Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger on Intrinsic Value, Earnings Efficiency, & Always Learning

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버크셔의 본질가치는 미래 현금흐름 할인값으로, 보유 상장주식(약 800억 달러)과 영업자산 가치에 더해 유보이익을 얼마나 효율적으로 재투자하느냐가 핵심이라고 설명. 1965년 섬유사업 시절에도 보험업 등 재투자 능력이 가치를 결정했다고 회고. 멍거는 버핏의 장기 학습 능력과 자본배분 인재 승계 체계, 합리성 중심 문화를 강조. 특정 상장사나 자산에 대한 가격 예측은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. uh this is phel Mcall from Connecticut I wondered if you could comment on a subject I don't think you'd like to talk about very much which is intrinsic value and the evolution over the past 10 or 12 years of going to uh off and on but giving us in in Investments and then giving us the operating income and suggesting that might be a good guide to us I find it extremely helpful uh I'm not other people do when looking out the 20 years you're talking about looking ahead on both those two parts any comment you might have I Surly appreciate yeah well the intrinsic value of a birkshire uh like any other businesses based on the future amount of cash that can be expected to be delivered by the business between now and Judgment Day discounted back at the proper rate now that's pretty nebulous another way of looking at it is to try and figure out the value of the businesses we own presently and we try to give you the information that will enable you to make a reasonably close estimate is that we own lots of marketable Securities it's probably safe to say that that that they are worth more or less what they are carried for and then we own a number of operating businesses and we try to give you the figures on those businesses that are the figures that we use in in making our own judgments about the value of those businesses now that tells you what what we have today and more or less what it's worth but since burshire retains all of its earnings it becomes very important to evaluate what will be done with those earnings over time I mean it it it is not only a question what the present businesses are worth it's a it's a judgment on the on the efficiency or Effectiveness with which retained earnings will be used if you had looked at the intrinsic value of birkshire in 1965 we had a textile business that was probably worth about $12 a share uh but that was not the only part of the equation because we intended to use any cash generated to try and buy into better businesses than we had and we were fortunate enough to be able to buy in the insurance business in 1967 and build on that so it was not only a combination for the business we had but the skill with which retained earnings would be used that determined uh what the present value actually should have been at Berkshire going back that far it's the same situation today we will put to work billions and billions of dollars this year next year the year after if we put that to work effectively each dollar has a greater present value than a dollar has and simply in cash or distributed if we if we do it ineffectively it it has value of something less the businesses today you know we have whatever the figure is in the annual report uh roughly $80,000 in marketable Securities if our insurance business breaks even that $80,000 is free to us in terms of using it and we have a group of operating businesses and we show their earnings in the in the report and we're going to try and add to those and they'll try to add to their earnings um but if Charlie and I were each right now to write down on a piece of paper what we think the intrinsic value of Berkshire is our figures would not be the same they'd be reasonably close uh and uh I think with that I'll turn it over to Charlie yeah what's hard to judge at birkshire is the is the likelihood that you'll have anything like the past to look forward to in the future Berkshire has gotten very extreme in terms of investment results in fact it's gotten so extreme that it's hard to think of another similar precedent in the history of the world and the balance sheet is is gross considering uh the small beginnings of the place now what on Earth is caused this extreme record to go on for such a very long time I would argue that the young man who was reading everything he could read when he was 10 years old uh became a learning machine and he got a lot of power early and then he got a very long run when he kept learning if Warren had uh not been learning all the while I'm telling you having watch the process closely the record would be a pale shadow of what it is and Warren has improved since he passed the retirement age of man in other words in this field at least you can improve when you're old now most people don't even try and create that kind of a record they pass power from one 165 year old to 159 year old and then do it over and over again but you get an enormous Advantage from practice in this field and so what happened Accidentally In the case of Warren has helped you shareholders greatly because you had this long run with power extremely concentrated and uh and with the man holding the power being a ferocious learner uh our our system ought to be more copied than it is this idea of of passing the power from one old cajer to another in a settled way is not necessarily the right system at all we we have a very strong culture now of of rationality of being owner oriented that will go on long after I'm not around uh and and we have the talent on the operating side in place to do a lot of wonderful things over time we we will need in capital allocation to keep doing intelligent things we won't get to do brilliant things because you don't get to do brilliant things with the kind of sums we're talking about maybe once in a blue moon something you know you get a chance but we will need somebody uh that never does it basically doesn't do any dumb things and occasionally does something that's it's reasonably good that can be done and and we have we're on that road all the already uh it is not fitting into this organization as a investment officer or a capital allocator you're getting in the right vehicle it has the right standards it will reject ideas that that really are irrational I I've been on a lot of boards Charlie's been on a lot of boards you would be amazed at the number of things that are responding to animals Spirits rather than the rationality that take place and we have our animal spirits but we devote them to other areas