저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 연준의 공격적 금리인상이 인플레이션 잡기에 오류일 수 있으며 디플레이션 위험이 커진다고 주장한다. 연준 금리 상황: 연준은 올해 5차례 인상, 최근 0.75%p 3연속 인상으로 기준금리 3~3.25%(2008년 이후 최고). 목표 4.5%까지 추가 인상 가능성 언급. 우드의 디플레이션 우려: S&P500의 50%가 창조적 파괴 위험에 노출, 자동차 업계가 디플레이션에 대비가 부족하다고 주장. 2021년에도 인플레이션보다 디플레이션이 가장 큰 위험이라고 언급했다. 중고차 지표: 도매 중고차 가격 8월 대비 9월 3% 하락, 중고차 소매판매 8% 하락, 전년비 10% 감소. 전기차 관점: ICE 중고차 시장은 나쁘지만 전기차는 정비가 쉬워지고 정책 지원이 있어 기회라고 봤다. 혁신 능력 있는 기업만 디플레이션 속에서 성장한다고 평가하며 테슬라를 긍정적으로 언급. 인플레이션 원인: 팬데믹, 공급망 문제, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁이 주요 요인이라고 설명. 시장 전문가 의견: Paul Cruz(Kings View)는 연준 발언이 매파적이며 경기침체 가능성 증가, Ryan Detrick(Carson Group)은 추가 인상 여지를 열어뒀다고 평가. 파월 의장은 인플레이션 하락 확인 전까지 긴축 유지 입장. 메리 데일리 총재도 추가 긴축 필요성 언급. 리스크: 주택담보대출 금리 상승(8%대), 변동금리 모기지 월 상환액 증가, 달러 강세에 따른 주식 압박. 출연자 전망: 우드는 인플레이션 완화 전망을 일부 낙관하는 시각을 보였으나 연준 정책 실수 가능성을 지적.
다듬은 글
the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 points this year the fifth boost of the year in reaction to the 88.3% increase in inflation this year but financial analyst and CEO of Arc investment Cathy wood thinks that fade might be committing grave errors in addressing inflation in this manner noting that the organization might be missing some crucial information in the process welcome back to everything everyone Tesla shares the feed has consistently declared its commitment to Bringing Down inflation rates to the lowest possible level although interest rate Rises usually occur in increments of 25 basis points the US Central Bank recently announced a third consecutive 0.75 Point rate boost pushing interest rates to a range of 3 to 3.25% the highest level since 2008 the FED appears to be acting aggressively to lower the inflation rate Which is far higher than its 2% Benchmark Target in response to the announcement wood said that although the f might view this as a successful strategy for containing inflation the overall impact of this move might be extremely negative for the economy what are the potential ramifications of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike and why did wood make this statement to stay informed about everything Tesla is doing by raising the interest rate keep watching to discover out but before we do remember to like subscribe and turn on notifications the Central Bank intends to discourage spending which may lower inflation in the cost of goods and services but this will also have unintended consequences such as raising the maximum interest rate on home equity loans to 8% and possibly raising the monthly payments on newly purchased or variable rate mortgages despite Wood's belief that inflation is the primary cause of the economy's sharp decline the financial expert also believes that companies are also likely to suffer the head of deflation and this is a problem for investors to be worried about no doubt inflation is hitting hard on the economy but this time it's not as a result of the usual causitive factors but rather are a product of major economic shocks that have never been seen before unlike in previous Times Square factors like the crash in dollar value and oil prices CA inflation rates despike the cas is quite different now as issues like the pandemic the supply chain problem and the Russian Ukraine war are all major contributors to inflation this is not the first time wood is revealing her concerns about deflation when she previously spoke about the subject she claimed that 50 of the SP 500 is at risk of creative destruction and most companies are especially automakers are unprepared for the effects of deflation what added that automakers could suffer bad deflation as well as commodity deflation if proper steps are not taken in 2021 the stock investor warmed that deflation rather than inflation will be the largest risk of financial markets and the economy in the coming years according to Wood the US economy will grow less than many economists had predicted for the upcoming year while the Fade's primary focus is on lowering inflation there might be other aspects of the process that are missed downsizing may occur and based on a number of indicators deflation is progressively entering the system one such indicator is the par index which is employed according to the report wholesale used vehicle prices decreased by 3% in September from August indicating that used car retail sales declined by 8% in September from August and were down 10% year-over-year this is because the Assumption about the residual value of cars is rather high and most people bought cars in the hope that the used car priced index would continue to rise allowing them to sell these cars at a fairly High rate however this did not turn out to be the case and it's possible that fewer people are purchasing used internal combustion engine vehicles on the plus side it might be a bad market for ice cars but it might be an opportunity for electric vehicles to take over since they're becoming easier to maintain and there are new policies to promote these vehicles this isn't because there is more production of these cars rather it's because they're getting harder to maintain further furthermore based on Wood's earlier analysis of inflation Innovation might be what seges EV manufacturers after the creative destruction brought on by inflation wood predicted that automakers would struggle He also mentioned that businesses that are managing their shares in the near term and investing Less in Innovation could find it challenging to meet the upcoming Market challenge likewise automakers that have pharmaceutical products that may go out of style will need to sell these Goods at a loss or risk losing a lot of money Kathy will force a change in the kinds of businesses that can prosper no matter what the state of the economy is since she feels that only those with a competitive advantage in Innovation can prosper in the face of the deflation she anticipates will inevitably curtail economic growth given how Innovative Tesla has been Tesla fans will probably exale with relief at this point think you to think this please share your thoughts in the space provided below if you haven't already please subscribe and like the video the FED May assert that their approach is da data sensitive but most Financial professionals like as Kathy are unlikely to buy into it the FED statement according to Paul CRZ portfolio manager at Kings viw Investment Management Chicago was rather coish he also said that the price increase suggests that the markets are volatile and that there is a greater likelihood or recession in the upcoming year according to Carson group Omaha's Chief Market strategist Ryan detric the FED left the door open for many more rate hikes before the year is up he called the 7 five basis point hike fairly hawkish the dots plots indicate that the number of rape hikes is higher than anticipated and that the f is prepared to cause significant harm to the economy and possibly the stock market in order to control the runaway inflation has been observed this year Detroit claims that the economy is rapidly going down and that the fed's forecasts for it are very low he went on to say that the fed's interest rate policy might push the dollar higher which would put more pressure on stocks you seek however Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell stated that the FED is adamant about maintaining its position until it is certain that inflation rates are declining if there's one thing you know for sure it is that this committee is committed to reaching a meaningfully restrictive stance on policy and will not budge until we are certain that inflation is declining in other words the FED is not about to give up on its quest for power anytime soon additionally a number of Federal Reserve officials have stated that before any talks about loosening the policy can begin they must witness several mons of inflation that are heading toward 2% while the federal reserve's current target range for its Benchmark interest rate is 3 to 3.25% is still working toward a goal of quickly raising its Benchmark interest rate to about 4.5% several officials have also stated that it will take a lot to push him off this path and the FED is prepared to go higher if the elevated inflation rates fail to show signs of easing after this San Francisco Federal Reserve president Mary Daly discussed this in a recent interview with Bloomberg News she stated that more policy adjustments will be needed to restrain the economy sufficiently the US Central Bank may be headed for a fourth consecutive 75 basis point rate increase in the future the consequences of this move by The Fading may not be immediately apparent but Cassie World believes that they will be eventually even though this may affect not only the United States but other countries as well what do you think of the comments do you think the FedEd is making a mistake by raising interest rates to combat the rising inflation let us know below Governor Christopher Waller confirmed this he stated that until we see any signs of inflation beginning to moderate we don't know how we pause there is a lot of optimism that inflation is gradually easing
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