Nouriel Roubini Talks Fed Policy | Bloomberg Talks

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AI·기술 혁신이 미국 잠재성장률을 2%에서 4% 수준으로 끌어올릴 것이며, 이에 따라 주식시장 수익률도 증가할 전망이다. 기술 호황의 성장 효과(약 200bp)가 관세·나쁜 정책의 악영향(최대 50bp)보다 크다는 'tech trumps tariffs' 논리를 제시. 금리 인상 여부는 경제·주식시장에 큰 영향이 없다고 봄. 금리(연준 기준금리·장기금리)는 생산성 향상으로 실질 균형금리가 높아져 상쇄될 것이라고 언급.

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01. [; US firms racing for cash to fund the AI build-out. Big tech spending on artificial intelligence expected to pass 700 billion for the year from just a handful of companies. Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Macro Associates writing on this trajectory, US exceptionalism strengthens rather than fades. Equity valuations need not rest on bubble dynamics and should deliver solid returns despite episodic volatility.

02. Nouriel, join us now for more. Nouriel, good morning. Good morning. Really beautiful moment with Senator McDavid McCormick leaving the studio. You come again and he said, "You're no longer Dr. Doom anymore. You're Dr. Boom." What's changed? Uh what changed has been essentially the most important technological innovation in human history.

03. Uh while everybody is talking about AI in general, AI this is only one of the 12 or more indices of the future. You have AI, you have semiconductors, you have robotic automation and humanoid robots. You have fusion energy, you have quantum, you have defense tech, you have space exploration, fintech, agtech.

04. Uh you have new material science, new cryptography. Really is a Cambrian explosion of innovations. Each one of them, I have to say, powered by AI, but they're separate verticals, very separate indices. Space exploration exploitation is separate from AI, even if it's fed by AI. So, I'm going to see US potential growth for the last two decades has been barely 2%.

05. I expected that by the end of this decade is going to be at least 4% and the data already suggests that productivity since COVID has doubled in spite of COVID. It's already closer to 2% plus. And with potential growth higher, there'll be a significant increase also in equity market returns. How concerned are you about bumps along the way?

06. Christine Lagarde talking about the financial risk that comes along with the likes of mythos or some of the technological advancements that could potentially torpedo the financial system, the payment system as we know it. I mean, how much is that potentially a risk on the way to this much more prosperous future?

07. Well, there are two types of risk, you know, I wrote a book in 2022 about mega threats where I spoke about stagflationary risk, things that reduce growth and increase inflation. While technology does the opposite, increases growth, reduces inflation. Of course, having tariffs, having restrictions to migration, having large budget deficits, playing with independence of the Fed, rule of law, you name it, all those things can be actually reducing growth and increasing inflation.

08. And there are risks coming from AI, existential risk or risk having financial attack, types of instability, you know. I've said since April of last year that tech trumps tariffs because the impact on growth of tech is 200 basis points, maybe you're going from 2 to 4%. And if you add in a realistic scenario where market discipline constrains bad policies, because it did constrain them, then the downside from bad policies at best 50 basis points.

09. So, the ratio of 200 to 50, 4 to 1. So, tech trumps tariff. And I said also tech trumps Trump's temper tantrums, too, because all those things are constrained again by market discipline. Every time he's in Tallo mode, lashes out, then the market punishes him and he goes back to chickening out. It happened after April 2nd, it happened after Greenland, it happened after war with Iran.

10. So, market discipline is a very powerful force to constrain bad policies. Do you think it's appropriate for the Fed to hike once or even twice? Uh it's it's possible. I would say the economy is going to strengthen. Inflation probably is going to slow down because now oil prices are not at 100, they're closer to 80.

11. And therefore, food prices, fertilizer, things are going to gradually fall even if it'll be more relaxed. So, it's kind of like a a close call. But I would say it it doesn't really matter very much because, you know, the economy is powered by AI and technology and these massive tailwinds. And they don't depend very much on policy rates.

12. If policy rates are 50 basis points higher or lower, I don't think the tech boom is going to really matter very much. And we already saw during the war with Iran, They went all at 100. The stock market reached all-time highs in spite of that, in spite of worries about what the Fed does. So, I would say people obsessed with the Fed, whether it's 50 basis points higher or whether it's right now, what's the difference?

13. The key story is tech boom, and that's going to be the most important first-order impact of anything else. That's the headline from this conversation, Nouriel. Always fantastic to catch up with this. Just to beg the obvious question, what does hiking interest rates actually achieve? Well, and right now the stock market seems to be moving on.

14. Does it actually slow anything down? Ultimately, a task force will answer that question, John. Going to run a task force, do you fancy that? Oh, you know, he wants to change things, but I would say one important point. He argues seconds. I've got one very quick and important point. argues that because of productivity growth, Fed funds rate should be lower because inflation is going to be lower, but the potential growth is higher, the equilibrium real rate, what short and long is higher.

15. So, there will be a bit of a wash on the policy rate and on the long rate. Nouriel Roubini, that's always good to see you. Thank you. Nouriel Roubini there, Roubini Macro Associates.