저자: JimRogers · 외국인
요약 보기
로저스는 비트코인을 실용성 없는 투기 수단으로 보고 보유·공매도하지 않으며 언젠가 사라질 것이라 본다. 미국은 과도한 부채로 영국처럼 결국 나쁘게 끝날 것이므로 미국 국채를 보유하지 않고 달러도 단기 증서로만 보유한다. 달러 대체 통화 움직임이 혼란을 낳을 것으로 보며, 전쟁 중이지만 러시아 투자에 긍정적이고 개인적으로 관심이 있다고 밝혔다. 미국 국적이라 러시아 투자는 불가하다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
Some say with these digital currencies, Bitcoin, the new gold for some, um, is that causing maybe gold prices to be rather lower because investors are more also investing in Bitcoin nowadays. Well, I certainly see the price of Bitcoin has gone up a lot. I certainly wish I had bought Bitcoin at $2 or $3 or something.
Uh, I have not bought any of those, whatever they are. uh currencies, if you want to call them currencies, because I don't see any real practical use. Now, they're great trading vehicles, obviously, and some people, some traders have done extremely well. I'm not a trader, which is one reason I didn't buy them, but the main reason is I just don't see I don't see the use for Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, whatever you want to call them.
Um, but some people who are traders love them, as you know, and they trade them all the time. I I maybe someday I'll be converted. I'll be the last convert. When I buy When I buy Bitcoin, you probably should get out and run. Uh, but I have not bought any yet. As I say, I have not bought any cryptocurrencies.
I have not shorted any cryptoc currencies. Um I wish I had obviously but I would suspect that someday they will disappear too like many other fads many other trading vehicles in history but I don't and maybe just because I'm an old fool but I don't see the use for crypto except as trading vehicles. But there are many things you could trade.
You could trade cotton. You could trade anything you want but not not me. Inflationary story. So now the inflation in the US comparing it to China. Who does the smarter move? Are the Chinese smarter in containing inflation or is the American policies the better one? Well inflation always results when people print money.
And in the last few weeks, months, years, many people have printed money, especially the US. Uh, and the US runs up huge debt. I I just I cannot figure out why those guys in Washington, I guess they can't count or they don't want to count or something because the American debt is I mean, it's just astonishing to me.
It's astonishing that it's so high, but it keeps going higher and higher and higher. Historically, that ends badly. It always has ended badly. And I presume it's going to end badly again. You know, if this were 1925, Britain was the richest, most powerful country in the world. And they ran up huge debts and 50 years later, they were bankrupt.
Literally bankrupt. The Bank of England had to borrow huge amounts of money. The country was bankrupt and they had to start over. Um I mean I have read enough history to know that the US is going to end very very badly. I'm not sure when. I hope not anytime soon. But I know it always has ended extremely badly for the people who do it.
And you know, I have two daughters, essentially teenage daughters. It's not a good time to be a young American. It's a good time to be an old American. So, I'm glad I'm old at this point in history. China is holding a lot of US debt in terms of bonds. So, uh, would you think there's any moves from the Chinese government to, uh, to kind of change the way the US bond market is being available and that China might be able to kind of pay a little bit off from US debt?
Well, I I know China built up a lot of debt, US debt, um owned a lot of US debt, uh at a time when they were develing it into US dollar debt, which was a wise thing to do apparently at the time. Uh I certainly would not buy US debt. Uh I have US dollars. I own a lot of US dollars, but I own them in short-term paper uh because I don't want to be a creditor of the US uh in any permanent way.
So I I mean I can add, I can subtract and I I don't know how America can ever pay those huge debts that we have built up and they keep getting bigger and bigger and I don't see a future for the US in the debt market except problems just like the British had once upon a time. you know, you weren't around a 100 years ago and me neither.
But I know what happened when the Brits built up gigantic debt and it was not good. Not good for them. It's not good for the world. And I'm afraid I mean many countries have gone through this historically. And I don't see any escape for the US except big big problems down the road. You've never it's a good time to be old.
You've never been a big advocate of the dollar. Now the bricks the bricks countries or the block of bricks is growing and uh they have thought about building their own currency. Is that something which you would consider as a smart move of bricks starting their own currency or payment system? Well I know that the world needs a competitor to the dollar.
Let's put it that way. And I'm probably not the only person who knows that that the world needs something to compete with the US dollar. And yes, I know that they're talking about it. They have not come up with something viable yet, something permanent. They probably will, but that's going to cause more turmoil in the US.
Uh, in the world, not the US. in the US and the world. It's certainly going to cause more turmoil as people start switching to other currencies. And I don't particularly like it cuz I'm going to have to deal with it. We all are. But it's coming. So if you know what's going to replace the dollar, don't announce it.
Give me a note because I want to I want to get prepared. Is it a good time maybe at the moment to travel to Russia and look for for potential assets in Russia since they have been kind of cut off from the markets? Is there anything you would say Russia might be something interesting? Looking beyond the bricks uh block.
Well, yes, except there's a war. Uh you investing during war is sometimes very profitable if you invest in the right side. Uh yes, I I am looking at and contemplating investing in Russia. Uh I see what's happening there. Moscow seems to be changing. Moscow seems to understand that communism is not a great system.
It's not a great way to run run the world, much less your own country. So yes, I am more optimistic about Russia than I have been in a while. The depth in Russia is far as far as I understand is way lower compared to the US debt. How can they manage their country? Uh not that bad obviously if they do.
Well, I don't know what's going to happen there. Uh I know that the history of Russia is has lots of turmoil at times and they are seems to me that they're leading to more turmoil now but also the history of Russia is long periods of great peace and prosperity and at times in history has been nobody richer than Russian farmers at times.
um if you were a huge Russian agricultural monarch or whatever, you were extremely rich. So, and I know they have vast vast properties, huge amounts of land. Uh if you haven't been there, you don't have to go. You can read about it, but there is lots of property out there, huge amounts in the Siberia.
in Siberia. Uh I've driven across Russia two or three times and there's a lot of land. There's a lot of land. Um and it's interesting. It's interesting to watch and look. Um I don't want to live there, but there are lots of people out there in Siberia and lots of assets in Siberia. So I I'm not investing in Russia now because of the war.
You know, I'm American, so that's not allowed. But uh if I were not American, I would certainly be looking at putting money into Russia. Now, is maybe uh your President Donald Trump, is he maybe kind of helping you in that way, bringing potentially uh Putin to the table and making things possible again?
Uh the situation with Mr. Trump is he doesn't know what he's going to do. You know, he wakes up in the morning, watches the TV, and then decides what to do depending on what's happening on the TV. So, I hope that he has a very sound plan for all of us in the future. But, you know, Margaret Thatch, I mean, we more or less knew what she would do if something happened.
Mr. Trump, in my view, doesn't know himself what to do if something happens. He decides on this burrow of the moment. I hope he knows what he's doing. It will not be good for the world if he's helped to shelter. We might agree to end the war would be something peaceful, something positive in a way. Is the rare earth deal with the Ukraine something you could see maybe potentially making sense?
Well, look, some of the things Mr. Trump says make a lot of sense. Uh, historically, he talks about getting rid of NATO. I mean, I don't quite know why we need NATO, why the world needs it. I don't know why Europe needs it. I don't know who they're planning to fight against. Maybe it's there to fight Russia again.
Uh, but I don't I don't see the need for it. So, I would agree with Mr. Trump. We need to do something about NATO, including getting rid of it. Uh I don't know who they're going to fight. Maybe we're all going to go to war with Russia someday. I don't think we're all going to fight Germany again. You know, I don't think there's much need for NATO in that sense, except a lot of people have jobs because of NATO and they want to keep their jobs.
And that seems to be the main rationale for NATO that I can see. I don't see any need for NATO myself. But and if Trump does something about it, it might be good. It might be bad. We will see because who knows what Mr. Trump will do. As I say, he doesn't know what he will do. Talking to the Germans in Germany, they seem to be very afraid about Russia invading Europe now, invading Germany.
And you said as well, NATO is something we don't need. So what do you make of that situation that Russia really would go over to to further and other countries in Europe? Well, if there's going to be war in Europe, we need NATO. Yes. But I for one don't see a war in Europe coming unless America starts it.
Uh America seems to be more inclined to war than other countries, at least historically. So I don't see a need for NATO. But let's see what Mr. Trump does. As I say, from the way I read Mr. Trump, he doesn't know what he wants either. He changes all the time depending on what's happening in the world.
So we will see. But I would be quite happy to stop paying for NATO. You know, America pays for most of it. American taxpayers pay for most of it. So I'd be happy to stop. But I doubt if that's going to happen soon.
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