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Across to my colleague Tamanna who is in conversation with Mark Faber talking about tariffs, US recession and a lot more. Okay, so what does that mean? You are saying that if the statistics were true, the United States is already in recession, Germany's already in recession. What does that mean for asset classes?
You say in your latest report, the gloom, boom and doom report, that the best is over for the darling of Wall Street, the Teslas, the Nvidias, etc. Is that what we're going to see more of? In November, I wrote a report that Trump top stock markets peak out amidst the wave of incredible optimism and great expectations and high valuation, high level of speculation and high retail participation.
Retail people who have no clue about stocks. And the same has happened in the India. In India, there's a huge wave of speculation that persisted last summer and so forth. And now the stock market has imploded much more than the index would suggest. The same happens now in the US. The US is the biggest bubble in history.
Post the tech market, the bond market and the stock market compared to the real economy. Okay, so a lot to unpack there. I'm going to come to the Indian question in just a bit. But you are saying that you talked about the Trump top. What are we seeing right now? Are we seeing the Trump bottom? Are we seeing the worst over?
When you hear President Trump talking about tariffs day in and day out then announce some walk back on some. What do you think is going to happen? I love Mr. Trump because he's truly clueless. But he's very convincing in what he says. And he changes mind every two or three days depending who walked into his office and convinced him of some some new wisdom.
But I like these tariffs. The tariff idea is one of the worst economic interventions you can dream about. The every everybody in the whole world knows that it's going to be disastrous if each country introduces tariffs. It will kill the economy. But Mr. Trump is very highly confident that this will work out and it will make America great again.
It's a complete joke. But the valuations in America very high relative to the rest of the world. The US has a market cap of over 50% of the world stock market cap. So I think the fund stocks and the magnificent seven, they will go down and the money will flow out and go into depressed assets. Some of these depressed assets you can find in Europe, some in the mining sector and mostly in emerging economies and I think emerging economies will grossly outperform the US in the next five years.
Okay, so that's important because if I talk about emerging economies and let me pin down on India. The flow has been in the opposite directions. All roads lead to America right now as far as global flows are concerned. You're saying that could reverse. How does the Indian market then look? All flows lead to Nvidia and Tesla.
Two stocks in America. They're the the the the darling of speculators worldwide. And then a little bit of Bitcoins. And now these flows are reversing. In fact, most retail investors have suffered colossal losses in the last two months. I go to bars every day. I can see before this implosion in the last two months of these stocks, Nvidia, Tesla and the and the cryptocurrencies, in the bars, 50% of the people were day traders who traded day and night in these instruments and they made $50, $100 and they go and drink they went drinking into the bars and so forth.
And now the bars are empty. But the these people, these day traders have all been wiped out. Wiped out. Same in India. No, no. So one sec. Um let me get to the India story. This is the second time you've alluded to what is happening with retail investors in India. Right now you are live on our market closing show.
People watching you are those who are trading maybe squaring off their positions for the day. What is your word for Indian investors right now in equity? Well, if the market rebounds and get out, this is a We are faced with a global bear market in assets that in my opinion will last for several years.
Mhm. Several years in real terms, inflation adjusted. Now you print money, maybe it goes up, but it goes up less than the rate of inflation. The problem will be at some point the strength of the currency. The currency will continue to decline, the rupee, especially and that I want to stress, especially against the price of gold, silver and platinum.
No, so right now, what is your advice to investors? Are you saying look at metals? Look at gold? And if you are saying the Trump trade is reversing, emerging markets are going to be hot, why not India? Because where some emerging markets have been in bear markets for up to 10 years in Asia. You look at China, Hong Kong, uh even Indonesia, Malaysia and so forth.
These markets have been in bear trends for a long time. And they're now in uptrends. Especially like We have to look at the individual sectors. You know, the Western media has 10 years ago, they couldn't write more positive about China and Hong Kong and everything. And now you cannot find an article that is positive about Hong Kong, China.
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