저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 허벌라이프 공매도 재조명 및 자동 옵션 데이터 분석 영상. 2024/8/7 특정 투자자가 2025년 2월 21일 만기 10 행사가 풋옵션 5,000계약을 계약당 230달러에 매수한 것으로 보고, 약 110만 달러 규모의 하락 베팅으로 해석. 손익분기점은 만기 시 약 76.9달러이며 시간가치 감소 위험을 강조. 영상 말미에 유료 정보 채널 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
is the famous investor Bill Amman shorting Herbal Life again because on the last trading day we found a wealthy investor shorting Herbal Life stock and so in this video we will show this trade by analyzing real data as we always do to follow the trades of the rich now if you're not familiar with Bill amman's short bet against Herbal Life there's actually a documentary about this called betting on zero even though Herbal Life stock did not drop to zero there are still ways to make money if the stock drops so let's take a look at how this can be done from recent data as we can see here on the options time and sales tape August 7th at 11:48 8 a.m.
these February 21st options at the 10 strike puts 5,000 contracts being traded the price that they were being bought 230 and so we can calculate the cost of this trade 230 we need to multiply by 100 since each option represents 100 shares of stock so each of these contracts cost $230 and since there was a total of 5,000 contracts this trade cost $1.1 million so much less than Bill amman's original Short trade against Herbal Life which was a billion dollar so let's take a look at the trade in detail we can see here that we are also in the same position at the 10 strike puts POS here stands for position green means buy so we are also buying these February 21st options now even though we are in this position we are not putting a lot of capital in this trade we use position sizing to manage our risk most of our capital is placed on trades with higher probability of profit if you are interested in those stock picks then make sure to go to our website we'll put a link at the top here where we share the higher probability of profit trades because not all trades will be profitable even this one might be a loss but as long as we diversify with higher quality stock picks based on this type of data analysis then we can become more profitable in the long term to beat the market consistently now when we Analyze This trade at the 10 strike put where it was being bought for 230 each we can see that this is clearly a short bearish position because you can see here on the graph x axis here is the share price of Herbal Life y AIS is the profit loss here zero anything below the zero is a loss and anything above is a profit so we can see the purple line will start to become positive which is a profit if the share price Goes Down And if it goes up you can see it becomes a negative loss if the share price goes up so this is a short bearish position and you can see that it immediately starts to become profitable right away so we do not necessarily have to wait until it goes to zero but keep in mind you can see that the break even on on this trade at expiration which is represented by the Blue Line actually shifts down lower okay this is the break even here where the lines meet the zero on the profit loss so the break even shifts down meaning as time passes herbal lifestock actually has to go down even more for these put options to be profitable and by expiration herbal life has to be trading right about here at $769 for these put options to be profitable by February 21st when these options expire because there is a Time Decay as you can see here a Theta here which is a negative okay so these options will lose value as time goes on so keep that in mind if you are trading options be aware of the time Decay risk but you'll notice that with this trade we do not have to go to zero as long as we are trading below $769 here these put options will become profitable so let us know in the comments below what you think think about this trade do you think Bill Atman is shorting Herbal Life are you shorting Herbal Life but keep in mind this is a higher risk trade in comparison to the trades that we shared on our website where they are lower risk and higher probability of profit so we'll put a link to our website at the top here go to our website if you want to learn more about how to short stocks using option strategies to red reduced risk while increasing profits as usual please smash the like button subscribe if you haven't take care and have a wonderful day
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