저자: DavidTepper · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed가 이미 금리를 인하했고 시장은 추가 인하를 반영 중. 추가 1~2회 인하는 크게 영향이 없고 과도한 완화는 달러 약세·인플레 위험을 낳아 '위험 지대'가 될 수 있다고 봄. 대형주는 싸지 않지만 시장은 건설적이며 연준과 싸우지 않겠다는 입장. 나머지 종목 중 일부 주택 관련주는 금리 하락 시 흥미로울 수 있으나 실적 부진으로 불확실. 관세는 10% 수준은 영향 작다고 봄.
다듬은 글
It's great to have you on. Thanks for joining. Have you been killing it the last couple years? It's been so long since you've been on. Have you would you say you have been able to repeat your great success again and again and again? You've been killing it. Well, first I do want to congratulate you guys on 30 years.
And uh Mike's here instead of Andrew. He looks like kind of like a buffed Andrew. So make pretend like that. And Becky's not here. So that's actually my social media handle. You look like you look nothing like her. No, I look nothing. You do. No, you don't. That's not even a wig wouldn't help if nothing would help.
Nothing would help. And nothing would help. Um, yeah. I mean, we're having a pretty good year. I mean, we I actually was here last year, I guess, you know, talking about China, the China thing. Yeah. Which turned out to be half decently good at the beginning and then maybe not so good later, right? But who knows how long.
Now we're up big. We're pretty Well, I mean, kind of. Yeah, it's been big. I mean, if like Alibaba's up a lot, so it worked pretty well. So, I mean, we're having a pretty good year. Um, where are we? And and and it's a good day for you to Why did you want to come in today? Because I just came in because I felt bad about missing
and I I'm in New York, the whole city, and I felt bad about missing your 30th anniversary. Okay. Which is a big deal. But it is a Fed the Fed cut yesterday. First, you know, is it the beginning of I noticed it. I did. You were watching this morning. You watched Frank Holland talk about did did uh is it the beginning of an easing cycle?
Well, look, I mean, they they eased they eased yesterday and you know, I think the market knows there's another ease coming. Could be two more ease coming. That's what's in I don't know what's in there this morning, but uh um you know, and and you're you're easing at least those eases are into a as you just saw numbers out, not in a bad economy.
And look, I don't know how long that lasts and we're not at you know, we're not at cheap levels in this market. On the other hand, you know, when they used after long-term capital and then they used to get into Y2K, I mean, we weren't in a bad economy then and the market went a little bit nuts. I'm not saying the market's going to be nuts now, but and and by the way, the other side of that was a disaster.
Okay. So, I mean, this, you know, I I don't think another ease matters, you know, as far as being too easy. It's going to be a little bit restrictive. I don't know if they do too. Beyond that, it's going to be a little tricky, I think, because you got to be careful not to uh make things too hot to have the other side of the mountain, which was really freaking ugly, you know, in 2000, 2001, etc.
You haven't been on since um Trump got elected for the That's not true. I was on last year talking about China. Was that after Trump got elected? That was just last year. Last year. Was it last year after Trump? I can't remember when he got It might have been before Trump got elected actually. Yeah.
I don't think you you haven't talked about tariffs, industrial policy, the the big beautiful bill. Do any of you any of those go into your calculus for what you do? Look, I I I'm not a like a lot of, you know, classically trained had honors in economics and college uh economists. I don't love terrorists.
On the other hand, I don't think 10% tariffs, at least at that level, make a difference. Okay. Okay. And there's something to be said for having a little bit of um you know in in a in a in an AI sort of world where you may have you know a little less employment have u little protection or having people uh protecting people here.
Um and the same thing with immigration policy you could argue that if you if you do have eventual layoffs because of AI. So I can I can be fine with it. I don't love the the 25% or the 50% tariffs. I think they're a little bit destructive, but quite frankly, you know, 5 or 10% or, you know, which are a little bit higher.
I understand that, you know, I don't think it really makes a difference. And it may be kind of constructive where we are right now. You think it's a slippery slope to some type of state sponsored industry by taking a stake in Intel and having Nvidia, you know, pay royalties on stuff we let them sell to China or any of those things bother you or
I don't love it when it comes from and either do you because you've made comments in the past when it comes from Democrats and I don't love it when it comes from Republicans, right? I mean, does it matter if it's not done widespread? Again, no. So it's, you know, to be consistent about it, I don't love it on either side when it happens because you take away from the natural kind of uh, you know,
does a great American economy and it's the greatest ever in in the world. Does that AI do those two things just sum up why you I'm not going to put words in your mouth, but are you are you excited about the stock market for the next couple of years? I'm look excited. Um, I'm not like, you know, there was a phrase I used, you know, about I guess it was you you said it was a a term used in the Navy balls to the walls in 2008.
No, it's it's actually fine to use that because it's a thrill. I know. So, we we decided it was a you said that word. Who's who told you to say that word? Is a medical term. Anyways, so it's a medical term. Anyways, um, no, I look, I'm constructed because of the easing right now, but I'm also miserable because of the levels.
Does that make sense? So, so is it just seven stocks though and everything else is cheap? What's that? Is it just seven stocks and everything else is cheap when they do these weighted? No, it's not though. I mean, nothing's cheap anymore. No, the the other 470 the 493 are like 20 times. They're 20 times.
maybe a little lower than that, but they're not they're not cheap by by historical standards. Now, they're cheap pockets. I mean, if we do get rates lower, some of the housing related stocks are maybe cheap, but they're they're not showing up in earnings right now because they've had tough quarters and they're still having tough quarters.
So, depending where the tenure goes and, you know, where mortgage rates go, um, you know, they could be interesting. But then again, if it just continues on the same way, they they may not be interesting. So, you're not here to pass something down from on high that it's time to just I am here because I just want to congratulate you and Becky and and and you guys have to have like a a big party every year
and have come in. I know I won't come every year, you know. I know you don't come. I can't remember the last time you were in studio either. I mean, this is I was in a studio last time. Joe's been joking about, okay, not really joking, but 3%'s a new target, right, for the Fed. The average CPI for 30 years back.
I mean, it's like 29 or something like that. Like, in other words, 2%'s not magic. The mark the stock market seems to be kind of okay where we are if the bond market's not going to rebel against it. So, how do we how do we think about my my view has been that one easing or two easings or even three easings just are not just don't matter.
Yeah. um don't matter because we're still in a little restrictive territory with looks like you know a little bit too high inflation even without the uh tariff induced inflation. So they should be a little bit restrictive. Beyond that um I think it can you know then you're really risking a lot of things a weaker dollar more inflation and those sort of things.
So we you know I I and I don't it doesn't matter what happens if you really want to play with mortgages a little bit. You know, the Wall Street Journal had a thing of what that Pimco said about, you know, not reducing the balance sheet um with mortgages, right? That may be something you do, but to go too much more on interest rates, depending what happens with the economy, you know, is is it gets into the danger territory right now to go another 25 basis points or another 50 basis points, does it really matter, you know, one way or another?
It probably keeps the stock market a little buoyant. Um I you know you have to be careful because we're like you said where the average stock isn't cheap. The big stocks are not cheap. I mean so you don't have cheapness here but you do have a constructive you know like you know I'm not fighting the Fed.
I'm not going to do that at least in the near term and then it's what happens on the flip. Right. Presumably though the composition of the Fed's going to get more doubbish in the next several months. Right. I mean so therefore maybe they're going to push it more than just a couple of little a couple of uses.
You know, it's an interesting thing when you say that because just what we're talking about here. If you push it, are you pushing the things you want to push and the things you really want to push is, you know, probably the housing market and, you know, the penup demand there. So, that can be counterproductive.
So I don't think at the end of the day that uh you know you do have people like Besson in there and I think they understand that and they also understand that you know like I said the same thing I just said the 25 to 50 to 75 you know maybe if you go that far does it really make that much difference.
Okay. So but if you push it too far well you know at that point you know the old Joe would be going nuts. Okay. I mean, you know, at that point, it just doesn't make a lot of economic sense and you can't. A long time ago, when I was a young man, when I was 30, I thought I can control individual markets.
I can't control anything. And neither can the either can the Fed or either can people there. So, you can push it so far, but you can't push it beyond that. And I think hopefully they
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