저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인의 과거 반감기 이후 1~18개월 가격 상승 패턴(2·3차 평균)을 근거로 2025년 10월까지 50만 달러 도달 가능성을 제시. 다만 수익률 체감(diminishing returns)을 고려해 영상 진행자는 약 2배(약 13만 달러) 정도를 더 현실적 시나리오로 봄. 현물 ETF 등으로 비트코인의 제도권 편입이 가속되고 달러 가치 하락 우려 속에서 금을 대체할 수 있다는 논리도 언급. 이 외에 현물 이더리움 ETF 철회, 체인링크 관련 뉴스, AIT 프로토콜 스테이킹 보상 등이 다뤄짐.
다듬은 글
you should really look at the pattern of Bitcoin after a having billionaire investor chamath poopaa explains why after a Bitcoin having price tends to go up 1 month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and watch today's whole video as chth explains why one Bitcoin could hit $500,000 per coin by 2025 so here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys and click subscribe to altcoin daily for one video per day keeping you informed about crypto and as chamath explains I'll break this down together with you so there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened and I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having 3 months 6 months 9 months 12 months and 18 months after a having and what you notice is that there are these moments initially where essentially when you go through a Bitcoin having people are sort of reassessing what's happening and they're trying to figure it out that's sort of what I would say is happens in the first month and roughly what also happens in the first three months but then within 6 months to a year and 18 months of these things there are these crazy price appreciation cycles that happen so that's what this page shows which is you know 18 months after the first having the Bitcoin price returned 45x after the second having it returned almost 28x and after this third having it returned almost an adex which is really incredible returns in such a short period of time you go to the next page so first off understand the Bitcoin price has increased materially following each having with the bulk of the returns realized between 12 months and 18 months after the having event meaning it's very normal to have minimal to no gains or Price appreciation the first one to three months like now but also second off while this chart is tracking the price return after 18 months not from cycle lows but the price compared to whatever the price at the date of the BTC having was notice diminishing returns and I wish chamath as he goes on would do a better job of pointing this out you go to the next page and so if you if you graph that this is what it starts to show which is what is this price performance after each of these having Cycles now why is that interesting well it's interesting because on top of this having which theoretically if history is a guide we should see some price appreciation obviously the other thing that's happened is we've commercialized Bitcoin and we talked about this sort of as my big prediction for 2024 which is these ETFs are really going to allow Bitcoin to cross the chasm and have its sort of Central Key moment right and and so if you apply the averages and again these are just averages they're by no means predictions okay so I just want to qualify that these this is not Financial advice it's not Financial advice these are just guesses we took these and we applied it to the price of Bitcoin and if you go to the next page you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few Cycles so because the first cycle was so extreme and you start to oh so you're just doing cycle two and three here to be clear just the averages of cycle two and three what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation and when I talked to Wes about this how he explained it which I which makes a lot of sense to me is there are a lot of countries that will never look at Bitcoin credibly even if they support it the US may be one of those but there's an increasing body of countries that will become dual currency and they will look at their local currency and then they will look at Bitcoin and they will say both of these two things are needed one when you're transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services and two when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value you'll use something like BTC and I think that's a very powerful concept and if you look at what this price chart could indicate is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets and I think if you marry that with this worry that some folks have about dollar debasement you start to see some really interesting opportuni so there is altcoin news I need to share with you watch today's whole video but chim's point is that Bitcoin could reach more than $500,000 per coin by October 2025 assuming it follows the same price pattern as Cycles 2 and three really a couple hundred, per coin minimum with $1.14 million per coin maximum by October of next year but this is where I have a problem because as I said a more realistic way to assess this information is not by taking the averages because clearly we're seeing diminishing returns as any asset grows bigger it takes more money to move it's harder to move and understanding these diminishing returns I think maybe a three to 4X may just be more realistic but even if we were trying to play it safe and maybe just say 2x two times the price at the date of the last BTC having which was several weeks ago on April 20th and the closing price for Bitcoin on April 20th was about $65,000 per coin so just a 2X from that would be $130,000 per coin by October 2025 chamath using averages is going half a million per coin diminishing returns seems like the safer more realistic play to me again this is an ongoing story so click subscribe for one video per day keeping you informed and as we begin to see cracks in the traditional system the New York Stock Exchange Burkshire hathway glitched showing that it went bankrupt today actually it was the New York Stock Exchange that glitched or the data they were trying to bring on the platform chain link could solve today's New York Stock Exchange glitch as Burkshire pathway appears down 99% and this is not the first time we're seeing the traditional system cracking for instance on March 18th the NASDAQ faced A 3-hour disruption in pre-market trading due to connectivity issues with its matching engine and the way a protocol like chain link could solve this is why pull data from one centralized Oracle or even a few centralized Oracle when chain link offers a decentralized Oracle Network solution we also have news for ethereum Arc invest Ops out of their spot ethereum ETF which was shocking to me as the SEC just Mass approved the listings of all spot ethereum ETFs why would Kathy Wood withdraw hers now well in a direct quote at this time Arc will not be moving forward with an ethereum ETF the spokesperson stated we will continue evaluating efficient ways to provide our investors with exposure to this innovative technology in a way that unlocks its full benefits so sort of a non-answer but the theory is that because the SEC doesn't like staking and they were only allowing spot ethereum ETFs if you didn't include the staking in it Kathy Wood is waiting to unlock the full benefits and in an update on my crypto journey I have been staking my AIT protocol and I just received my bit tensor TOA rewards specifically one .45 tow for staking AIT and with the price of one bit tensor currently valued at around $377 per tow My Rewards add up to over $500 in bit tensor token and the reason this is a thing is because AIT protocol is AI data infrastructure with AIT being the first web 3 bit tensor subnet so AIT is earning bit tensor and then they're passing that on to their stakers and the reason to me one of the reasons that this is so interesting besides just earning coin bit tensor is sort of the Blue Chip AI coin of the cycle but for me the theory is this sort of limits sell pressure of AIT because why would I sell uh this AIT that's making me bit tensor that's making me eth rewards when if I needed to to mitigate risk I would just sell the rewards and keep staking and keep earning also join us for Bitcoin Nashville July 25th through 27th use code altcoin daily for 10% off your ticket this is going to be such an epic conference come out hang out link down below see you there
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