저자: HueFinNews · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 폭락 경고는 시점 없이 모호하며, 차트상 S&P500은 아직 상승 추세로 판단된다. 마이클 버리는 최근 암시적 트윗으로 주식시장 폭락을 시사했고, 언론들이 이를 기사화했다. 진행자는 한 개인이 가격을 움직일 수 없으며 시장은 집단적 판단이라고 주장한다. 버리의 발언은 시간 프레임이 없어 검증이 어렵고, 2008년 금융위기도 사전에 여러 사람이 언급했다고 지적한다. 사후에 맞았다고 주장하는 것이 흔하다는 취지다. 차트 근거: S&P500은 하락 추세선을 돌파했고, 2022년 12월 12일 하락선 저항 이후 3,800포인트 지지가 유지되었다. 이 상승 추세선을 새 지지선으로 본다. 추세선이 깨지기 전까지 상승 지속이 기본 시나리오다. 목표가: 진행자가 2022년 11월 20일 영상에서 제시한 S&P500 목표가(약 4,200~4,300포인트)가 아직 유효하다고 본다. 주간·2주·3주·5주 봉에서 매도세가 보이지만 상승 가능성이 우세하다고 분석한다. 나스닥과 다우도 강세로 보며, S&P500이 4,300 부근에서 고점을 형성할 가능성을 언급한다. 리스크: 추세선 이탈 시 추세 전환을 의심해야 한다. 진행자는 시장 판단을 차트에 맞추고 수익 관리를 강조한다. 특정 분석 기간이나 확률은 명시하지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 버리는 장기적으로는 맞을 수 있으나 향후 10개월 내 폭락은 불확실하다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
foreign today is the 14th of February 2023 man let's talk about Michael Berry today because he's been sending out some cryptic tweets uh kind of trying to insinuate that price and the stock market is going to crash and that price is going to go down and I'm looking at the chart and the chart is not reflecting that see we need to come to realize that one individual does not move price we have a plethora of thousands maybe hundreds of thousands of businesses individuals who comes in also believes a certain way so when I come in and do my videos I'm looking at the market as a collective as a whole and not just one person what if the things that Michael bourbon has been tweeting has been saying if he's wrong and the market is right we're going to talk about it today on the video first take a look at this all you have to do is Type in microburry and Google and you you'll see a lot of Articles talking about them namely these down here that I've highlighted big short investor Michael Berger Compares stock market to a.com bubble in a cryptic tweet that was five days ago look at you today big short hero Michael burry deletes his Twitter account after posting cryptic Market prediction Alpha a week ago The Big Short Michael burry says sell inflation is not over and they got Market Insider bit short Michael burry hints Star Market rally would end with epic crash okay eventually we'll see it I'm quite sure I keep it real yes things go up and also things come down the sad part about these articles and even about Micah Berry is that there's no time frame okay there's no time frame just like when the financial crash happened in 2008 quite sure people was talking about that occurring maybe two three years before it actually happened so if we cannot quantify these cryptic tweets that Michael bird is insinuating people to grab it on to to get the clicks how does that benefit us as a whole because as he's been coming out with these tweets as these articles has been coming out on the internet look at the price action in the s p 500.
take a look the market hasn't actually broken outside of the downtrend but if you were to pay attention to all the information that is being created from Michael burry you would have already thought that the market in fact would have gone down rather than trending higher rather than Breaking outside of the downtrend line see we need to become we need to become accustomed to looking at price and price only now let's say that we we value microburry's information his content the things that he says we pay attention to those things right there's nothing wrong with paying attention to certain individuals but make sure that what they're telling you matches the chart because if it does then they're correct if it doesn't then they're wrong because guess what the market is never wrong as you guys can tell somebody is buying the s p 500.
obviously it's not Michael burry because he's the one dropping the cryptic tweets and saying everything is a cell and then it's going to end in the epic crash then who in the world is buying this index who is somebody is and it seems to me like overwhelmingly there's more buyers than our people looking for a crash so right now Michael bird is standing on the island by himself will he eventually be correct of course yeah but when is going to be the next 10 years when we see that epic crash was going to be in the next 10 months because eventually he'll be right yeah he'll be right everyone is going to be right eventually because in 2008 for example leading up to the crash a lot of people wasn't talking about it But as time goes on here we are in years into the financial crisis 2008 now everyone is talking about I'm the one who called it I was the one who said that the Market's going to crash that was going to go through her financial calamity in the U.S Equity markets right so all of a sudden everyone has called the shot that's how it's going to go on the next crash all right that's how it's going to go when the crash actually happens then all of a sudden everybody predicted that was going to happen but right now nobody's really saying anything about a crash so Michael burry can come back and pull up his tweets that he already released and say I told you but right now the market is not going down visibly we can tell that the market is still trending higher and as a matter of fact I did a video for the S P 500 telling you all that on November the 20th 2022.
see the proof is still there go and look at the video is still in my playlist for the s p 500. just scroll to my playlist filter it out and you guys will find the video this is not rocket science don't make people think that this is a hard game because it's not you always follow the chart and right now the S P 500 is still strong the trend is still up as of right now we're not seeing any indication that the market is about to crash in S P 500 now you guys can see where I have my ultimate TP price at for my video it was right here and the marketing SP 500 almost came knocking on the door on the week of January the 30th 2023.
and the market is still trying to inch up there so even if we don't come all the way up here towards 42.27 we're still in profit right now if you were to get out the stock know what let's index now four and a half percent so since we have seen price in the S P 500 brake Trend we need to cut that Trend out it's no longer applicable it would have been applicable on this weekly price bar right here you guys can see that it was applicable right there so let me zoom in and show it to you this is how you can walk through the markets and see how everyone is is feeling right here on this weekly price bar December the 12th 2022 we got confirmation that price hit that descending line and it got rejected right so this could be in the start of us seeing price go down in s p right there this confirmation but we didn't get the follow through the following week look at that the market price action in S P 500 held 3 800 points the next three weeks price held it so whoever sold the week prior did not have any impact on continuing to lower price buyers came in on these three weeks it's just that simple price neglected not to fall below 3 800 points that is why the trend is up now in s p 500.
so now what we're going to do is since we're no longer trading down we're going to take this trend line and we're gonna utilize it as support that's it and until we see price in S P 500 break this newest trend then price is going to continually go higher okay so just like we got that weakness here on the week of December 12 2022 on the downtrend line the moment we see weakness come in on this ascending line we'll begin to know that the market is changing its thinking process of how bullish they are in an S P 500 just that simple okay so let's look at this on the two weeks chart because here on the two weekly chart we're noticing sellers they're coming in so in the next 10 days and 10 hours if the market and S P 500 closes at the high of this bar then the market bonnet whoever sold the prior two weeks whoever sold the prior two weeks here if the market closed high on this current two-week price War then the Market's still bullish is this that simple okay here it is again on the three weeks chart so yeah we're seeing selling coming into the market now in S P 500 so I really want to get more convincing evidence that the buyers are still interested in buying the SP 500 because if that's the case then where I have my ultimate TP price the market is not going to stop there it's going to contain and go higher maybe hit 4 300 points so I'm going to keep a lookout into the market in S P 500 because looking at this on the five weekly chart this definitely tells me that 4300 is in play into the marketing s p 500.
4300 points that five weekly price bar is definitely bullish see when you combine and you collectively look at the chart this five weekly price bar here I'ma show it to you because I really want people to learn that you can really see the market in a different vantage point and you can do it on your own okay then let me talk about these bars right here can't even break it down because this is storyline it's a story it's a language and if you understand how to interpret what the market is saying to you you can actually position yourself to capitalize from the move so now let's talk because when you look at these five weekly price bars okay this five weekly price bar which began or ended on February the 5th or not February September the 5th 2022 right let's start of this five weekly price bar is selling right so when you see that type of price bar you need to say all right cool I'm looking for the price in the s p 50016 to dip all right but in the prior five weeks in the five weeks following it look at the price action the charts Don't Lie the market went up instead so if that's the case then the weakness that we were anticipating didn't happen the market still went up anyway so the market is telling you something hey I know you guys thought price was going to continue to go down but we're looking for price to go up all right cool look at this fine we can find some Bar following it on November 14 2022 we're still seeing a mixture of weakness entering the market right you see that price break so I I guess the market is still weak like the market was in an indecision it it couldn't decide which Trend the market was going to follow it was going to continue to go down or what's going to continue to go up that is what those three five week price bars represent So when you say see this one you need to say all right cool Market is still showing us some weakness here but then you get this five weekly price bar there December 19 2022.
price spread look at it it's so small the five weekly price walks before it is wide the sellers then come through right here and then you get confirmation that the sellers didn't come through because the spread of this current fight we can find so far it's still strong so yeah Margaret bury invention will be right but from the Charter's perspective this Market is still bullish okay and you can look at the other indexes to the NASDAQ and even the Dow you guys will see that the market is still overly strong in those indexes as well so you may actually see the market in S P 500 try to top out around 4 300 points which would take us around 8.33 but as I always do there's price targets that you want to see hit not ultimate price targets like I said 4 200 points was one that we was looking at or it might have been a little bit lower let's go back and see my prior video in November to see what my price targets at what I'm going to do is I'm going to bring it up towards four to three hundred points now though okay so I'm gonna leave that alone but go ahead and give me your thoughts like I said cool to have people that you like and you like to see their different viewpoints and their opinions but take it with a grain of salt if it's not gelling with the money with the charts because charts don't lie make sure you maintain profitability and as always it's very different
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