저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
경기와 실적이 견조해 금리 인하 필요성이 낮으며, 0.25%p 인하는 수용하나 0.5%p 인하는 밸류에이션 과열과 급락 위험을 키운다는 주장. 미국 주식시장은 실적 주도 강세장이며 전방 PER 22배로 비싸지 않지만 빅7은 약 30배로 고평가. 2020년대 말까지 격동기를 경고하는 장기 견해 포함.
다듬은 글
Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve begins its two-day interest rate meeting. I want to take a closer look at the market situation with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research . Good morning, sir. Thank you. I'm trying to understand where this is all going. I think we're at a quarter point, but I don't know, some people are suggesting now, maybe we'll get, you know, a half point.
It's a stretch, it's possible, but I, like everyone else, am in the quarter-point camp. I was actually in the camp of those who said, "Hey, you know, I don't know if we need this at all , because the economy is doing pretty well. The labor market has been weak, but the GDP numbers are strong. So, could it be that productivity is actually coming back pretty well?
If so, does that explain this discrepancy? Is it the return of AI? The history of AI? What does that mean to you? AI, but I think what's really been driving the productivity gains, I think, is the labor shortage, especially skilled labor. And, uh, companies, that's why, you know, the initial filings, at least until last week, have been very, very low.
And I think layoffs are going to stay very low because companies are holding on to their workers and trying to make them more productive. As far as the stock markets right now, they're already a quarter point up. So, after that happens, let's say that happens, yeah, would the market go up on this news, because they confirm whether they're going to say, "Oh, we were actually expecting more." Yeah.
Well, I think the market is expecting 25 basis points and will be pleasantly surprised by 50 basis points. But 50 basis points is really going to create a meltdown and meltdown situation in the market where I think you're going to see the market go up too fast on valuation. Valuations are not cheap right now.
We're at 22 times forward P/E. It was really an earnings-driven bull market. You know, we took that dive. Remember, the last recession was during the pandemic and it only lasted two months. And then it took us a few months to recover, and from the moment we recovered, we've been up 100% on the S&P 500 , and forward earnings have been up 100%.
So it's been a surprisingly stable environment for earnings, especially this year, given tariffs, avoiding all the other political uncertainties. And so if you think about the unevenness of this market, you talked about earnings. Yeah, 20. Yeah. Uh, 22, uh, P of 22 on a forward basis. Not cheap. But not cheap either.
No. But super uneven, meaning there are companies that are pulling these numbers out weirdly. Well, if you're right. I mean, the Magnificent Seven is about 30 times forward earnings, and then what I call the impressive 493, I think they're going to be... I think they've been impressive and they're going to get even more impressive.
I think, you know, those multiples are about 19, which is not exactly cheap , but it's definitely, uh, fairer value than what we're seeing in the Big Seven. But the Magnificent Seven has demonstrated time and time again something that we've, uh, never seen in the past, where the big companies just increase double-digit returns.
I just want to pick up on this idea of how strong the economy is, because you say you think it's actually very strong. To the point where I think you might not even cut a quarter point. That's right. I mean, I-I-I see some similarities between what happened now and what happened, uh, last year. Last year, the Fed cut interest rates 100 basis points from September to December, and bond yields went up 100 basis points because it turned out that the economy wasn't that weak, and inflation wasn't even at 2%.
It was still up about 3%. Do you think the reason they're doing this is just political pressure? What do you think about that ? Well, I think it's political pressure, but they also obviously have justifications. I mean, they're data-driven and don't necessarily agree with my interpretation of the labor market.
The labor market data was weak. There was a downward revision , but I don't think the GDP numbers will be revised up. So I think the productivity numbers will be revised up. If we have productivity-driven economic growth right now, then interest rates are basically where they should be. If they are lowered, then there is a risk that the stock market will crash and then crash.
So you're looking at things completely apolitically. Well, I'm trying to. Yeah. I've never seen any bias in what you're saying on this . What do you think about all the political stuff that's been layered on top of it, and how do you sort that out? Well, you know, I've been doing this for a few years now, and one of my mottos that I've learned over the years is that it's really amazing how well the U.S.
economy and the U.S. stock market are doing , in spite of Washington. You know, everyone's bias is, to see the headlines, to look at fiscal monetary policy, all of these policies. And my attitude is, wait a second. Look at all of us, all of us hard-working people who are doing a great job running our companies, our businesses, working despite...
What do you think about where the markets are right now ? You had the S&P 500 hitting an all-time high during the intraday trading session. You had the NASDAQ closing at a new high. Well, since 2020, I've been talking about the tumultuous 2020s, and, uh, so far, so good. I-uh, does that mean we have four more years or something?
I realized the market was over 10,000 by the end of the decade. Yeah, yeah. And then I started talking about the tumultuous 2030s. I mean, the 20s, the 20s ended badly because of tariffs. Um, and this time we're doing a kind of stress test of the global economy with the tariff issue. And yet, stock markets around the world have hit record highs.
That did n't happen in the early 30s. So I think the resilience of the global economy, the U.S. economy, the incomes , the companies that can use productivity-enhancing technologies to increase their incomes, all of that adds to the bull market that's continuing. Does it matter what the Fed does, or does it help even more if the Fed cuts rates closer to what you're seeing?
Well, I think it's important in the sense that if I think we're in a neutral position. You know, the unemployment rate is 4.3%. The inflation rate is basically around 3%, but it's still about a percentage point above 2%. So we're already at, you know, where the kids in the backseat say, "Are we there yet ?" "Well, I think we're about right on interest rates.
If the Fed keeps cutting rates, there's a risk that the valuation multiplier will start to lead the market up, not behind earnings. And after the highs, there's a crash. The first article I saw this morning, I just didn't read it, but it was, and I don't want to say where it was because I look at a lot of different sources, but it expected the S&P to have its biggest weekly drop since April after the Fed cut rates.
I doubt that. That's what sells the news. Yeah. I...I...I...I...like... People should write articles that...you know. I'm explaining why I doubt that because I think the real surprise this year has been the resilience of the economy. Nothing's done. Nothing's hurt. Again. and the earnings market or the economy.
Earnings were much better in the first quarter than expected, much better than expected in the second quarter. And I think we need to take into account the saying, " Look at how well our companies are doing despite the policy turmoil , but how they're eating the tariffs?" That's the thing, and we had Gary Cohn say they're laying people off.
Yeah. I just wrote about that, and part of the answer is that it seems like Chinese companies are lowering their prices to try to compensate for that. So they're eating some of the losses. That's good. Companies are making up some of the losses through productivity. And consumers are getting hit, particularly in some consumer durables.
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