저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 하원 통과 예정 감세 법안(큰 아름다운 법안)이 재정적자를 키워 국채 금리를 끌어올리고, 이는 미 정부 부채 문제를 비선형적으로 악화시킨다고 주장. 10년물 4.5%에서 올해 말 5%, 30년물 6.25~6.5%까지 상승 가능, 국가신용등급 하향 등 연쇄 효과로 금·비트코인 수요가 늘 것이라 봄. 비트코인은 규제 환경 개선과 기관 진입으로 역사적 진입점이며 11만 달러 돌파 시 상승 가속, 15만 달러 도달 가능이라는 낙관론. 단, 사회자 David(크립토 전문가) 발언은 제외.
다듬은 글
There is a nonlinear relationship between the deficit and interest rates which drives up the debt problem in a nonlinear way and it gets away from you and you can't fix it. And that's what the market is telling us is that the current bill that's being passed out of the house is showing such an extraordinarily high deficit that the market does not want to buy the debt from the government.
Rates are now climbing and that creates a massive problem for the government. Okay, Chimath, uh, you've been tweeting about this. I think we have to be careful here. This thing is like anti-doge. And so what will the implications be as rates go to those levels? You'll delever from the United States.
You'll sell US debt. You'll own things like gold and Bitcoin. If you're curious about what's happening to gold and Bitcoin, they started to spike in the last few days. The US government is about to send Bitcoin's price sky high. Billionaire investor and all-in podcast host Chamath Polyhapatia could not hold his tongue any longer in this clip.
And he just issued a big warning for all those who will listen. He says, "Get into Bitcoin now because when you realize what's about to happen to government debt, there's really only one direction this asset goes and it's up." Basically, the US government is about to pass a bill called the big beautiful bill.
It's a tax cut bill and according to Chimath, this is going to balloon government debt and when that happens, Bitcoin's price will explode. Now, understand Chimath, he's a big Trump supporter, but he can't hold his tongue any longer on this. It is Chimath's opinion that this bill is not ideal by any means because government debt will go crazy because of this bill.
But because of this, for Bitcoin holders, Bitcoin's price can really only go up. Smash the like button if you agree. Listen to Chimoth articulate his views, and you tell me what you think in the comments below. There is a nonlinear relationship between the deficit and interest rates, which drives up the debt problem in a nonlinear way, and it gets away from you, and you can't fix it.
And that's what the market is telling us is that the current bill that's being passed out of the house is showing such an extraordinarily high deficit that the market does not want to buy the debt from the government. Rates are now climbing and that creates a massive problem for the government. Okay, Chimath, uh you've been tweeting about this.
Uh we thought we were going to get uh an administration and maybe um some focus from the government that we would be have more austerity measures, balance the budget. Now it looks like we're going to pour gasoline on the fire. What are your thoughts? I think we have to be careful here. So Jason, the political calculus will be for the president to decide how much credit he actually wants to take for this bill because even though it has his name on it, the contents of the bill are different in actual facts than what I think he intended.
And what I mean by that is when you look inside of what happened in the 11th hour last night, it's disappointing. This thing is like anti-D Doge. If Doge was meant to be a reflection of the American voting population's desire for meaningful reform in government, cost controls, some form of austerity, and to get this debt spiral in check.
This is the opposite of that. What happened was in the 11th hour, you had a handful of people abstain. You had one person that passed away in the last few days. You had one person that fell asleep on the floor of the house. So, he wasn't even woken up for the vote. And in the middle of all of that chaos, what happened was all kinds of things were added and attached and cancelled at the last minute because what happens is you have to have these puts and takes as Freeberg described.
If you want to spend over here, you have to find a cut over there. But I think what happened was there was really not a lot of financial literacy used to decide what to actually put in and what to cut. And that lack of discipline is going to create I think a negative set of consequences. So what are those consequences?
Today the tenure is around 4.5%. At the rate in which it's escalating since liberation day, by the end of this year, we're going to be past 5%. The 30 year is on a rate now to get past 6 and a quarter, maybe even reach 6 1/2%. Those are way beyond what most people thought was a reasonable place to be for the United States economy.
And so what will the implications be as rates go to those levels? You'll delever from the United States. You'll sell US debt. You'll own things like gold and Bitcoin. If you're curious about what's happening to gold and Bitcoin, they started to spike in the last few days. You'll have ratings organizations that add to this cascade by downgrading the United States.
That happened on Friday. you'll have very smart people starting to signal that this is a much harder problem than they initially thought. That's how I personally interpreted Elon's comments over the last few days. So, what was the House supposed to do? I think what they were supposed to do was implement some form of austerity.
They were supposed to by the will of the people pass a recision bill. They were given that recision bill. It was just $9 billion. They couldn't even pass a $9 billion recision and instead they passed a $4 trillion inflation to our debt. Now you hand this to the Senate. The Senate is in a very difficult place as well.
Do they want to quote unquote claim victory and say, "Here you go, President Trump. Here's your bill." But they'll further bastardize this thing and it will be even further away from what I think benefits MAGA and benefits Main Street. So who does it benefit? Current course and speed right now. This bill is about traditional Republicans and traditional Democrats circling the wagons and putting on a platter a set of things that I think will be hurtful to average Americans.
You're going to see energy prices spike. You're gutting the number of electrons that will be available for things like AI. You're going to increase Medicare prices and the math is wrong. So when you sensitize this thing to a 4 and a half or five or five and a quarter rate, so meaning not what the CBO used but the real conditions on the ground, this thing is an albatross.
And I think unfortunately for President Trump's agenda and for a MAGA movement, this is the worst of all conditions. The financial markets will punish this. And then the last thing I'll say is now to top it all off, I think that Jerome Powell will see the writing on the wall. Many aspects of this thing are inflationary and if they're not handled well by the Senate, he has a lot of room to actually increase interest rates.
So, I would just say that the Senate has an incredibly difficult job. I think the president has an even more difficult job about what to do right now. But the House did nobody favors. They did not do anybody a favor yesterday. Guys, Bitcoin is at a historic entry point right now. When you understand when you take a look at everything going on, I mean, you can only come to the conclusion that these financial experts on TV, they hate to admit it, but even they admit Bitcoin's price goes much higher.
I mean, we talk about this stuff all the time, but it's nice to hear more people realizing what's about to happen. And what do you think, David, when you talk about the regulatory environment, which seems much more friendly. what specifics have you seen that stood out to you and that are good for crypto investors going forward?
Sure. Yeah. First and foremost, if you look at the SEC stance on crypto uh with this new uh administration, it's it's much more supportive and wanting to work with the crypto industry compared to the prior uh SEC administration. So, that's definitely helpful. You see some political will uh in Congress to to pass stable coin uh legislation with the Genius Act.
Uh, and you also see even state governments such as New Hampshire and Texas pushing through a strategic Bitcoin reserve even at the state level. So, it's really across the board where you went from no regulation and kind of the not understanding the rules of the road to we're putting in the rules of the road in place right now and it's making everyone more comfortable.
the crypto industry, institutional investors, if they can understand that the regulatory risk is gone, the reputational risk is is diminishing, they'll feel much more comfortable to allocate to Bitcoin. The fact is we are at a historic entry point for Bitcoin right now. We are totally derisked. As Michael Sailor says here, this is kind of historic entry point because all of the risk has been stripped off the asset.
like you pretty much know Wall Street's going to embrace it, the US government's going to embrace it and banks and the US going to embra embrace it, which means that all the other banks will embrace it. You already know all those things and yet the market is really skittish based upon uh concerns about uh tariffs, you know, this the disposition of the US economy, the interest rate forward graph.
So you see the interest rates have pulled in 30 40 50 basis points and and we're in this uh in this uh macro riskoff zone. When that flips I think Bitcoin will rip forward with a vengeance. The fact is once Bitcoin reclaims 110K things are really going to start picking up. 150,000 Bitcoin this year is practically programmed.
Listen to this. See you tomorrow. How high do you set price targets? I mean, I've had people on saying 120, 150, 250 by next summer. I mean, what seems realistic or range that people talk about? I mean, I, you know, don't want to quite get into the price targets. We're generally uh believers long term up and to the right, of course, but uh I think 150 uh is is right around the corner, especially the sailor uh strategy lead and uh adding into their corporate treasuries and I think that will also uh provide a lift as well. So I think 150 is very doable in
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