NVDA Stock Analysis 2019 (Be Cautious on Nvidia) 🔴

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엔비디아 주주서한 분석: 2019 회계연도 4분기 매출이 가이던스 27억달러에서 22억달러로 하향되었고, 게임·데이터센터 부문이 모두 부진하다고 봄. 원인 1: 게임 부문은 암호화폐 붐 이후 수요 냉각, 중국 수요 약화, 신형 튜링 고가 GPU 가격에 대한 소비자 저항이 겹침. 재고 조정은 완료된 것으로 보임. 신형 칩 출시를 미뤄 채널 재고를 소진하려는 조치로 평가하지만, 경쟁사 AMD가 아키텍처 측면에서 앞설 수 있다는 우려 제기. 원인 2: 데이터센터 부문은 분기 말 일부 계약이 종료되지 않아 매출이 줄었고, 고객들이 신중해진 탓으로 설명. 진행자는 일시적 약세로 보며 하반기에 계약이 체결되면 가이던스가 상향될 수 있다고 봄. 실적 영향: 재고 충당금 등으로 약 1.2억달러의 매출총이익 타격이 예상되며, 분기 적자 가능성에 대비하라고 언급. 주가 및 전망: 주가는 약 150달러 부근으로, 고점 대비 약 57% 하락한 상태. 200일 이동평균선 부근에서 지지될 것으로 보며, 실적 발표 전까지 140~150달러 박스권 예상. 2019 회계연도는 2018년보다 수익성이 낮지만 하반기에 회복될 것이며, 2020년에 본격 성장 재개 가능성 제시. 투자 조언: 진행자는 직접 매수를 권유하지 않으나, 2019년을 분할매수(dollar cost averaging)의 기회로 보고 수년 뒤 큰 수익 가능성을 언급. 다음 실적 발표는 2월 14일 예정. 리스크: 거시경제 둔화 시 하락 가능성, 실적 추가 미스 또는 대규모 서프라이즈 여부에 따라 방향이 달라질 수 있음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. so with Nvidia stock reporting their earnings next week I thought this would be a great opportunity to go through a shareholder letter that they released recently where they outlined some of their struggles in the last year and the reasons why they lowered their Guidance the two big things that stand out from this letter are that the first is fourth quarter Revenue expected to be 2.2 billion versus guidance of 2.7 billion which already lowered from the last earnings report if you recall and the second is that gaming and data set and revenue will be below company's expectations so before we go any fur further drop a huge like on this video guys and if you're brand new to the channel join the community we're almost at 10,000 subscribers strong and I'd love to have you on board but anyways getting back to the topic so nvidia's Core Business really is around its graphics cards and data centers but the problem is based on this report that we're seeing data centers and their Graphics division have both suffered in the last quarter gaming is something Nvidia typically does really well in as well most Gamers love to purchase high-end Nvidia Graphics chips but unfortunately this quarter was not as strong as expected now in my opinion the most concerning thing here is that the revenue was decreased again from 2.7 billion projected 2.2 billion projected now if you look at the same quarter of last year for NVIDIA which is Q4 for NVIDIA we can see here that revenue of 2.91 billion was reported which was up 34% from 2.17 billion a year before that and up 10% from 2.64 billion in the previous quarter now this is very strong growth in 2018 but but when we compare this to Q4 2019 we will actually be posting Revenue growth that is down year-over-year and quarter over quarter revenue of 2.2 billion will bring us to around 25% down year-over-year down roughly $710 million and quarter over quarter will also be down around 31% or $980 million so this means we'll be going from around 3.18 billion last quarter to around 2.2 billion roughly this quarter and speaking of last quarter that's when Nvidia actually had record Revenue coming from the data center segment so this is a bit concerning to see that growth is slowing down here so decline of 31% in their revenue is huge and as a result the stock did adjust accordingly did correct massively from its highs and now it's sitting at around $150 per share roughly so now looking at the shareholder letter the first thing that they addressed was the gaming sector concerns so as you can see here they acknowledge that a big part of this decline is the cool off after the crypto boom now even though this is the case they have accounted for that and have a adjusted their inventory accordingly to expectations however a new concern has come up which is in regards to China where demand for NVIDIA gaming gpus has weakened also their sales of certain high-end gpus using nvidia's new teering architecture were also lower than expected now this seems to be due to the higher price tag that Nvidia posted for these graphics cards which consumers don't seem to be willing to pay a premium for right now so clearly what I can see here is that Nvidia overestimated the growth and adoption of their new chips and their gaming segment in general and as a result now they're getting a reality check and they're going to have to revise guidance which they have already down much lower than they initially predicted they also stated here that they delayed the planned production ramp of several new products to allow excess Channel inventory to deplete so this could be a good thing for a video stock in the back half of this calendar year and that's because they do have new technology that they want to release but they first want to clear out inventory which is a good move in my opinion but it is going to hurt them because now AMD their biggest competitor in this segment is going to be able to Leap Frog them in terms of their architecture in terms of the products offered and in video might actually have to play a catchup game here at AMD so it is something shareholders should make note of so I mean there is good and bad points to having the new Chips being delayed if Invader releases these at proper price tags people will adopt and buy these chips and in turn their revenue will be stronger than expected but if they wake too long then EMD could benefit from this DeLay So data center is the other segment that the shareholder addressed so the culprit for the decline here is because a number of deals in the company's forecast did not close in the last month of the quarter as customers shifted to a more cautious approach now Nvidia clearly believes this is just short-term weakness which if true could help them post very strong numbers like I said in the second half of calendar year 2019 so what could happen is we may go from lowering guidance which they did have in this past quarter to actually raising guidance in the back half of this calendar year which could again push a lot more momentum into the stock and a lot more Bulls back into the stock so really in summary what I'd say is that the deals that didn't close in the last month of last quarter should most likely close in this current quarter or in the next quarter which in turn will affect their future earnings like I said in the back half of calendar year 2019 now because of all this they do expect their Gap and non-gaap gross margin to be impacted by around $120 million in charges for excess Dam and other components so the bottom line here is don't be surprised with a loss this quarter and here's also a chart that they released summarizing their guidance from what they initially projected to what the revised guidance is now and as you can see from this the revenue is going to be down projected gross margin supposed to be down operating income supposed to be the same gross profit is up slightly and the Gap tax rate is down so what I would say here is keep in mind that even though they did release these projections for the quarter and the upcoming earnings report nothing is really set in stone things could change we still could have a Miss we still could have a beat so they're trying to caution investors here to not make a judgment on their position based solely on what they've released here but pretty much in my opinion the stock has already adjusted to what they've released here to a $2.2 billion revenue for the quarter so unless they miss even more or they beat significantly I don't think we're going to see too much of price movement here now the next thing I want to show you is the EPS estimates for 2019 but keep in mind these are just estimates and anything can and will change however it is important to make note of these numbers and be aware of these numbers because it could influence your decision to in invest in a company like Nvidia so as you can see fiscal year 2019 looks to be much less profitable than fiscal year 2018 however the back half of calendar year 2019 should help us get back closer to 2018 levels now keep in mind that some of the 2018 results are skewed because of the crypto boom that we had with Bitcoin and now that we're getting back to actual reality of the business you know data centers Graphics gaming the stock may be in for a slower year this year in 2019 with the stock price not moving much higher than $150 per share but I think 2020 could be the year where Nvidia stock gets back on track for good growth and as a result starts moving higher as well so if you're looking to build a position in Nvidia you haven't open a position or you already have a position open 2019 may be the year to actually dollar cost average to get a good cost basis on this stock and potentially a few years out is when you could potentially see some pretty big gains on this position now I'm not telling you to buy the stock but I'm just giving you my thinking behind what I would do if I were to invest in Nvidia right now so like I said Nvidia stock is currently hovering at around $150 per share which coincidentally happens to be where its 200 moving average is on the weekly now we had a big sellout from the highs near the 300s and we've since corrected over 57% from those highs now I think that we'll stay at this level around 140 150 until earnings report until we can decide on a direction unless there's nothing good or bad that comes out of this earnings report now it could be a very similar situation to Facebook stock or Apple stock so if you look at their chart starts sh you can see that both Facebook and apple hovered around his 200 day moving average on the weekly for a couple of weeks and then it started to move higher after their earnings report but of course the market has been acting a lot more bullish lately and this has helped these stocks recover so unless we have some sort of macroeconomic downturn again I think Nvidia will most likely follow this trend as well so guys I hope you enjoyed this video hope this was insightful to you remember drop a huge like 150 likes on this video let me know if you're an Nvidia stock shareholder and how you're positioning yourself for the upcoming earnings report which I believe will be on February 14th this year either way guys