Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger on Value Line Figures & Why Advanced Maths Investment Not Necessary

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버핏과 멍거는 12억 달러 규모 회사가 연 23% 복리 성장을 이어가기 어렵다고 말한다. 투자에 고급 수학보다 수리 감각(numeracy)이 유용하며, 여러 기업을 항상 비교하는 사고가 중요하다고 강조한다. 밸류라인 자료가 기업 비교의 좋은 기준이며, 많은 연차보고서 독서와 역사적 배경 학습을 권한다.

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01. it's hard to continue to grow at the rate you've grown in the past because the company has gotten so big and I'm wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on that my second question which is um totally unrelated but um I've also read uh where you're very good with numbers with working things in your head and um I'm totally a rookie when it comes to economics and accounting and things like that but uh I'm very good with numbers and keeping things in my head and um I'm wondering if there's some way uh a mathematician who knows very little about the business world uh what I could read or what I could do to learn um how better to invest uh and how you did that well going to the first question when you say it's going to be hard it's going to be impossible I mean I that's the answer we we we we cannot compound money at 23% from from a 12 billion doll base it uh we don't know how to do that and and uh it would be a mistake for anybody to think that we could come close to that we still we think we can do okay with money but but but the uh we did not start with a billion base and and we've never seen anybody in the world compound numbers like that at that rate so we'll forget it that part of it but we'll there are intelligent things we can be doing the second part of the question I don't think I don't think any great amount of mathematical aptitude is is is not aptitude but mathematical knowledge is a advanced mathod is of no use uh in the investment process an understanding of mathematical relationship sort of a an ability to quantify uh en numeracy as they call it I think that's generally helpful in Investments because it something that tells you when things make sense or don't make sense or sort of how one an item in one area relates to something someplace else but that that doesn't really require any great mathematical ability it really requires sort of a mathematical awareness and and a numeracy and and uh um I think it is a help to be able to see that I mean I think Charlie and I probably when we read about one business we're always thinking of it against the a screen of dozens of businesses it's just sort of automatic and uh but that's just like a ball you know a scout in baseball thinking about one baseball player against an alternative I mean you only have a given number on the squad and and they're thinking you know one guy may be a little faster one guy can hit a little bit better all of that sort of thing and it's always in your mind you are you are you prioritizing and selecting in some in in in some manner um my own feeling about the best way to apply that is just to to read everything in sight you know I mean if you if you're reading a few hundred annual reports a year and you've and you've read Graham and fiser and a few things uh you'll soon see whether it kind of falls into place or not Charlie yeah I think the set of numbers the one set of numbers in America that are the best quick guide to measuring one business against another are the value line numbers I'd agree with that that's stuff on the log scale paper going back 15 years that is the best one-hot description of a lot of big businesses that exists in America I I can't imagine anybody being in the investment business involving Common Stocks without that thing on the shelf and if you sort of have in your head how all of that looks in different Industries and different businesses then you've got a backdrop against which to measure I mean you know if you never if you never watched a baseball game and never seen a statistic on it you wouldn't know whether a 300 hitter was a good hitter or not you have to have some kind of a a mosaic there that that you're that uh that your thinking is implanted against an effect and and the the value line figures you know they they cycle it every 13 weeks and if you if you Ripple through that uh you'll have a pretty good idea of what's happened over time in in in in American Business by the way I pay no attention to their timeliness ratings or stock ratings no none of that means anything at the it's too bad they have to put that there but that it's the statistical material not the I would like to have that material going all the way back they cut it off about what 15 years back yeah but I saved the old ones yeah but you know I I I wish I had that in the office but I don't yeah yeah we Charlie and I I maybe even I do it more we tend to go back and I mean if I'm buying Coca-Cola I'll probably go back and read the fortune articles from the 1930s on it or something I I like a lot of historical background on things just to sort of get it in my head as to how the business has evolved over time and what's been permanent and what hasn't been permanent and all of that I probably do that more for fun than for for actually decision making but it uh I think I think it is I think if you think about if we're we're trying to buy businesses we want to own forever you know and and if you're if you're thinking that way you might as well see what it's been like to own them forever and look back always