저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 금은 지금 매수하고 계속 매수해야 한다는 강세 입장이며, 신흥국 증시 회복도 낙관적으로 본다. 경기·시장 흐름: 헤드라인은 악화되지만 시장은 '벽을 넘는 과정'으로 보고 3월 이후 상승을 지속해 왔다. 미국이 회복을 주도하고 신흥국 회복도 인상적이라는 판단이다. 신흥시장 자금 동인: 연준 금리 인하로 신흥국 국채·회사채 금리가 내려가고, 세계은행·IMF 등의 자금 투입과 각국의 재정 지출 확대가 시장으로 유입되고 있다고 진단한다. 금: 금리가 제로 근처일 때 이자 없는 금의 기회비용이 낮아 매력적이며, 불확실성이 커질수록 상승한다고 주장한다. 코로나로 광산 생산이 줄어 공급 측면에서도 가격 상승 압력이 있다고 본다. 최근 1년 대비 S&P500과 비슷하게 올랐다고 설명한다. 은도 금을 따라갈 것으로 본다. 주식 vs 금: 인플레이션 조정 능력 때문에 주식으로 자본을 지키려는 수요와 금을 동시에 보유하는 헤지 전략이 나타난다고 설명한다. 미중 갈등: 중국은 펀드에서 핵심 비중이며, 미중 마찰을 반영해 중국 기업의 비미국권 활동(알리바바 금융의 남아공 보다폰 제휴 등)을 별도로 본다. 프론티어·신흥국 방역: 남아공(더반 한 달 봉쇄)과 케냐 등 일부 국가는 봉쇄가 엄격했고 케냐 투자도 잘 방역하고 있다고 보아 크게 걱정하지 않는다. 다만 국가별 편차가 크다고 인정한다. 리스크: 미국 실질금리와 기대인플레이션 격차(발언자 질문 측 지적) 등 금 강세와 엇갈리는 지표가 있다는 점이 언급되었으나 Mobius는 이를 명확히 반박하지 않았다. 신흥국 방역 격차, 재정적자 확대, 미중 갈등이 주요 변수다. 출연자 전망: 금은 지금 매수 후 지속 매수, 은도 긍정적, 신흥국 회복 낙관.
다듬은 글
i have to wonder the headlines keep getting worse and worse and the markets keep ignoring it why and are you ignoring it well you know it's very typical i i always talk about the wall of worry that the markets have to overcome and we've seen that since march and we've seen this market keep on going up and up and you pick up the newspaper you turn on tv it's more about deaths from covet 19.
so it's very typical that this kind of thing happens of course the news has to tell you what is going to harm you so it tends to be more negative but the people really are looking to a v-shaped recovery and i think you're seeing that around the world the recovery in emerging markets has been incredible and of course the us has led the whole whole bunch and has done very very well uh mar movius what's actually moving emerging markets more is it kova 19 the number of deaths uninfected or is it the fed and and yields in the u.s i think it's a combination of a few things first of course the fed you know the the fact that the interest rates have gone down that means these emerging markets rates for their sovereign debt and their corporate debt can also move down that's one thing the second thing is the amount of money that the world bank the imf and all these other organizations are putting into these markets to enable them to pay back their debts and do some infrastructure spending so that's another thing and of course within the countries themselves they've been increasing spending taking a lot of their budget of course that means that budget deficit is going to be greater but that's also been pouring into the markets so i think it's a combination of these things that have led to an increase and the interesting thing is that gold has done just as well as the equity markets so i noticed that although gold lagged since since the beginning in march this year to now gold has lagged the s p 500 but if you look at the five year numbers it's exactly the same both have gone up about the same from that about 75 percent from the low uh in in in five years so we're in a very interesting situation where people are looking at stocks to preserve their capital because stocks will adjust to inflation and also gold so they're sort of hedging their bets well i'm glad you brought that up because you know when i look at real yields particularly in the us and then i look at gold that to me doesn't really say v shape and it seems like you know in terms of inflation expectations we're still like 100 basis points off even where we were like a few years ago so i how do you reconcile that well i think one thing you have to remember that when interest rates are high people will tell you oh you're holding gold gold does not pay any interest but when interest rates are zero or near zero then gold is an attractive medium to have because you don't have to worry about not getting interest on your gold and you see the gold price will rise as uncertainty in the markets are arriving by the way one of the other interesting things about gold and i haven't looked at the numbers recently is what the supply coming out of the mines is going to be with this covid i assume that mine output should be declining for gold and that of course puts additional pressure upwards on the price um mark when you look at you know the us china the latest u.s china spats does that diminish significantly your appetite for chinese assets i mean should we assume that we're going to see many more fights between china and us china and uk china and europe and and other countries or regions well you know we've factored that in to our calculations in china is of course very important in our funds it's the along with brazil china and india are are very big for us so uh we we look at china uh chinese companies in a separate light in other words we look at what their global non-us activity is so for example i know you've seen it that alibaba financial services has now teamed up with vodacom in south africa to provide financial software and apps so this is the kind of thing that's happening in other words these chinese companies are moving globally to places where they're not going to be affected by the situation in the u.s so that's where we have to look we'll get to that in two seconds more specifically what you're looking at but just before we get there gold are you buying it at these levels oh yes i would be buying now and continue to buy because gold is uh what about a run i think it's doing well what about silver uh silver also because silver of course will follow gold but gold is of course the most important um when you look uh mark i remember you were talking quite a lot about the frontier markets and i i don't know whether you know covid changes your appetite for frontier markets because in terms of health systems they're even you know more they may be difficult to cure people than in in emerging markets uh yeah that's true for some of these markets but it's interesting to see how in many of these frontier and emerging markets the government's lockdown has even been more severe than what you've seen in some of the developed markets i was in south africa locked down for a month in durban i couldn't even go out in the streets so they were very very strict that was two months ago and kenya would be another example we have an investment in kenya and they've done a pretty good job in you know trying to stop the spread so i'm not too worried of course there are some markets that just don't have the money and the capability uh to do any effective lockdown but it's a it's a spotty scenario some are very good some are not so good
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