저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 저금리와 중앙은행 유동성으로 지연된 경기침체가 임박했다고 경고한다. 미국 국가부채 33조달러, 글로벌 부채 35조달러, 신용카드 잔액 1조달러 돌파를 근거로 제시하며, 1930년대급 대공황 가능성을 언급한다. 달러 기축통화 지위 약화, 인플레이션, 주식시장 버블, 고령화 리스크도 거론한다. 대응으로 금·은·농지 등 실물자산, 글로벌 분산투자, 부채 축소를 권한다. 다만 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Jim Rogers a renowned investor has issued a final warning predicting a massive economic storm ahead Jim warns that a global downturn is imminent especially in the US but what exactly is driving his concerns and how can you protect yourself from this impending doom for starters let's consider this it's been decades since the United States experienced a major recession however historically economic downturns tend to occur every 5 to 10 Years yet we've somehow managed to avoid this what do you think is delaying this one the answer is quite obvious cheap money contrary to what most might think this isn't a sign of economic strength it's just the government simply delaying the inevitable Jim Rogers believes this prolonged recovery is artificial staged by central banks flooding the economy with cheap money for years the central banks have kept interest rates at an all-time low which in turn has made borrowing easy and encouraged spending but the thing is all this comes at a cost and the warning signs are hard to ignore a perfect indicator is the yield curve which has inverted not once but twice in recent years this signals that trouble might just be around the corner meanwhile corporate debt is also spiraling out of control as companies have taken advantage of low interest rates to borrow heavily but as these rates continue to rise those debts become harder to manage even on a personal level household debts are through the roof with Us credit card balances surpassing $1 trillion for the first time ever many Americans are now borrowing to maintain their Lifestyles which which have become insanely expensive and this is a very bad position to be in if another recession hits but surprisingly enough Jim isn't just concerned about a typical downturn he envisages that when this depression hits it won't just be another 2008 Jim predicts that it would be something closer to the Great Depression of the 1930s where unemployment peaked at 25% and the stock market lost 90% of its value according to Rogers the underlying problem is debt right now most economies of the world are drowning in debt with global debt standing at an astonishing $35 trillion to put this into better perspective that's more than three times the global GDP governments corporations and households are all being crushed under the weight of this burden in the us alone the national debt has soared to $33 trillion that's about $100,000 for every man woman and child in the country and this doesn't even account for unfunded liabilities like Medicare and Social Security developing countries like SRI and Argentina are also struggling to pay back loans because they borrowed in US Dollars by implication what this means is that as the dollar strengthens paying back these debts becomes increasingly difficult for them the implications of this debt crisis are worse than you can ever imagine governments now have to choose between three bad options raising taxes cutting spending or printing more money all these options come with great downsides especially for ordinary citizens who already bear the brunt of it all another critical factor in Rogers prediction is the decline of the US Dollar's dominance for decades the US dollar has been the king of currencies it is the world's Reserve currency and this means that most global trade and Investments are done in dollars however Jim warns that this dominance is under threat and the consequences could be catastrophic for the US economy China for instance is aggressively pushing for its un to replace the dollar in global transactions the recent agreement between China and Brazil to trade directly in their currencies is just one example of this shift there's also the issue of trust whenever the US freezes the assets of countries like Russia it sends the message your money might not be safe in dollars this has led to many countries diversifying away from the dollar exploring other Alternatives like gold or even creating new Reserve currencies the brics Nations Brazil Russia India China and South Africa are actively discussing this move if affected this could deal a serious blow to the Dollar's dominance ultimately if the dollar loses its Reserve status the demand for dollars will plummet and this means a weaker dollar higher inflation and a lower standard of living for Americans it's a scary thought but it's one we can't ignore you see the thing with inflation is that it's like a hidden tax that eats away at your purchasing power without you even realizing it and over the past 2 years inflation has surged to levels we haven't seen since the 1980s Rogers has pointed to several factors driving this trend from government's printing money during the pandemic to supply chain disruptions and finally Rising energy costs fueled by the war in Ukraine Rogers warns that the central banks are playing a dangerous game by raising interest rates to combat inflation it's just like trying to put out a fire with gasoline it might work temporarily but it creates greater problems in the long run the stock market too is another source of concern Rogers believes we're in the middle of one of the biggest bubbles in history and the thing about bubbles is when they pop they don't deflate gently they burst for decades now we've seen some signs of overvaluation like Skyhigh price to earning ratios and the surge in speculative frenzy caused by platforms like Robin Hood and Reddit during the pandemic even cryptocurrencies once seen as revolutionary Investments have shown their volatility in 2021 we watched Bitcoin hit $68,000 but by 2022 Bitcoin had fallen below $20,000 another challenge Rogers pointed out is demography many developed countries need help with AAR large aging population and declining birth rates this creates a shrinking Workforce with fewer younger workers lesser productivity and lower tax revenue healthc care costs have also risen with pressure being mounted on social security systems Jim sees this as a ticking time bomb that is going to strain government budgets and slow down economic growth if Jim Rogers is right the next few years are going to be tough so what can you do to protect yourself from this looming crisis no need to panic because Rogers has offered three pieces of advice first invest in real assets like gold silver and farmland this is because these assets do not lose value the way cash and stocks can when the economy tanks take gold for example during the 2008 financial crisis gold prices skyrocketed by nearly 25% this makes it not just a shiny asset but a safety net as well and silver it's basically Gold's most affordable cousin and just as reliable Farmland is another fantastic option because no matter what's going on in the world people need food as population growth and climate change make farming harder farmlands become even more valuable this doesn't mean you should go out and buy Acres of Farmland tomorrow unless that's your thing you can just invest in agricultural funds or precious metals ETFs the goal is to put your money into something that won't evaporate if the financial markets crash secondly diversify your Investments globally this means not putting all your eggs in one basket or in this case one country if your Investments are tied to one country your taking a very big risk this is why Jim Rogers is all about global diversification Emerging Markets like Asia and Africa are growing fast Africa's GDP is projected to grow by over 4% annually in the coming years that's huge these regions have young populations booming Industries and less dependence on older struggling economies so what can you do look into International stocks ETFs or even property abroad another smart move will be to diversify your currency exposure the US dollar isn't as invincible as it once was and currencies like the Chinese un might be a safer bet in the long run the idea is pretty simple spread your risk across different economies so you're not wiped out if one of them goes under finally and the most important of all prioritize reducing your debt debt might seem manageable when times are good but during a recession it can become a massive problem think about it if you're struggling to make ends meet and interest rates are climbing that credit card isn't going to get easier to handle central banks have been raising interest rates to fight inflation which means borrowing money is getting more expensive those higher monthly payments can hit hard if you aren't prepared start by tackling highin debts like credit cards and personal loans if you can consolidate your debt at a lower rate to make it easier to pay off also avoid taking on new debts for things you don't need living within your means now can save you a lot of stress later being debt-free during a recession will give you the financial breathing room to focus on what really matters and even take advantage of opportunities when the omy bounces back Jim Rogers final warning might sound scary but it's also a wakeup call the key is to stay informed stay prepared and remember that every crisis creates opportunities if you found this video helpful don't forget to like subscribe and share it with someone who needs to hear it
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