Fed will keep rates higher longer: Ed Yardeni

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중동 긴장은 이란-이스라엘 간 제한적 보복으로 진정 국면, 직접 전면전 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 연준은 올해 금리 인하가 거의 없거나 최대 1~2회에 그칠 것으로 예상하며, 시장의 과도한 인하 기대가 조정 중. 기술주는 지난 상승 후 이익실현과 숨고르기 필요, 5~10% 조정 가능성 언급. 10년물 금리 5% 돌파는 가능성 낮다고 봄. 인플레이션은 주거비 제외 시 2.5% 수준으로 연준 목표에 근접.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. our good friend Ed yardeni president of yardeni research Ed good is always to see you let's why don't we start with the geopolitical issues they they remain there though do you take some comfort from the fact that what appears to have happened overnight was a very measured retaliation for Iran's strikes on Israel last weekend well I think since the start of the Middle East war in October 7th when Hamas attacked Israel uh there's been increasing concerns that push will to shove uh between Israel and Iran and it certainly did when Iran attacked Israel with that barrage of aerial missiles and and drones and the Israelis have uh pushed back with their retaliation but it looks as though both of them are signaling to one another that they really don't want to get into a major war at this time so I think Israel is going to have to continue to deal with Iran's proxies in Lebanon and in u Gaza uh and for now at least uh it's not going to be a direct war with Iran but um it's the foga war you never know yeah you never know what could happen let me turn let me turn if I might and as we always must to the FED uh should we just quit talking about the FED for a little while and because it seems like they're going to sort of take the rest of the year off well that's exactly what I wrote yesterday in my so-called quick takes I said you know what uh I I had a picture of a hammock and I said you know maybe the fomc can can exactly what you said just take the the rest of the year off chill out uh enjoy their vacation and come back after the election after the election there's a couple days later there's an fomc meeting they could come back for that it does feel like we we commentators have milked this uh this weed past the point that it's producing anything I mean it it appears that way at least I don't know I mean at the same time as markets I guess try to understand at what the FED will do next what do you make of the internal selloff we're seeing in certain sectors like Industrials and Tech I was just looking at a name like Nvidia which is now down about 177% from its recent High yeah well I I've been thinking that uh it's it's time for a rest here at least a pause in the market uh we've had an extraordinary move to the upside since October 27th of last year it was almost a vertical ascent and the leadership clearly was technology but it did start to broaden out I think now the market has been weighed down by uh the realization that the FED may actually not ease at all this year remember at the beginning of the year we all remember that the markets were thinking six to seven rate Cuts I was thinking two to three now I think there'll be no rate cuts at all though I I guess it's possible there might be two in November and December things can change on a dime in this crazy world we live in now uh but all in all I think that some of the winners are just we're going to see some profit taking uh and I think there's going to be a more defensive posture maybe some people are still going to go into energy as a shock absorber against more shocks out of the Middle East but I think the market uh may just uh tread water here for a while we could have a 5 to 10 per correction I I'm not quite sure it'll be as bad as 10% but uh you know we're getting close to a 5% correction we're through the 50-day moving average if we get down to the 200 day moving average that would in fact be a 10% correction and is that on this idea that treasury yields will continue to move higher maybe even break above 5% that psychological level for the tenure well I think at this point the markets have pretty well discounted that that there won't be six to seven rate Cuts maybe there'll be one maybe two but so to the extent that the markets still have to give up on what I think is uh EX exaggerated expectations for more rate Cuts anytime soon we could see the the tenure at 5% and whether just seeing that number uh Spooks the market uh low lower uh we may very well find out but I don't really think we're going to go above 5% on the on the 10 year I think what what keeps me optimistic is I think there's way too much pessimism about the inflation numbers of the first three months of this year the CPI numbers everybody interpreted as hotter than expected uh but you know if you take out shelter I always like to take out what it doesn't support my story if you take out Shel if you take out if you take out shelter um the core and headline CPI inflation rates are around two and a half percent so that's pretty close to what the FED wants and we know that shelter inflation is coming down I know people have to live somewhere yeah you know it's funny I I when you take out all the things I have to spend money on inflation is pretty low you know yeah exactly it's always the stuff that hurts me it's the shelter it's the taxes it's the gas the whole thing of food U got to eat man Ed yard Denny thanks appreciate it good to see you