Jamie Dimon’s Alarming Economic Prediction for 2023

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2023년 4월 영상 결론: Jamie Dimon은 2022년 6월 1일 이후 시작된 양적긴축(QT)과 장단기 금리역전을 근거로 경기 침체 위험이 남아 있다고 보지만, 금리역전이 과거만큼 확실한 침체 신호는 아닐 수 있다고 주장한다. 거시 배경: 2022년은 전쟁, 9%대 인플레이션(40년 만의 최고), 연준 기준금리 0.1%→4%대 급등, 주가 약 20% 하락이 겹친 이례적 해였다. 테슬라·메타는 2022년 약 65% 하락. 소비·고용 현황: 소비는 코로나 이전 대비 23% 높고, 초과 현금 약 1.2조 달러가 예금에 남아 있으며, 실업률은 매우 낮고 임금은 상승 중이다. 이는 2008년과 달리 가계 상태가 나은 근거로 제시된다. 양적긴축(QT): 연준은 2022년 6월부터 국채·MBS를 매각해 대차대조표를 줄이고 있으며, 현재 매달 약 1000억 달러 축소 중이고 누적 매각은 약 5500억 달러다. Dimon은 이 정책이 장기금리 상승 압력을 만들어 주식 등 위험자산에서 자금이 빠져나갈 수 있다고 본다. 장단기 금리역전: 10-2년물 스프레드 역전은 과거 8번 중 8번 침체를 뒤따랐으나, 이번에는 2020년 이후 대규모 QE로 장기금리가 눌렸다가 단기금리가 오른 결과일 수 있어 신호 신뢰도가 낮을 수 있다고 본다. 역전이 QT 진행으로 정상화되며 침체 없이 해소될 가능성도 언급된다. Dimon의 주요 우려: 우크라이나 전쟁 영향과 양적긴축 두 가지. 2023년 경기 악화 시 가장 큰 원인은 6월 이후 시작된 QT가 될 가능성이 크다. 영상 결론: 장기 투자자라면 현재의 인플레이션·금리 충격도 장기 성장 과정에서 작은 한 구간일 뿐이라는 관점을 유지할 것을 권한다. 영상 내 특정 종목에 대한 구체적 매수·매도 추천은 없다.

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01. um storm clouds ahead you say maybe some for the economy yeah this is Jamie dimon on CNN this week talking about the economic storm that is now overhead a storm that he warned us about back in early 2022 right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine everyone thinks that the FED can handle this that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way back in the media this week Diamond explained why the problems in the economy are far from over and it has a lot to do with something that happened on the 1st of June 2022.

02. last year was an extremely unusual year plagued by War record inflation rapid interest rate increases and a stock market collapse all while unemployment remained at a record low and consumers continued to spend far in excess of pre-covered levels fueled by the trillions of dollars they have in excess cash in their checking accounts but Diamond sees dark storm clouds circling overhead and while we cannot predict exactly what the economic weather will look like we can explore the major factors that have raised the probability of further trouble coming down the road Jamie dimon is one of the biggest names in the finance World he's the CEO of America's largest bank JP Morgan Chase which is also the fifth largest bank in the world Diamond has built a personal Fortune of about 2 billion dollars through the 9 million shares of JP Morgan that he's acquired since his 17-year term at the top of the company and he's one of the few people I turn to for learning more about macro economics not because he's some kind of prophet who can predict the future but because he has a strong understanding of the key factors which influence the likelihood of good and bad things happening in the economy recently Diamond has been talking a lot about an economic hurricane that the world faces as an Aftershock to the covert pandemic these storms that we see in the economy are not quick events that come and go all the time they're more like changes in tides that take place over multiple years and part one of the change we're currently seeing took place last year in 2022.

03. in his 2022 shareholder letter that was released this week Diamond spoke about the cocktail of unusual events that we experience he said 2022 was not normal economically speaking and in fact 2022 witnessed several dramatic events we saw a war in Ukraine begin and rage on throughout the entire year and that certainly added to the growing inflation pressures which were already building as an after effect of covert stimulus spending in fact inflation got so bad that it reached a 40-year high in the U.S of nine percent a more than four-fold increase in the annual rate since 2019 and the unusual acceleration of inflation led to an unusually fast monetary policy response from the Federal Reserve who beginning in March increased the federal funds rate from 0.1 percent to over four percent by the end of the year the stock market collapsed around 20 percent with many popular stocks seeing much worse performance in fact some very big and recognizable names were in the top 20 worst performing stocks for 2022.

04. Tesla and meta platforms both down 65 percent and PayPal Carnival and Warner Bros Discovery were not too far behind and to top the year off the yield curve for U.S treasury bonds inverted a rare circumstance where short-term bonds offer a better return than long-term bonds and indicator that has predicted a recession in eight out of the last recessions but maybe even more strange than the crazy combination of negative events that happened in 2022 as of the start of the second quarter in 2023 the economy is still running pretty well in the shareholder letter Diamond said underlying all of this consumers have been spending 23 percent more than pre-covert 19.

05. similarly according to our own analysis have 1.2 trillion dollars more in excess cash in their checking accounts than before the pandemic in addition unemployment is extremely low and wages are going up this is what makes the current economic circumstance very different from what happened in 2008 beyond the obvious differences of what is actually causing the economic pain average consumers are in much better condition than before the global financial crisis those who held Assets in stock or property markets over the past decade have seen huge amounts of appreciation and that's going to provide some level of a cushion if there is a significant downturn in the near future a cushion that didn't exist before the global financial crisis and even for those who haven't benefited from the strong Capital markets in a meaningful way strong and increasing demand for workers across a variety of fields has been driving wages up across the board but there are still dark storm clouds overhead according to Diamond and if we're to see deteriorating economic conditions over the next 12 months then it's likely going to have a lot to do with something that happened on the 1st of June 2022.

06. just before I get to those clips I do want to quickly talk about the sponsor of today's video Seeking Alpha Seeking Alpha is a massive online community of stock Pickers and the Premium plan has a ton of awesome features for investors expert analysis and news for thousands of different stocks to help you learn the ins and outs of what's going on with companies in the economy you can import and track your own portfolio including buy or sell alerts there are consensus buy hold and sell ratings from Members Wall Street analysts and seeking Alpha's own algorithm you can screen for stocks using a wide variety of fundamental and technical analysis metrics access up to 10 years of financial data and Company filings and there's a ton of educational content to improve your skills including webinars podcasts and articles and best of all if you use my link down in the description below you can sign up today for an annual plan for as little as 10 per month or you can head directly to Hamish hotter.com forward slash Seeking Alpha and go try Seeking Alpha out today if you don't worry in this business you're crazy what are you most worried about right now two things well I think all bidders quantitative tightening the effect it has on long-term rates inflation higher for longer that's kind of the tide going out but I think there's war in Ukraine Diamond has two main concerns for the economy in 2023 the effects of the war in Ukraine and quantitative tightening quantitative tightening is a type of monetary policy used by the Federal Reserve in order to tighten Financial condition it's really the second main lever that the FED can pull to slow the economy after their other lever which is of course raising of interest rates raising the federal funds rate is how the Federal Reserve is able to control the short-term borrowing rates in the United States the federal funds rate is currently set at 4.65 percent and therefore a 30-day U.S treasury bill offers you just about the same yield but the federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve has less of a direct impact on the long-term borrowing rates which can be influenced by other factors so that brings us to quantitative easing and tightening this is where the Federal Reserve buys and sells treasury bonds or other Securities to either push new money into the markets or pull some of it out the US has experienced over a decade of quantitative easing where the FED has printed trillions of dollars and purchased treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in his letter Diamond says in the two years after covid-19 the FED bought 4.5 trillion dollars of U.S treasuries and mortgage-backed securities bringing its total balance sheet to nine trillion dollars he goes on to say we have experienced almost 12 years of quantitative easing or QE which drove interest rates down so much so that the U.S short-term rates were virtually zero and the 10-year bond rate hit a low of 0.5 percent but beginning on the 1st of June 2022 the script has been flipped now the FED is doing quantitative tightening where they're selling back some of those treasury bonds that they acquired essentially sucking money out of the financial market so far the FED has sold about 550 billion dollars worth of bonds and is continuing to reduce their balance sheet at a rate of a hundred billion dollars per month this is an element of monetary policy that diamond believes not enough people are paying attention to he writes it should be noted that an inordinate amount of attention is focused on short-term interest rates which the FED affects directly but the FED does not completely control long-term rates and liquidity which are influenced by both supply and demand and Global investor preferences and sentiment what diamond is essentially saying here is that even If the Fed decides to stop raising interest rates which will stop the increase in short-term borrowing rates it's entirely possible that long-term bonds or long-term U.S bonds for example will continue to see their yields rise in fact given that the FED is now flooding the market with government bonds and has trillions on their balance sheet to go it wouldn't be surprising at all if say the 10-year Government Bond continued to see its yield rise the other major factor that affects long-term interest rates is global investor sentiment you think the FED raises again in May well they're two rates one is the short rate I do not know what they're going to do and obviously they may not because you know Financial conditions but there's also longer rates and that has a different effect and that the FED does not control directly that's controlled by Global Investors sentiments supply and demand and that's gotten bad for sovereign debt and you might be wondering why does any of this even matter well the more that long-term borrowing rates rise the more attractive those Investments look to investors and if those Investments look relatively more attractive compared to say stock market Investments it's going to lead to money moving out of the stock market and other risky Financial assets but will there be a recession this is the question that's been hanging over the U.S since the beginning of 2023.

07. some might quickly point to the inverted yield curve as proof of a recession coming but Diamond believes that the indicator may not be as reliable this time as it's been in the past the yield curve inversion has historically been the most accurate indicator of a recession coming in the near future the curve is a chart plotting out the current interest rate on U.S government bonds of varying maturities normally the shorter the maturity the lower the interest rate resulting in a yield curve that slopes upwards but sometimes the curve inverts and short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rate the explanation for why this is the case is really a story about investor sentiment if investors are very negative or view the markets very negatively in the short term then they're more likely to be selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds and the selling of short-term bonds raises their yields and the buying of long-term bonds lowers those yields resulting in the curve flipping the yield curve is also usually represented as a spread between two specific bonds such as the two-year and the 10-year Government Bond which is called the 10-2 spread when the 10-2 spread goes negative it means the curve has inverted and the last eight times the spread has gone negative a recession has quickly followed and since it's currently negative it also implies that a recession is coming in the near future but also maybe not diamond in his letter offered the possibility that this time is different and I know that sounds like what every single so-called CNBC expert says right before the exact same thing as the past happens over and over again but Diamond actually has an interesting point that I think is worth listening to there's something distinctly different about 2023 then all of the other times that the yield curve has inverted quantitative tightening remember the long-term Bond rates aren't controlled by the Federal Reserve but they were driven to Rock Bottom due to the huge amount of quantitative easing that the FED did since 2020.

08. so it's entirely possible that the yield curve inversion that we see is the result of QE since 2020 pushing down long rates and the recent rate hikes are driving up short rates and of course this still makes the yield curve negative but it's been pushed negative for a completely different reason to the past in the past the reason why the yield curve inverts is because there is a shift in supply and demand based on investor sentiment and that might not actually be happening at the moment and with quantitative tightening now in full force the yield curve could return to normal without a recession happening at all of course it's also entirely possible that investor sentiment is playing a role in the current negative yield curve and therefore it will continue to be a recession indicator but I thought it was an interesting point to recognize that sometimes there are different things happening and an indicator like the negative yield curve is never something you should rely on for your investment decisions remember no matter how bad inflation or other economic factors may seem at the time if you're a long-term investor with a long-term view then what is happening right now will end up just being another spec in the rear view mirror of a growing American and global economy foreign