an engineer i know better than you okay jesus christ dude take a different eagle i really tried listening to this objectively my god remove the conjecture yeah it's conjecture looking at the financials i guess you were jerry are you watching this jerry brennaman i guess you were way wrong i bought at 90 and sold at 138 well he actually got out before it freaking crashed and i said it's unprofitable garbage don't care what you made on your little day trade he's a trader he didn't make well he made money but it was a gamble wow what a horrible take unsubscribe for life you coming back sasha let's see um i don't like publishing negative videos bashing other youtubers and telling peeps what stocks not to buy it's gonna work for getting subs dude yeah it hasn't worked out for me super easy to criticize others just focus on what stocks you gotta buy no these youtubers are so toxic they will put you in utter trash like this and you will lose your life savings and it's not freaking funny it's not funny up almost 10 today still 10 today still trash yeah 100 just because the stock goes up doesn't mean it's good not in the slightest stocks can go up irrationally for a long time but if there are no fundamentals holding the stock up it is trash i don't care how high it goes i will not buy it dude most companies are not profitable bro look at tesla bro you must lead a very sad life yeah i'm a loser okay so let's go look at the earnings where did i put the earnings at so here they are let me zoom in just a little bit unity my boonity releases first quarter 2020 financial results so what's the first thing we see here first quarter revenue of 320 million dollars that's a lot of money up 36 pretty impressive huh wow and something else is up 65 so they got 30 36 revenue growth loss from operations hmm 171 million dollars 53 of revenue your revenue is at the top line and you have all these expenses at their bottom line before interest and taxes i don't they're probably not paying taxes because they're losing money 53 loss and that's worse than last time from last year 47 to 53 they're losing more and more money now why were these results impacted ladies and gentlemen these results were impacted by an increase in stock based compensation expense what does that mean that means they are diluting you to heaven and back to hell and back this is freaking trash this revenue growth is not real from a shareholder perspective whenever you look at a company like this compare the revenue growth to the shares outstanding growth if the shares are growing faster than the revenue you're not getting any revenue growth you're getting revenue to climb i rather buy a company that has like two or three percent revenue growth that i actually get and if you have buybacks you get even more but a company like this you're not getting anything holy freaking crap now the only positive thing about this company was they had net cash provided by operating activity so they actually are cash flow positive and they had free cash flow but at the same time you're getting diluted and you're getting less and less and less of that every single freaking quarter now here is what killed this stock because stocks stock valuations are based on future growth it's all about the future the past is the past analysts look in the future they say what is this company worth based on well you can't discount cash flows with this but basically they're looking probably in this company for revenue growth now q2 2022 guidance six to eight percent revenue growth it's slowing down fully diluted shares outstanding 350 million and then for 2022 guidance they're going to give out 6 million more shares and they're going to grow between 22 and 28 so not only is there dilution still going on the revenue growth is slowing down so you're not getting revenue growth anyway in a shareholder basis and it's slowing down okay and you know a company is freaking trash if they say non-gaap if you see non-gaap anywhere it's trash they're basically using that to justify any kind of valuation gaap shows profitability according to the rules of the generally accepted accounting principles if it says non-gaap it's just a stupid made-up thing that companies use to make themselves look better and you could just look at the financials i mean it's just so bad it's unbelievable how bad this company is look at this is this unity look at this revenue growth 42 42 43 you go down to the shares 748.66 the shares are growing faster than the revenue you are not getting any revenue growth whatsoever this is freaking trash horrible trash the only positive thing about this company is cash flows at this point i don't know if that's a fluke because if you look free cash flow negative negative negative negative and they finally had free cash flow finally for the first time in a long time maybe because they didn't make as many capital expenditures i don't know i'd have to see the financial statements at the end of the day there's nothing to celebrate about this company so if you're buying the dip of this company what are you buying you're buying a company that has 50 losses you're buying a company that's diluting you to hell and back you're going to get freaking wrecked if you buy a stock like this okay just because the stock goes down doesn't mean you keep buying it that doesn't mean anything if the fundamental company is trash it's trash i don't care what price it is i wouldn't pay a free i wouldn't put a dollar in this company i wouldn't put a freaking dollar okay complete disgusting trash unity oh my god you don't understand growth bro you're so stupid let's go look at the analyst price targets let me show you something else analyst projections unity stock all the analysts said it's a strong buy 11 buy ratings one hold up side of 171 just buy the stock bro this is all stock mode does oh look at the animal screenings low of 100 high of 160 and it's like 33 right now don't listen to analysts okay max your tax advantage accounts buy total world index funds if you want to play around with five percent of your portfolio okay you can buy trash like this but just know it's a speculation what a freaking disaster i mean lower revenue guidance the only good thing about this company is the revenue and it's slowing down that's not good they need to fix their freaking share compensation because it's a disaster hmm all right let's do some comments you wouldn't even buy the dip no what are you buying you're buying share diluting on profitable trash and if there's ever a bull market again which of course there's going to be a bull market and this stock rockets back up i don't care i'm not buying it it's trash it's all about the fundamental business not buying the dip i to see out on the cucks here love tesla's i'm sure they do arc innovation that's all her portfolio is you go look at her portfolio a bunch of freaking trash she is an idiot she's a and a fool i've been saying this for a long time it's not hard you just have to have basic understanding of accounting and you can see these companies are freaking trash oh god sasha's joining the uh i'm trying to think of a name for my my army of you know immature children which i'm included in that i was thinking the rear rabble or something like that i don't know i gotta find a good name oh god any comments thank you frags i thought you're out of money weren't you selling your butt or something remember you gave me two bucks before look up analyst projections for oppt what is that is that a potential video i need to do jesus christ what do you think about buying trash businesses that are selling for liquidation value okay maybe i don't know i'm not playing around in that kind of market that's not this kind of stocks i buy if art goes bankrupt this will make a great movie meryl streep oh if ark ever just implodes i am gonna have a field day test all it takes is tesla going down man once tesla goes arc is done they're so screwed how much is your financial courses how does it work i don't have a course if you want accounting tutoring you want to learn about accounting i'm not going to tell you what stocks to buy you can either go to my yzam profile it's an online tutoring source or you can email me directly and we can go over financial statements but i'm not going to give you buy and sell alerts and you know that kind of crap i'm not a financial advisor i used to be but i'm not anymore i am not i'm not a licensed financial advisor jeremy's stepping for kathy woods i think cole semps worse than that so jeremy is a perfect example of a kathy woods follower that doesn't know what he's talking about he literally just basically copies her invest in philosophy buy high revenue speculative futuristic trash and hope it works out and what happens is it usually doesn't work out because it's freaking trash revenue growth bro revenue growth okay any more interesting comments i actually have some work to do i actually have other side jobs i think i should quit all my side jobs and just do like more youtube videos let's see i love this dude but i'm buying adobe hand over fist if i get wrecked i'll be cathy wood for halloween yeah i think adobe's expensive in my humble opinion but maybe you're right i don't know i went all in on alibaba good luck i didn't go all in i'm five percent of my portfolios in that me kevin bought our call options the other day kevin just match your tax advantage accounts bros is hard youtuber mood shot go after them they are garbage let's see strongman side hustles make him way more than a stock picking versus index yeah actually they do i tutor somebody 70 bucks an hour boom i go on i teach basic accounting boom 70 bucks you know i i do youtube that's a side hustle oh wow i make 700 900 a month wow you know just having fun having side hustles maximizing your income and then investing that income and index funds you will become wealthy okay that's my plan i'm gonna have a thousand side hustles and i'm gonna get freaking rich i don't have to do it by scamming people we want more youtube videos can your job and other side hustles i'm not quite there sasha okay the side of the other side hustles maybe like editing accounting textbooks that's it's kind of a drag but my main job i'm not ready to quit that yet maybe you should maybe i'm just a coward but i want to i want to make more on youtube and like really have other you know sources of income coming in and then i'll be like you know what now's the time ladies and gentlemen you'll know it cause you'll see them you'll see my sexy face every freaking day sasha we should do a collab i'll uh message you on twitter can you do coinbase down 20 oh look coinbase is freaking trash okay you want to know why coinbase is highly profitable highly profitable but are those good profits are those profits going to be there no they're not you want to know why once crypto falls out of favor those profits go bye-bye they go bye-bye and they ain't coming back coinbase i i would never buy a stock that has anything to do with cryptocurrency because i just don't i don't believe in it i think it's trash it's just a gambling token if you buy a stock like that and crypto falls out of favor what are you gonna do oh boy only fans alright guys that's it for now talk to you later
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