저자: StanleyDruckenmiller · 외국인
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Druckenmiller 클립 인용: 차트는 참고용이고 75~80%는 펀더멘털 기반이며 차트로 검증한다. 진행자는 2026년 크립토 펀더멘털이 역대 최고라고 주장하고, 10월 10일 바이낸스발 연쇄청산을 블랙스완으로 설명하며 기술적 붕괴로 기관 자금이 멈췄을 뿐이라 본다. 200주선 부근 약 5.7만 달러 도달 가능성을 언급하며 하락 후 매수 기회로 본다.
다듬은 글
When I make an investment decision, it's usually sometimes, believe it or not, the idea comes from the charts. But, I will never invest just on a chart. Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who has been bullish on Bitcoin since 2020, I'm a bit of a dinosaur, but I have warmed up to the fact that um Bitcoin could be an asset class
[clears throat] that has a lot of attraction to it as a store of value. Perfectly explains in this clip from years ago, perfectly explains why an asset like Bitcoin hasn't exploded yet. But, the only variable is time. You see, even though the setup for crypto has never been stronger, there's macro money printing in 2026, positive legislation coming, even the SEC is tokenizing all of traditional finance and bringing it on chain.
Tokenization is an innovation. Fundamentally, the outlook for crypto in 2026 and beyond has never been stronger. Yet, sometimes it's the technical analysis, the technical setup, that prevents big money from investing in a fundamentally bullish asset class, but that will not last forever. Let's watch this 2-minute clip, then I'll react.
Yeah, the technical versus fundamentals. You're making an investment decision or a trading decision, how do you how do you piece it together? How much time do you spend looking at charts today? Okay, so every night at about 4:30, I get 270 two charts. Um they cover um just about every group in the stock market, every commodity, every currency cross I'm interested in, every fixed income market around the world, and they're basically daily, weekly, and monthly.
Daily is supposed to predict 8 to 20 days, weekly 8 to 20 weeks, and um monthly 8 to 20 months. Um When I make an investment decision, it's usually sometimes, believe it or not, the idea comes from the charts. But, I will never invest just on a chart. But, if I really like a fundamental thesis and the chart stinks, I won't do it.
There's you know, my my old boss used to say in terms of stocks, I apologize to women in the audience, there's 6,000 girls out there, you know, if 20 or 30 of them look great, I don't need to bother with the rest, and you can always find, at least in terms of equities, 20 or 30 great fundamental stories that the chart looks good, but I always assume that the market may know something, and I've always had a great deal of respect for the market.
So, I'd say 75% to 80% of my ideas come from fundamental, and then they're verified by the chart. So, this is the key. This is what nobody else in traditional finance or in crypto realize, but this is the speed bump right now, like big money is taking a pause with Bitcoin and crypto. It's fundamentally, it is truly never been a better outlook for crypto going forward, fundamentally.
But, due to manipulation, due to what I would call a mini black swan event, nobody saw it coming on October 10th, which literally forced sellers. It forced all the leverage traders forced sell at the same time, which broke the technical chart. In Bitcoin's history, anytime we break below and get a confirmation below the 50-week moving average, historically, for the last 15 years, that has signaled a new bear market.
And then the bear market usually signifies an end when we can touch the 200 week, which is right now about $57,000 Bitcoin. All this big institutional money, which was ready to finally go in because crypto is finally getting regulated, was, I would guess, about to pull the trigger. But, then they look at the technicals, and they say, "Whoa, what happened here?
What does the market know that I don't?" And not that crypto or Bitcoin is suddenly bad, but as Stanley Druckenmiller said, which is a great insight. I'm going to like this. I love this perspective. Great insight on how the institutions think. There's probably 20 to 30 better things that are fundamentally bullish as well as technically bullish.
Why would we Maybe let's pause. Maybe let's see how this plays out when the technicals aren't looking good. But, what do we know? If you subscribe to Altcoin Daily, we understand what exactly happened here. Why do I say this was a black swan event? I loved this perspective in my last interview uh with crypto expert, billionaire Arthur Hayes.
This is going to get complicated. If you If you're not a trader, if you're not in the trenches with DeFi, decentralized finance, you might not understand any everything, but this is what exactly happened on October 10th. So, you know, October 10th was sort of this crash on Binance and some of the other centralized exchange.
It was a It was a crash across the crypto ecosystem um started on Binance for some idiosyncratic reasons. I have a you know, there's there's a lot of conspiracy opinions that CZ and there's this cabal of market makers, and they, you know, came up with a secret scheme to everybody over because the prices on Bitcoin and altcoins dropped so precipitously quickly, but it's very simple.
There are a bunch of rules that every exchange operates under, and they publish documents that nobody reads. And I've been doing this for a long time, and I've written a lot of these doc- documents, and a lot of my clients at BitMEX didn't read anything that I said until something happened, and they say, "What the Why did this happen on the exchange like this?" And I go, "Did you read that document that explained how this particular feature of this product worked, or our policy if this or that happened?" And then people just look, "Oh, no." Like like something was surprised.
Well, Binance had a policy for how they marked their um margin positions if you you were using uh cross collateral, right? So, I used some stable coin to margin a position where, you know, that stable coin is not the base currency. And because they were marking specifically Ethereum and some other stable coins to their own market, which is less liquid than the global market on Curve, somebody exploited that.
And they were able to dump a small amount of money relative to the size of the liquidation it caused, which basically caused cascading liquidations on on Binance uh on sort of these margin currencies. And because of the system that they employed, uh number one, market makers had to de-risk and remove liquidity from the markets.
[clears throat] Binance is forced liquidating a bunch of people at the same time, so there's not a lot of liquidity in the markets. And to top it off, they had a net tech issue with their their API, so people couldn't see their positions, couldn't trade, and so you basically had this risk-off event where altcoins went down, you know, 85, 90 90%.
A lot of clients were levered, or they had a delta neutral position, meaning one long and one short on Binance or another venue, and they they lost money. A lot of these looping strategies that people were doing on DeFi protocols, which basically had these like, you know, leverage positions upon leverage positions uh in these uh protocols, those were also affected because the market prices of the underlying collateral went down so quickly, they got impacted.
So, you saw a lot of these um lending protocols uh suffer some catastrophic failures, and you know, went out of business. And so, you had traders who I really I really over-leveraged traders go out of business. You had market-making firms who didn't understand how these things worked on the exchange, you know, they suffered massive losses, and so you have this massive um removal of liquidity from the crypto markets, and that obviously adversely affected a lot of altcoins.
And now, understanding this, what does this now mean to me? To me, this says opportunity. The big money, which was ready to pull the trigger, is now unsure because of what exactly happened here. Maybe we do dip lower. Maybe Maybe the confidence in the market is still shook, and we need either a time moving up farther.
But, when there's blood in the streets, when the market hasn't realized something that you realize, to me, that is the time to increase or take out the position. Give me your thoughts down below. What do you think? Seriously, what do you think? Responding to as many as I can. On Altcoin Daily, we drop one video per day, keeping you informed, giving you an edge investing in crypto by keeping you in the know. So, like always, see you tomorrow.
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