저자: PeterLynch—영상진행자미상 · 외국인
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결론: 피터 린치의 투자 원칙 10가지를 소개하며, 이해할 수 없는 기업에는 투자하지 말고 장기적으로 기업 실적을 보고 주식을 보유하라는 교훈을 전달한다. 핵심 주장: 주가는 장기적으로 기업 이익과 100% 상관관계가 있다. 금리·유가·대통령 등 거시 변수는 예측이 불가능하다. 기업 이해: 이해하지 못하는 사업에는 투자하지 않는다. 주가가 떨어져도 사업을 이해하고 재무가 건전하면 매수 기회로 본다. 소형주·성장: 소기업이 고용을 창출한다. 1980년대 500대 기업은 300만 개 일자리를 없앴고 소기업은 1,800만 개를 만들었다. 성장주는 수년~수십 년 보유하면 큰 수익이 가능하다(월마트 사례 언급). 과열 경계: 연 50~100% 성장 기업은 경쟁·자본 조달 문제로 의심하라. 시장 과열(일본 닛케이 사례)은 경계 대상이다. 분산투자: 분산은 실수이며, 좋은 종목 10개를 찾으면 집중 보유한다. 인사이더 정보: 직업을 통해 얻은 정보(예: 은행원의 은행 정보)를 활용한다. 추천 검증: 누가 추천한 종목이든 직접 리서치 없이 매수하지 않는다. 리서치 기준: 1개 주식 리서치에 최소 10일, 매수 전 15~20일 숙고한다. 감정적 판단을 경계한다. 장기 전망: 기업 이익은 10~20년 후 더 커질 것이며, 1~2년 단기 시장 예측은 무의미하다. 채권 대비 주식 시장이 장기적으로 유리하다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
10 investing gems from Peter Lynch's one up on Wall Street apart from Benjamin Graham's the intelligent investor there is no better book to get started for beginners than Peter Lynch's one-up on Wall Street the easy going and simplistic stock picking style discussed in this book brought Lynch great success in his profession as a fund manager at the U.S mutual fund company fidelity the best part about this book is that it's low on number crunching but high on anecdotal stories moreover readers are given a clear picture on how to get off to a good start in the stock market one up on Wall Street offers insight into the mind of one of the greatest money managers of all times Lynch helps you discover that he is a normal guy like you and me who thinks rationally believes in doing his own independent research on companies asks plenty of questions and gets caught off guard by the market at times just like anyone else anyone thinking about buying individual stocks must read this book before they ever make their first stock purchase while there are numerous lessons that Lynch dispels through this book here are my personal top 10 that really stand out I have in fact benefited from incorporating each of these lessons in my personal investment philosophy I hope these also add to your investment Arsenal so let's start right here Peter Lynch's 10 investing gems understand is a hundred percent correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company right the stock is done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happened the price of oil whether who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court it's all the ozone layer has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do right and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on Earth they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Greenspan is the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates yes he'd be the first he can influence somebody can't predict him he cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now so how am I supposed to demonstrate how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 yes 1982 we had a 20 prime rate 14 unemployment 12 inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen also we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about it in the paper so it's crazy to think about these things there's also this idea never investing something you don't really know you I mean that's that was part of that's why you went out on the road so much if I don't understand it I don't want to the the key thing is when the stock goes from ten to six if you understand what they do and you know they're financially solvent you're fine if you don't understand it you can call the psychic hotline but if you don't understand it you're probably gonna do the wrong thing you know if you understand exactly what they're doing it's got ten to six you'll buy more if you're confused to start with you'll say Well there must be something wrong here and then you're out yeah a lot of times stocks are going to decline I mean some of my best stocks were from 18 to 8 then to sometimes to 40 and some are going from 18 to zero but at least I wasn't adding to it on the way to zero a lot of them so if it's going down you're not adding to it I mean sometimes you are if the finals are getting better or the same yeah put it through deterring one understand the nature of the companies you own and the specific reasons for holding the stock a lot of people buy stocks with the mentality this stock is really going up this reasoning of buying stocks has never worked in the long run you might buy a stock that is going up in price and you might make some money in the short run but in the long run this basis of buying stocks is going to suck you into a never-ending Whirlpool of losses a stock is just a share in a business so it's important to understand what is the kind of business that you are getting into and then you must have specific reasons to buy and hold the stock again reasons that have less to do with how the stock price is doing and more to do with how the business is doing the 500 largest companies in the 80s eliminated 3 million jobs eliminated 3 million and we added 18 million these 2.2 million businesses started 2.2 million businesses start in the 80s now some of them didn't make it right but if an average they have 10 employees today that's 22 million jobs what the only thing that creates wealth the only thing that creates taxes to pay for all these wonderful things is jobs there is something magic about jobs and jobs come from company Stars that's what I'm trying to say small companies create all the jobs so that's what I'm trying this is not voodoo economics this is the real thing you have to encourage people to take some risk to put their money out and go start a business it's a risky proposition two consider the size of a company if you expect it to profit from a specific product you might say I love Maggie in fact everyone loves Maggie so Nestle must be a very good stock let me ask you great but what if Maggie is just one percent of Nestle's total sales and the products that contribute the remaining 99 aren't that great does Nestle still sound like a great investment just on the basis of one great product that contributes just one percent of its sales now what do you say see companies selling products or services that everyone love or is talking about is worthy of considering as a potential investment but as an investor the greater task for you is to know how much of that great product or service means to the company if it does not contribute meaningfully to the company's sales and profits it can't be the core reason for buying that stock quadruple and six pick up eight-fold in nine years that's how you get a huge stock in a decade there's not a lot of these but they're very powerful the best part is you don't have to catch them just as they're taking off the beauty of growth companies is you have plenty of time they're going to grow for 5 10 20 30 years you don't have to be there the first year the second year you could have bought Walmart 10 years after they went public and made 30 times your money what makes a company grow earning so quickly either it is a rapidly growing industry or it's a rapidly growing company in a slow growth industry rapid Revenue growth and Rapid earnings growth are the Hallmarks of a fast grower we just can't buy any stock with hot earnings and hot sales you have to check the balance sheet make sure the company can keep growing huge run I mean the market was 4 000 just you know two and a half years ago yeah and it ran up to 8 300 in August and you know like any big rally sometimes it backs off and it's healthy in fact I mean I'd rather gone down a thousand points than gone to twelve thousand if you look at Japan Japan went from five thousand to fifteen thousand on their Dow it was fairly priced at fifteen thousand on earnings and everything else then it went to 40 000 and that caused seven years of inflated real estate people overspending and basically they've been in recession for five or six years because their Market went up too high the market was too high you're discounting earnings seven eight ten years out three be suspicious of companies with growth rates of 50 to 100 a year growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell goes a famous saying in the same way companies that are growing at rates of 50 to 100 annually must be looked at with suspicion one reason for this is that such growth cannot continue for long for reasons like higher competition that might want to take a pie of this growth opportunity the second reason is that if such a company still wants to push for higher growth for a few more years it might have to infuse more capital in the business this could either mean stretching the balance sheet by taking on debt or diluting Equity by issuing new shares both these are bad Omens for existing shareholders what is more one year of slowdown in growth can come as a shock to the stock market and might lead to a sharp fall in the stock price diversification is a big mistake I call it diversification you buy this thing that might balance this other thing and they both go down so I don't believe in diversification at all I would own one stock but what I do believe in is if I find 10 good stories they're all equally attractive I buy all 10.
and I wait to see them unfold it's like watching 10 poker games 10 games of stud poker you watch the cards turn over Story three gets better story six slips story seven stays the same but it goes up fifty percent you sell seven and buy two that's all I do so if they're equally attractive I buy all 10 then gradually some story says oh my God this is getting better and better and guess what the slot just went down so you keep watching 10 stories and magically because of that rule of stocks going up and down a lot then you load up you really you know take a big advantage 4.
distrust diversifications which usually turn out to be diversifications experience suggests that most diversifications Acquisitions of companies in the same area or a different one altogether are done to satisfy the egos of promoters and not for real business reasons and most of the diversifications end up as diversifications so watch out for companies that are blazing guns in this space 5.
people get incredibly valuable fundamental information from their jobs that may not reach the Professionals for months or even years not many small investors appreciate this but it is one of the best ways they can pick great stocks if I'm a banker I know what makes up a bank's balance sheet and I also know which banks are worth banking upon as Investments considering this I would be a full-lying biotechnology or I.T stocks especially when I don't understand the ABCs of these industries but just go by what my broker or friend advises me of course I might enhance my circle of competence and learn about these industries but my first hunting ground must be banking 6.
separate all stock tips from the Tipper even if the Tipper is very smart very rich in his or her last tip went up even if I love my fun manager for his Stellar track record in managing my money Towing all his stock ideas without doing my own research would be fraught with extreme risks the stock he is recommending on CNBC might form just 0.001 of his total portfolio I might be so enamored by his story on the stock that I may buy it in bulk and it forms around 10 percent of my small portfolio now when this stock crashes the fund manager would appear smart for taking a very small risk with it I might lose my shirt so the idea is to always do an independent research on a stock before you even think of buying it 7.
invest in simple companies that appear dull mundane out of favor and haven't caught the street such a company is rarely covered by stock analysts and bought by fund managers so there is a great chance that the stock could be available at a great bargain 8. companies that have no debt can't go bankrupt this is the most important lesson that you would remember or forget when it comes to identifying the right businesses for investment companies that borrow money to grow their businesses might appear good because they are growing but more often than not such companies get so much Intoxicated by the growth that they end up making a mess of their balance sheets and in the process destroying whatever shareholder wealth they created during growth years look at Realty and construction companies and you won't have to look anywhere else for such examples I made 10 or 15 times my money in Dunkin Donuts those are the kind of stocks I can understand if you don't understand it doesn't work this is the single biggest principle and it bothers me that people are very careful their money the public when they buy a refrigerator they get to consume reports they buy micro oven they do that they ask people what's the best kind of radar range or what kind of car to buy they do research on apartments when they go to when they go on a trip to Wyoming they get a mobile travel guide or California when they go to Europe they get the Michelin travel guide people who hear a tip on the bus on some stock and they'll put half their life savings in It Before Sunset and they wonder why they lose money in the stock market and when they lose money they blame it on the institutions and program training that is garbage they didn't do any research they bought a piece of junk they didn't look at the balance sheet and that's what you get for it and that's what we're being driven to and it's self-fulfilling the public does terrible investing and they say they don't have a chance it's because that's the way there's that's the way they're acting I'm trying to convince people there is a method there are reasons for stocks that go up uh Coca-Cola this is very magic it's a very magic number easy to remember Coca-Cola is earning 30 times per share what they did 32 years ago the stock has gone up 30 fold Bethlehem Steel is earning less than they did 30 years ago the stock is half its price of 30 years ago so not lottery tickets is a company behind every stock the company does well the stock does well it's not that complicated people get too carried away and first of all they try and predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market they try to predict the interest rates if anyone predict interest rates right three times in a row they'd be a billionaire concerning there's not that many billionaires on the planet they can't be that many people who can bring interest rates because there'd be lots of billionaires and no one can predict the economy I had a lot of people in this room were around in 1981 and 82 when we had a 20 prime rate with double digit inflation double digit digit unemployment I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it I didn't read I study also I remember anybody telling the worst recession since the depression but I'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the Dow Jones average year for now would be X that we're gonna have a full-scale recession our interest rate is going to be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so I've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics you've wasted 12 minutes and I I really believe that nine devote at least an hour a week to investment research adding up your dividends and figuring your gains and losses doesn't count I have been shouting this from the rooftop of sayful night Shack all this time but not many seem to hear so now let me tell you how much Peter Lynch believes in the power of independent investment research in the success of an investor Lynch suggests that you must invest at least as much time and effort in choosing a new stock as you would in choosing a new refrigerator say to yourself I think this company is going to earn something in the future if it's already discounting that if it's selling at a huge multiple you say it's already it has to work and then it's only going to stay even so you have to say yourself if I'm right how much am I going to make if I'm wrong how much I'm going to lose that's the risk reward ratio in stock shop we talk about if I'm right I hope I'm going to double trip my money if I'm wrong maybe I'll lose 30 40 that's a favor ratio we say if I'm right the Stock's not gonna go up it's already discounting terrific things if discounting terrific things are already in the stock I don't know okay these public companies out there here's the company I really like the fundamentals are terrific their earnings are doing well their competitors are doing poorly I think this company's doing terrific and all of a sudden the stock might have gone from 40 to 30 because of this decline that would say wow here's a chance to buy it so you're trying to say some companies might have been overpriced at 60.
all they did was go to 50 and say big deal so you're trying to find times you liked anyway right now you liked them and now they've had a haircut that's what you would do not it's like the one from overpriced The Fairly price sometimes fairly place at the start of this exercise and then had a very you know five for four sale 10 when in doubt tune in later now this is where the emotional part about investing comes into play I have spent 10 days researching a stock and thankfully on the 11th day I find that it's a great business and even available at a good discount to the intrinsic value so it seems like a perfect Buy now what in the world should stop me from buying this stock well here are some questions that must stop me from buying that stock call it XYZ instantly and my bias towards XYZ just because I've spent 10 days researching it am I getting overconfident with my analysis am I impressed by just the company's recent performance do I like the stock just because it has fallen in price do I like it just because my friend advised it to me in the first place if the answer to any of these questions makes me uncomfortable it's an indication that I must sleep on the stock idea instead of buying the stock then there have been numerous instances where I have waited weeks or even months before committing money to a stock idea I liked as Peter Lynch says the key organ for investing is the stomach not the brain the 15 to 20 days after I complete my analysis on a stock help me know whether my stomach is ready to digest the stock even when the Mind answers in the affirmative right six times out of ten but if I'm right I make a double or triple occasionally it offsets the times you lose 30 to 40 percent in fact you could be right a third of the time as long as you have a lot of good results so when you're short you can only make ninety percent when you're long you make tenfold or five-fold so I think long is the way to be corporate products have grown about seven or eight percent a year that means they double but including dividends but every 10 years quadruple every 20 go up a fold every 40.
that's the kind of numbers you're interested then a 10-year bond today is full over two percent so I think the stock market's the best place to be for the next 10 20 30 years the next two years no I've never known what the next two years are going to bring I take a coin out and flip it I have no idea what the next thousand points the next six thousand points gonna be up the next fourteen thousand points a year the next twenty thousand points but you don't know what the next thousands could be up nobody does and it's futile to try and guess it corporate profits will be a lot higher 10 years from now they'll be long higher 20 years from now that's what you can rely on Microsoft didn't exist one years ago Staples and exists 20 years Federal Express didn't exist 20 years ago new companies will come along that's what makes Amgen has two one billion dollar drugs they didn't exist 20 years ago newcomies will come along that's what makes this country work what do you say if you have read one up on Wall Street which are the other key lessons from Lynch you learned from this book please share in the comments section below
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