저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
Siegel은 올해 들어 지수가 2% 하락 없이 꾸준히 오른 것이 건강하지 않으며 소폭 조정은 오히려 바람직하다고 봄. 5% 이상 조정은 없을 것으로 예상. 다음 주 PCE 디플레이터가 2.7%로 3년 최저치를 기록할 것으로 전망하며, CPI도 5~6월부터 하락할 것으로 봄. 주택비·보험비 둔화가 CPI 하락 요인이라 설명. 연내 금리인하가 시장 예상(당초 4~5회 → 현재 1회)보다 많은 2~3회에 이를 수 있다고 봄. 이를 근거로 올여름에도 주가 상승이 이어질 것이라 주장.
다듬은 글
Let us analyze the path ahead. Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the Wharton School, is with us. Professor, do you consider this justified in light of the interest rate situation, geopolitics, and increasing headwinds? Well, Sara, we know that since last October we've had an incredibly steady increase, almost record-breaking, without even a 2% drop.
And you know, that 's actually not healthy either, because then momentum traders jump into the market . I think a small pullback—and by the way, I don't even believe we'll reach 5%, which is the minimum definition for a pullback—but a slight weakening is certainly not unhealthy for the market. I believe we will see a good PCE deflator value next week.
Yes, which I believe will be at 2.7% , the lowest level in 3 years. Incidentally, that's only three tenths away from the year-end target that the Fed set in March at 2.4% for this deflator . So I think, yes, we had three disappointments with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). I believe the PCE will turn out well and our CPI values will start to decline from May and June onwards .
Looking at the futures, we've basically settled on an interest rate cut by December. I actually think we could get more if we see these good deflator and inflation figures. Therefore, I think I will continue to see price gains for the market this summer . I know the PCE is the so-called preferred inflation measure of the Fed, but the CPI has really captured the attention of investors and the Fed .
You heard me go through all the reactions of these Fed members . They changed their tone after the CPI report in March . So how do they intend to explain – if you believe they are encouraged by a better PCE, which they should be – how do they explain this gap? And how do they convince investors, the American public, and themselves that they are doing the right thing by basing their decisions on the PCE?
Correct. Well, first of all, the CPI and the producer price index are released a few weeks before the PCE. These are therefore the most revealing data that economists and the Fed have for predicting the PCE. I also consider the CPI to be far more important. But I see good trends when looking to the future of the CPI.
For example, we discussed how housing costs and insurance account for more than 50% of the core CPI increase over the last 12 months, and looking ahead, both look much more favorable, particularly housing costs, which account for 41% of the core CPI . Looking ahead, these are therefore very promising and important factors that could push down the CPI , which then feeds into the PCE deflator .
So your view is that we will now see more interest rate cuts than the market expects, and that this is a good reason to buy stocks? Yes, I mean, I think it's fair to say that the market was far too optimistic at the beginning of the year with four or five interest rate cuts. Now it has shrunk down to one .
And I actually believe that we might see two or three interest rate cuts by the end of the year. I do n't think the Fed knows. I don't think anyone really knows that. They only look at the data month by month. Incidentally, there's one important thing Chairman Powell said. He said there was disappointment at the CPI.
However, he said that we have a dual mandate. If the economy slows down, and you mentioned that some people are talking about a slowdown in March or at the end of April. That's another reason for us to lower interest rates, unless inflation is, say, out of control. You really need to look at both, and I found these words very encouraging with regard to the Fed's future actions.
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