Warren Buffett: Why It's Easy To Get Amazing Stock Market Returns

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결론: 장기적으로 이해 가능한 우량 기업을 골라 보유하고, 평판과 정직한 행동이 장기 성과의 바탕이라는 취지의 Q&A 영상. 투자 원칙: 5~15년 뒤 사업 모습을 이해할 수 있는 기업을 고르고, 정확한 수치보다 감을 갖고 자신의 능력 범위를 알아야 한다고 설명. 의사결정 방식: 자본이 제약된 상황에서 기존 보유 종목과 신규 기회를 비교해 매도 후 매수하는 구조였으며, 확실한 괜찮은 결과를 탁월하지만 불확실한 결과보다 선호했다고 회상. 실패와 교훈: 볼티모어 백화점·섬유 사업 등 실수 경험이 나쁜 사업을 구별하는 능력을 키웠다고 언급. 평판: 평판은 오랜 기간 쌓이며, 정직하고 올바르게 행동하는 것이 가장 중요하다고 강조. 인플레이션: 지속적으로 대규모 설비투자가 필요한 공익사업·철도는 인플레이션기에 불리하고, 한 번 투자하면 되는 브랜드 소비재·부동산은 유리하다고 설명. 질레트의 1939년 라디오 중계권 사례 인용. 경제학 독서: 애덤 스미스 『국부론』을 경제학 공부의 기반으로 추천. 인간관계: 좋아하는 사람의 장점을 닮고 싫은 행동은 버리라는 조언, 배우자는 지성·유머보다 성격을 보라는 멍거의 말 소개. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언 없음.

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01. we basically looked for companies where we thought we could understand what the future would look like five or 10 or 15 years hence and that didn't mean we have had to do it to four decimal places or anything of the sort but we we had to have a feel for it and and uh and we had to know our limitations so we stayed away from a lot of things and at that time uh prices were different so we in terms of knowing we were getting enough for our money it was a much easier decision than it is currently but there wasn't there weren't elaborate there no planning sessions or anything of the sort we just we kept reading and we kept thinking and and we kept looking at things that came along as Charlie described it in the movie and you know way comparing opportunity a with opportunity B and in those days we were Capital constrains so we usually had to sell something if we were going to buy something else and that always makes for you know that's the an interesting challenge always when you're measuring something you hold against something that has come along and to see which is more attractive and we probably leaned very much toward things where we felt we were certain to get a decent result than where we were hopeful of getting a brilliant result that's went with our our instincts and and kept putting one foot in front of the other Charlie what would you say well that's exactly what we did and and it worked wonderfully well and part of it is because there were such Splendid people and worked so constructively and part of it is we were a little lucky we had some good fortune now Warren says he was lucky to go to gico but not every 20-year-old was going down to Washington DC and knocking on the doors of empty buildings to try and find something out that he was curious about so we made some of our luck by being curious and seeking wisdom and we certainly recommend that to anybody else and there's nothing that produces W wisdom more thoroughly than really getting your own nose whacked hard when you make a mistake and we had a fair amount of that didn't we we had plenty of them if you'll read this book you'll see about a few of them we we uh we thought we knew the out the department store business in Baltimore and we thought we knew about the trading staff business and we've we uh we've had a lot of we've had a a lot of experience with bad businesses and that makes you appreciate a good one and to some extent it sharpens your ability to make distinctions between good and bad ones so and we've had a lot of fun along the way that helps too if you're enjoying what you're doing you know you're likely to get a better result than if you go to work with your teeth clenched every morning I think we were helped because we came from families where there were some admirable people and we tended to identify other admirable people better than we would have coming from a different background so my deceased wife used to say you can't accomplish much in one generation we owe a considerable amount both of us to the families we were raised in I think the family standards helped us to identify the good people more easily than we would have if we' had a more disadvantage background you he that one yeah yeah have you still got your father's briefcase or I still got it but I don't know where it is I can't carry it anymore it's worn out it's got holes in it yeah I've got my dad's um I got my dad's desk from 75 years ago this is pineapple juice in people were questioning that that thing they say it's good for your throat if you're going to talk a long time yes well of course reputation you get over a long period of time very few people are like Charles Lindberg where you just suddenly have a great reputation most of us have to acquire one very slowly and that was true in bur's case and any individual you just have to get the best reputation you can in the Years you're alloted and the time available and it may work out well it may work out poorly but it's a it's a wise investment I see all the time opportunities come to people where it's their it's The credibility they've gotten in the past that causes them to have the new opportunity so I think hardly anything is more important than behaving well as you go through life and uh and I I I think we we actually try to behave better as we got more prosperous and I think you'd be crazy if you didn't so I certainly recommend you follow those old-fashioned principles and I don't think there's any way of guaranteeing a total Powerhouse brand nor can if a result is a one and 50 million type result you're probably not going to get them Johnny anelli of Fiat back in I think it was 1988 I was at dinner with him one time and uh he said something to me it stuck with me said when you get old he says you'll have the reputation you deserve he said in the he said for a while you can you can uh uh fool people fool people but he says when he was talking about himself at the time and but he said when you when you get to be my age he says you whatever reputation you have it's probably the one you deserve and I think the same is true of companies that U and it's and and frankly you know it has helped Burkshire a whole lot uh uh that it has gotten a reputation to be a somewhat different sort of company I mean it uh uh I don't think we set out to do that exactly but but it has worked out that way okay this is a question oops that's not the question hold on ah here it is uh this is a question from John Wells right here in Omaha uh and he says you've described inflation as a gigantic corporate tapeworm which which of berkshire's businesses are best suited to thrive during a period of high inflation and why which will suffer and suffer the most and why yeah well the best businesses inflation during inflation are usually the best they're the businesses that you buy once and then you don't have to keep making Capital Investments subsequently so you you you get you do not face the problem of continuous reinvestment in involving greater and greater dollars because of inflation uh that's one reason real estate in general is good during inflation if you built your own house 55 years ago like Charlie did or bought one 55 years ago like I did uh it's a one-time outlay whereas if you're and you get the you get an inflationary expansion in replacement Capital without having to replace yourself and if you got something that's useful to someone else it tends to be priced in terms of replacement value over time so you really get the inflationary kick uh now if you're in a business such as the utility business or the railroad business it just keeps eating up more and more money and your depreciation charges are inadequate and you're kidding yourself as to your real economic profit so any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in in inflation and often it's a poor business to be in generally uh and the business where you where you buy something once uh a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation you know C's candy built their brand many years ago now we've had to nourish it as we've gone along but the value of that brand uh increases uh during inflation just is the value of of of really any any strongly branded Goods uh Gillette bought the entire radio rights to the World Series in 1939 and as I remember it cost them $100,000 and for that they they got to broadcast the Yankees I think versus the Reds in 1939 and think of the number of Impressions they made on mines in in $ 1939 for $100,000 and they were getting into the minds of young guys like myself I was eight or nine and millions of people and they did it in those dollars then and of course if you were going to go out and try and do have a similar Impressions on millions of Mines now it costs a fortune and part of that's due to inflation part of it's due to other things but it was a great investment which could be made in 19 $39 that paid off in terms of selling selling razors and blades in 1960 and 1970 and $1 19980 uh so that's the kind of business you want to own Charlie well yeah but if the inflation ever goes completely out of control you have no idea how it's going to end up if it weren't for the Yar inflation we might never have had 80 Hitler it was the Tome of the great German inflation followed by the Great Depression that brought us Hitler and think of the price that the world paid for that one we don't want inflation because it's good for Seas candy I didn't quite realize I was proposing I'm not wasn't criticizing what's good for C candy is good for United States this question um this question which is a little bit offbeat comes from Jordan shopoff of Melbourne Australia uh Mr Buffett in the forward to the sixth edition of Benjamin Graham's Security analysis you identified four books that you particularly cherish three of these books were authored by Graham himself and their influence on you is well known the contributions of the fourth book to your thinking however that that book was Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations published in 1776 what that book meant to you is seldom discussed so my question is what did you learn from The Wealth of Nations and how did it shape your investment and B business philosophy well it doesn't shape my investment philosophy but it certainly learned economics from it and uh uh my um friend Bill Gates gave me a original copy of it though I uh was able to study it as Adam Smith wrote it in 1776 it's you know there's just if you read Adam Smith and if you read canes uh Ricardo uh and then uh and if you also read that little book we've got out there called where are the customer Yachts you will you will uh have a lot of wisdom it U uh I forgot to mention I was supposed to mention too we we didn't want to put it on sale earlier uh because it would have given away the movie but we do have birkshire bomber uh underwear out there or sweatshirts or whatever it may be so Fruit of Loom has those and we have French sweats where the customer Yachts book which contains an incredible amount of wisdom in very few pages and very entertaining but if you want to go for if you want to uh not only get a lot more wisdom but appear more area night uh you you should read The Wealth of Nations also Charli well yeah guys is really worn well I mean he is rightly recognized as as one of the wisest people that ever came along and of course the lessons that he taught way back then were taught again when communism failed so terribly and people like Singapore and Taiwan and China and so forth came up so fast uh uh the productive power of the capitalist system is simply unbelievable and he understood that fully and early and uh he's done a lot of good I took an idea of his on the specialization of laborhood you know and he talked about people making pins or something but I applied it actually to philanthropy you know I mean the idea that you let other people do what they best at and stick with what your best at I've carried from mowing my lawn to philanthropy and it it's a wonderful thing to just shove off everything and saying somebody else is better than that then I am at that and uh and then work in the field that that's most productive for you it's you didn't do your own bowel surgery either no I'm not sure I have any reply to that buffet and Mr Mong my my name is Neil gady wall from South Florida and I'm currently in seventh grade my question is how do you make lots of friends and get people to like you and work with you that's not a bad question very good question well you know I was pretty obnoxious when I was your age and asked a lot of impertinent questions and and not everybody liked me and and so the only way I could get the people to like me a little bit was to get very rich and very generous that will work people will see all kinds of Virtues in you if they think you'll Rite a check yeah the two is both Charlie and I were on the obnoxious side early on but you should you should get a little smarter about human behavior as you get older and and I turned out to have some pretty good teachers as I went along in terms of what worked I mean I I have looked at other people and during my lifetime and had these wonderful teachers they weren't they weren't teachers in the in in in in the standard definition but they were people I admired and I thought to myself why do I admire these people and if I want to be admired myself you know why shouldn't I take on some of their qualities so it's it's not a complicated proposition you know if you if you look around you at the people you like in your school write down three or four things they do that make you like them and then look around at the three or four people that turn you off and write down those qualities and decide that you're going to be a person you yourself would like that you take on the qualities of the person on the left you're generous you're friendly you know you you accept things with Good Humor you don't claim credit for things you don't do all of these things and they're all possible to do and if you like that in other people people are going to like it in you and if you find things that are kind of obnoxious you're always late and you're always claiming credit for more than you do and you're kind of negative on everything and you don't like those in other people get rid of them in yourself and you'll find out it works pretty well it really works in marriage if you can change yourself instead of trying to change your spouse that's a good idea Charlie has said the most important thing in selecting a marriage partner is that you don't look for intelligence or humor character says you look for someone with low expectations