저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
하루 전 장 마감 직전 브로드컴(AVGO) 행사가 300달러 콜옵션에 약 1억3400만달러 규모 대량 거래가 포착됐다고 주장. 6월물을 청산하고 7월물로 롤오버한 신규 매수로 해석하며, 옵션 포지션 기준 상승(롱) 베팅으로 분석. 다만 손익분기가 353달러 이상이고 시간가치 감소 위험이 크다고 언급. 영상은 유료 회원 가입을 유도하는 홍보 성격이 강함.
다듬은 글
In the last hour before the market closed, we detected an unusual trade worth $134 million in Broadcom stock, ticker symbol AVGO. And so, in this video, we'll analyze this unusual option activity to find out if this wealthy investor is bullish and buying, expecting the stock to move higher, or bearish and selling, expecting the stock to drop lower.
Because as we all know, the rich have more access to exclusive research and information, sometimes even leaked insider information, giving them an edge to make better, smarter financial decisions. This is how smart money always seems to be one step ahead well before the rest of the market catches on.
No wonder the rich get richer. And so, to level the playing field, let's dive into the unusual option activity so that our subscribers and members can profit from this deep knowledge, too. As we can see here on the options time and sales tape, on April 7th, in the last hour before the market closed at 3:30 p.m.
at the 48-second mark, these June 18th options at the 300 strike calls and the July 17th options at the 300 strike calls were being traded. We can see here there 12,500 contracts two times for the July 17th options, and there are 22,500 contracts for the June 18th options. Now, at first glance, this looks like a calendar spread because we have different dates but same strikes.
However, when we dive deeper into the option chain, we can see here for the June 18th options that at the 300 strike calls, we only have 5,552 open contracts, which is much less than the 22,500 contracts being traded. So, what's going on here? Well, based on our analysis, this investor was closing out these 300 strike calls and rolling into the July 17th options.
And so, you can see here that we have over 25,000 contracts, and so, we know that these are new opening trades. And so, this was not a calendar call spread. Instead, this investor was closing out these 300 strike calls that expired June 18th and rolling into these July 17th options at the 300 strike calls.
And so, we can calculate the cost of this trade by multiplying the quantity of contracts traded by the price per contract. And so, we have 12,500 contracts two times, which equals 25,000 contracts. And so, we multiply this by the price per contract of about 53.84. Keep in mind that this price shows option prices, and so, we need to multiply by 100 since each option controls 100 shares of stock, or we simply move the decimal two places to the right.
That means each of these call options cost about $5,384. And so, we multiply this out, and we get a total trade cost of approximately $134 million. But keep in mind, just because a trade is large does not necessarily mean it has a high chance of profit. In fact, this trade has a lower chance of profit and a higher level of risk in comparison to the trades that we share on our website.
And so, if you want to gain access to the better trade ideas with a higher chance of profit and a lower risk, then make sure to go to our website. We'll put a link at the top here. Keep in mind that our members also get earlier access to trades like this before anyone else, even before we share them on YouTube.
So, if you're tired of being late and want more time to act on these opportunities, then just head over to our website where you can see exactly which stocks wealthy investors are trading on Wall Street and when they're doing it so that you can have the same opportunities as the rich. Because if the rich get richer, why shouldn't you?
Now, with that said, even though this trade is higher risk, we still took it, but we used position sizing to manage our risk. As you can see here on the option chain for these July 17th options, our position is here marked as POS with the green color indicating a buy position. Because based on our analysis of other data sets and variables, this investor was buying these 300 strike calls for about 53.84 each, as we saw earlier on the options time and sales tape.
And so, when we analyze this trade, we can see here on the risk profile graph where the profit or loss shows up here, and the x-axis represents the share price of the stock, which is currently trading over here, and the y-axis represents the amount of profit or loss. Note the zero break-even line over here.
And so, when the purple line, which represents the current date, and the blue line, which represents the options expiration date, are trading below the zero break-even line, as the share price goes down, this trade becomes more negative, more loss. And as the share price goes up, this trade becomes more positive, more profitable.
In other words, this trade is going long bullish on Broadcom stock. We can confirm that on the options Greeks. This trade has a positive delta, which means it's positioned long and bullish. If it was a short bearish trade, we would see a negative delta instead. But keep in mind the risk with this trade.
It has a negative theta, which means it loses value over time due to time decay. And that is why you can see here the purple line drops down lower to the blue line as we approach the options expiration date. And because of this time decay, the break-even on this trade moves higher as time goes on. And so, you can see here even though the call options we bought have a strike price of $300, the stock needs to move above $353 per share for this trade to be profitable at expiration.
And because of this added risk, along with other factors, we only took a small position in this trade. We do not invest a lot of capital into these higher risk trades. Instead, we focus most of our capital on lower risk, higher probability of profit trades, the kind of trades we share on our website.
If you're interested in those, we'll put a link to our website over here where you can also learn more strategies to increase your profits. Let us know in the comments, do you think Broadcom stock will move higher or drop lower? As always, please like, subscribe, and until next time, let's keep tracking the trades of the rich so everyday investors can profit, too. Take care and have a wonderful day.
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