저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 주식시장 호황을 거품으로 보며 향후 큰 위기와 금리 상승, 달러 약세, 유가·물가 급등, 비트코인 폭락을 예측한다. 주식시장: 2008년보다 훨씬 큰 위기가 다가오며 투자자들은 이를 인지하지 못하고 있다. 다우 최고치에 집착하는 것은 무의미하다. 금리 상승이 거품 정당화 근거(저금리)를 무너뜨릴 것이다. 채권·금리: 국채 금리가 급등하고 있고 중국이 미국 국채 매입을 중단할 수 있다. 부채가 역대 최대라 금리 상승에 극도로 취약하다. 연준이 대차대조표를 줄이는 것은 어렵고, 결국 QE4로 확대할 것이라고 본다. 세금·경기: 감세 효과는 유가·식품·보험 등 생활비 상승으로 상쇄되며, 기업 이익도 비용 증가로 소멸될 것이다. 경기는 사람들이 생각하는 것보다 훨씬 약하다. 달러·원자재: 달러는 장기 약세장에 막 진입했고 위안화 대비 사상 최저치를 경신할 것이다. 유가는 올해 80~100달러, 장기적으로 150~200달러까지 갈 수 있다. 이는 수입물가 전반의 인플레이션으로 이어진다. 비트코인·크립토: 비트코인은 2만~3만 달러로 갈 가능성도 완전히 배제하지 않지만, 결국 0에 가까워질 것이며 투자자 손실은 막대할 것이다. 코닥코인 사례처럼 블록체인 명칭 붙은 주식도 거품이다. 출연자 전망: 시프는 주식·채권·부동산 시장 모두 붕괴 위험이 크다고 경고했다.
다듬은 글
the stock market staging its best start to a new year in decades let's bring in Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital all right Peter what do you make of the first couple of weeks of the new year in the stock market we've only had one down day in US stocks so far this year yeah investors are oblivious you know they're really whistling past the mother of all graveyards you mentioned this is the best start since 2006 and of course people who were buying stocks in 2006 had no idea of the magnitude of the financial crisis that would hit the market in 2008 well the same people are even more clueless today because the crisis that we're heading for is going to be much much bigger much worse than the one in 2008 so stock market you know buyers are oblivious look at what's happening in the bond market look at what's happening to the dollar look at what's happening to oil prices the gold prices these are the signs that people should be paying attention to but they're not they're too fixated on these meaningless highs in the Dow Jones well yeah bond yields surged this week and they have been for quite some time people are worried about that what do you make of this report that perhaps China will halt the purchases of US Treasuries well I think it's about time and I think it's not just halting to purchase remember we count on the Chinese to roll over the debt as it matures and so if they don't buy anymore that means they're gonna let their Treasury bond holdings mature where are we gonna get the money to repay the Chinese we don't have that money we have to get it from the Federal Reserve but according to the Fed they're not buying Treasuries either but and if the Chinese stop buying why would anybody else buy so you said people are worried about rising interest rates no they're not if they were worried they'd be selling stocks rates are going way up and people are oblivious to what that means because we have more debt than ever before in this country you know we we had a crisis in 2008 because we had too much debt now we have much more so the economy is in much worse shape it is very vulnerable to a back up and interest rates the whole justification for the stock market bubble is based on the fact that rates are low but what if they're not low anymore and of course if interest rates go up the government can't afford to pay interest on the national debt which is exploding Corporation can't afford to pay interest on their debt individuals can't afford to pay interest the states can't afford to pay interest I mean nobody can afford interest rates if they go up but it's hard to imagine a crash in the stock market any time soon we've just had tax cuts you know going into corporate America we have companies rady raising guidance companies giving out $1,000 bonuses to their employees so how do you grapple with a potential crash in the stock market with these forces in the background well Bush cut taxes that he cut taxes on corporations you slash the tax on corporate dividends that didn't stop the market from going down and you know these tax cuts add to the deficit but the problem for individuals is even though they're gonna get a tax cut they're gonna spend that money on gas they're gonna spend it on food they're gonna spend it on insurance so they're not gonna have any money left over to buy anything extra they're just gonna pay more for life's necessities meanwhile a lot of corporations aren't gonna bet it from these tax cuts because they're not going to have any profits their costs are gonna go up so much that their profits are gonna be eradicated and it doesn't matter if you have a lower income tax if you have no income that's subject to tax so I think people are overestimating the benefit of the economy to the tax cuts and they are ignoring the drag on the economy of rising interest rates which also means rising why would they have some youcome corporations because they start losing money their their interest costs go up on their debt their raw material costs go up their wages and costs have gone up so companies are gonna see a lot of their profits go away and their sales are gonna go down when their customers are spending all their money on higher mortgage payments because they're adjustable rate mortgage reset or they're spending it on on gasoline or insurance you know sales are gonna be weak so the economy is a lot weaker than people think and and they're being blindsided by all this hype you know Donald Trump was right when he was a candidate it's a big fat ugly bubble and now it's a lot bigger fatter and uglier than it was back then well some analysts are saying that come July that's when the Federal Reserve will actually begin to shrink its balance sheet does a pullback in the stock market potentially coincide with an event like that well if the Fed actually follows through with that threat and I would consider it a threat because if the Fed actually does that that will simply you know exacerbate that the demise of the stock market and the bond market and the economy but it's my feeling that the Fed is going to back away from that but it's still you know not going to you know be a get-out-of-jail-free card I mean I think the Fed is gonna actually expand its balance sheet I think they're gonna surprise the markets with QE 4 because I think interest rates are gonna be rising so much that the Fed is going to panic the Fed is going to try to halt the increase in interest rates because it knows it will usher in another financial crisis and so the Fed is going to become the buyer of only resort it's gonna be buying up all the bonds that the Chinese don't want or that anybody else no longer wants and so they can't shrink the balance sheet they're gonna have to expand it they're gonna have to expand it you know bigger than ever what about the demise of the dollar so far this year what's behind that move and are people not paying enough attention to that they're not paying enough attention you know when last year began right 2016 or 2017 rather everybody was bullish on the dollar I mean except for me but all the mainstream analysts oh the dollar has no place to go but up and it had its biggest decline in 14 years in fact it was the first time the dollar was down in five years the dollar had its worst year against the Chinese yuan in nine years it's gonna accelerate I think the US dollar is gonna hit an all-time record low against the yuan this year remember a lot of hedge funds were shorting yuan and I was warning that those guys were gonna get burned on those trades and they are if they're still in them there's a lot more pain ahead but this weak dollar is just getting started we have just begun a major long term bear market in the dollar that is gonna see the dollar hit all-time record lows across the board that's gonna send commodity prices higher that's gonna send oil you know oils back above 60s above 64 dollars a barrel today we're headed to eighty to a hundred this year and I think by the time the dollar bear market is over we're gonna be a hundred and fifty two hundred dollars a barrel maybe higher in the price of oil you know that's not gonna you know be $100 a barrel yes you know not not this year probably not next year but before this dollar bear market ends that's what Americans are gonna be forced to pay if they want to actually buy any oil but it's also going to be food prices that are going to go up clothing prices everything that we import is going to get more expensive this is the beginning of a surge in inflation you know people thought that oh you know we printed all this money but look you know we didn't get in the inflation the money printing was the inflation the result is gonna be a big increase in consumer prices it's just that there was a big lag between the creation of all the inflation and all the inflation showing up in consumer goods because in the interim it may - it made a short-term stop in financial assets so before the inflation is going to show up at the grocery store right or at the gas pump it showed up in the stock market in the bond market in the real estate market but ultimately it's going to go into consumer prices prices are going through the roof or and the Fed can't do anything about it Peter Bitcoin prices have come down from their highs in December we're now at about $14,000 for Bitcoin is the Bitcoin hype fading and where do we end the year at well I don't know if it's fading or not I mean there's a good chance that the market has topped out but then again it may not I mean this bubble has gotten a lot bigger than I thought it would have gotten and does that mean that it can't get bigger still it could I mean could Bitcoin get back above 20,000 and go to 25,000 or 30,000 yeah I'm not going to say it's impossible but I wouldn't encourage people to bet on it because I do believe that no matter how high Bitcoin goes it's ultimately going near zero whether it goes all the way to zero or just gets close enough it's not going to matter the losses are gonna be enormous for people who are buying Bitcoin now even if they temporarily have some paper profits the market is going to implode and it goes with all these other crypto currencies - I mean it's it's not just Bitcoin I mean you've got bubbles going on in all these cryptos and now you have these stocks look at Eastman Kodak right I mean I forgot they even still out of stock but all of a sudden they they say they're a blockchain company they come out with Kodak coin and it stocks up 400% I mean so people are just buying anything that has the word blockchain in it or crypto in it just like they were jumping all over any stock to put a dot-com at the end of their name in the 1990 exuberance but maybe more irrational than it was before irrational exuberance that's a term we've heard before all right Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital thanks for him for joining us as always my pleasure
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