저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜섬은 금융 버블을 인간 심리(과도한 확신, 소외 공포, '이번엔 다르다' 증후군)의 산물로 보며, 일본 1980년대 버블과 2000년·2008년 붕괴를 예로 든다. 현재 금융시장은 기술주·암호화폐·SPAC 확산 등으로 1920년대·주택버블과 유사한 '슈퍼버블'이라고 경고한다. 저금리와 양적완화가 투기를 조장한다고 비판하며, 불평등 심화와 장기 기후·지속가능성 투자 문제도 함께 지적한다. 구체적 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Grantham has seen it all across Decades of watching markets rise and fall the British investor and co-founder of GMO has built a reputation for one thing recognizing Financial bubbles before they burst for Jeremy Grantham a financial bubble isn't just a moment of Market excess it's a story of human behavior overconfidence and the inevitable Reckoning when reality catches up to Fantasy he has spent his career trying to understand why bubbles form why they're so tempting and what happens when they collapse and over the years his warnings have been eerily correct in the late 1980s Japan was at the peak of what felt like an Unstoppable economic boom its stock market was soaring and Tokyo's real estate was so valuable that the land under the Imperial Palace was worth more than the entire State of California investors all over the world were captivated by what seemed to be a new economic Miracle but Jeremy Grantham wasn't buying it literally and figuratively he looked at the numbers and saw a market far removed from reality price to earnings ratios were astronomical and the high level of speculation did not align with the fundamentals Grantham predicted that the bubble would burst and by the early 1990s he was proven right the Nikki index lost over 60% of its value and Japan entered what would later be called its lost decade this wasn't luck Grantham had spent years studying the anatomy of bubbles learning how they form and what drives them to dizzying Heights before they come crashing down he has since predicted other major Financial collapses from the crash in 2000 to the 2008 Global financial crisis but his ability to see what others can't is rooted in the simple idea that human behavior doesn't change think about this for a moment why do bubbles happen Grantham would tell you it's not just about numbers on a screen or the actions of a few greedy investors it's about us our psychology our fear of missing out and our tendency to convince ourselves that we're smarter than the people who came before us Grantham calls this the this time is different syndrome every bubble comes with a story that justifies why the old rules no longer apply in the era it was the belief that the internet had fundamentally changed the economy during the housing boom of the 2000s it was the idea that real estate prices could only go up these narratives are seductive because they feed our optimism they make us believe we've discovered something new when in reality we're just repeating the same mistakes Grantham has often described Bubbles as a fever at first it's barely noticeable it's usually just a slight rise in speculative Behavior then it begins to spread investors start pouring money into assets with little regard for their true value soon the market becomes irrational with prices climbing higher and higher as people buy simply because they see others doing the same this is the hurting Instinct in action no one wants to be left behind everyone believes they can get out before the crash but when the fever finally breaks it's sudden and the consequences are always devastating just think about the 2008 financial crisis it didn't happen overnight Grantham had been warning about the unsustainable rise in home prices the explosion of subprime mortgages and the dangerous instruments tied to them he saw the signs just like he had in Japan decades earlier and he knew the market couldn't sustain itself but his warnings like that of many others were ignored when the bubble burst it triggered a global recession leaving Millions unemployed and wiping out trillions of dollars in wealth what makes grantham's perspective so valuable is his ability to cut through the noise and focus on what really matters he has always emphasized that no matter how exciting or Innovative an asset may seem its prices must be realistic this is why he has been so critical of the Federal Reserve and other central banks in his opinion their policies of low interest rates and quantitative easing have created a world where speculative behavior is not only encouraged but rewarded when money is cheap and easy to borrow investors take bigger risks and when those risks pay off it fuels a cycle of overconfidence that leads to even bigger bubbles Grantham has often compared today's Financial scene to a Super Bubble he says we are living through one of the most overvalued markets in history with parallels to the Roaring 20s the era and the housing boom he points to the fast rise in tech stocks the explosion of cryptocurrencies and the spread of spaxs as evidence that speculative excess is once again dominating the market and he's not alone other experts have echoed his concerns warning that the longer this bubble inflates the more painful the eventual burst will be but the thing about bubbles is they're incredibly hard to resist even when people know a market is overvalued the fear of missing out can be overwhelming Grantham has observed this time and again during the late stages of a bubble investors often convince themselves that they can time their exit perfectly they believe they'll be able to sell at the peak and avoid the losses that come with the crash but history has shown that very few actually succeed the collapse usually happens faster than anyone expects and it leaves seasoned investors scrambling for the exit it's easy to think of Bubbles as a purely Financial phenomenon but the truth is their impacts go far beyond the markets Grantham has often spoken about the societal consequences of bubbles particularly in the way they encourage inequality when asset prices rise the benefits disproportionately go to those who already own wealth like stocks real estate or other Investments meanwhile the economic Fallout of a bubble's collapse usually hits the most vulnerable the hardest job losses wage stagnation and reduced access to credit are just a few ways bubbles deep in economic divides Grantham warns that this inequality isn't just an economic problem it's a social and political one too and then there's also the environment in recent years Grantham has turned much of his attention to climate change and sustainability he argues that the financial system's focus on short-term gains often comes at the expense of long-term resilience he believes that the resources and Innovation needed to address climate change are being diverted into speculative Ventures and this leaves us unprepared for the challenges ahead for Grantham the lessons of financial bubbles are not just about avoiding economic pain they're about building a more sustainable and Equitable world so what can we learn from Jeremy Grantham how do we avoid falling into the same traps over and over again Grantham would say it starts with understanding history bubbles may look different on the surface but they all follow the same basic patterns by studying past crises we can recognize the warning signs and take steps to protect ourselves he also emphasizes the importance of discipline and skepticism when markets are soaring and everyone around you is celebrating it's very easy to get caught up in the excitement but that's exactly when you need to step back and ask the tough questions are these prices Justified is this growth sustainable and most importantly what happens if I'm wrong Grantham has spent years sounding the alarm about Bubbles and yet they keep happening why because human nature doesn't change we're wired to Chase rewards to follow the crowd and to believe that this time is different but if we can learn to recognize these Tendencies and resist their pull we might just be able to break the cycle as we navigate today's uncertain markets Jeremy grantham's voice is more important than ever he reminds us that what goes up must come down that optimism can be dangerous and that the best way to protect ourselves is to be realistic his warnings may not always be easy to hear but they are an important reminder that in the world of finance history always has a way of repeating itself
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