저자: WarrenBuffett,CharlieMunger · 외국인
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워런 버핏과 찰리 멍거가 2023년 버크셔 해서웨이 주주총회 Q&A에서 투자 학습법, 공매도, 도박 산업에 대해 답변한 내용이다. 이 영상은 특정 종목이나 자산의 향후 가격 방향에 대한 예측을 담고 있지 않다. 투자 학습 방법에 대해 버핏은 가능한 모든 것을 읽고 작은 규모로 직접 투자 경험을 쌓으라고 조언했다. 그는 19세에 읽은 책이 지금까지 사고의 틀이 되었다고 언급했다. 투자 태도에 대해 샌디 고트스먼의 채용 방식을 예로 들며, 주식은 사업의 일부를 소유하는 것이라는 관점에서 접근해야 한다고 강조했다. 지원자가 왜 그 기업을 그 가격에 사야 하는지 설명하지 못하면 투자 자격이 없다는 것이다. 공매도에 대해 버핏은 공매도자를 큰 위협으로 보지 않으며, 버크셔 주식에 대한 공매도도 환영한다고 밝혔다. 공매도자는 결국 언젠가 주식을 사는 매수자가 된다는 논리다. 멍거는 결제 시스템의 지연 문제를 지적하며 이것이 금융 시스템의 위험 요소가 될 수 있다고 우려했다. 도박 산업에 대해 버핏은 도박 회사가 합법이라면 미래가 밝을 것이라고 봤지만, 도박은 무지에 대한 세금이라며 정부가 시민의 약점을 이용하는 것을 비판했다. 멍거는 카지노가 의도적으로 사람에게 해를 끼친다고 지적했고, 버크셔는 카지노 사업에 투자하지 않을 것이라고 밝혔다. 이 영상에서 대상 자산(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등)에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 발견되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
good morning I'm Thomas camay from San Francisco I'm 17 years old and this is my 10th consecutive annual meeting you must be a PhD by now at least Mr Buffett Mr Monger I'm curious about what you think is the best way to become a better investor should I get an MBA get more war expense read more Charlie Munger almanacs or merely is it genetic and out of my hands well I think you should read everything you can uh I can I can tell you in my own case I think by the time I was I know by the time I was 10 I'd read every book in the Omaha Public Library that had anything to do with investing and many of them I'd read twice so I don't think there's anything like reading and not just as limited to investing at all but uh you just got to fill up your mind with various competing thoughts and sort them out as to as to what uh really makes sense over time and then once you've done a lot of that I think you have to jump in the water because investing on paper and doing you know and and investing with real money you know is like the difference between reading a romance novel and doing something else so I I would I I there is nothing like actually uh uh having a little experience in investing uh and and you soon find out whether you like it if you like it if it turns you on you know you're probably going to do well on it but and the earlier you start uh the better in terms of reading but you know I read a book at age 19 that formed my framework for thinking about Investments ever since I mean what I am doing today at 76 is running things through the same thought pattern that I got from a book I read when I was 19 and I read all the other books too but if you and you have to read a lot of them to know which ones really do jump out at you and which ideas jump out at you over time so I would say that uh read and and then on a small scale in a way that can't hurt you financially do some of it yourself Charlie well Sandy gottisman who is a Berkshire director runs a large and successful investment operation and you can tell what he thinks causes people to learn to be good investors by noticing his Employment Practices when a young man comes to Sandy he has a very simple question no matter how young the man is he says what do you own and why do you own it and if you haven't been interested enough in the subject to have that involvement already anyway he'd rather you go somewhere else yeah it's very that whole idea that you own a business you know is vital to the investment process if you were going to buy a farm you'd say I'm buying a 160 Acre Farm because I expect that the farm will produce 120 bushels an acre of corn or 45 bushels an acre of soybeans and I can buy the fertile you know you go through the whole process it'd be it'd be a quantitative decision and it would be based on pretty solid stuff would not be based on you know what you saw on television that day it would not be based on you know what your neighbor said to you or anything of the sort it's the same thing with socks I used to always recommend my students that they take a yellow pad like this and if they're buying 100 shares of General Motors at 30.
and General Motors has whatever it has out 600 million shares or a little less that they say I'm I'm going to buy the General Motors Company for 18 billion dollars and here's why and if they can't write a good essay on that subject they've got no business buying 100 shares or 10 shares or one share at thirty dollars per share because they they are not subjecting it to business tests and to get in the habit of thinking that way you know Sandy would have followed it up with the questions based on how you answered the first two questions that made you defend exactly why you thought that business was cheap at the price at which you're buying it and any other answer you'd flunk them number 11.
naked shorting I think is the question um I don't know exactly I've never been in a position where I've asked him a broker from whom I bought stock to give me the certificate and had them decline it for any period of time I would think that that you might have some action against them but I've never I do not see the problem at all with with people shorting socks I mean I I would welcome people shorting Berkshire Hathaway I mean it if you own stock and they need to borrow from you you can get some extra income from your stock and the one sure buyer of your stock eventually is somebody who shorted it I mean that guy's going to buy it someday and I have no I have no problem with with shorts if there's some kind of a game that's played uh and I've read about it I've never seen it happen to anything that we've owned uh like I say if anybody wants the naked short Berkshire Hathaway they can do it till the cows come home and and we'll be uh we'll be happy to we'll have a special meeting for him but uh and I I would say this the shorts generally have the tougher time of it in this world I mean there are more people ing stocks for phony reasons than there are bearing stocks uh for phony reasons so I I do not see shorts as any great threat to the world if if enough people shorted Berkshire stock they would have to borrow it and they would pay you to borrow your stock and that's you that's found money we did that on USG when USG got hammered after uh they went into bankruptcy or maybe just before one large brokerage firm came to us and they wanted us to lend them millions of shares and they paid us a lot of money and we happily lent them the stock we wish they'd borrowed more in fact we insisted that they borrowed for a given length of time just so that we could collect a large premium and I don't know how many I'd have to look it up but you know I don't know whether it's in the hundred thousands or maybe low Millions but we were better off and they didn't do too well shorting USG at four dollars a share either but it was immaterial to us uh so I do not regard I do not regard shorts as it's a tough way to make a living uh it's very easy to spot phony stocks and promoted stocks but it's very hard to tell when that'll turn around and and somebody has promoted a stock to five times what it's worth may very well promote it to ten times what it's worth and if you're short that can get very painful Charlie do you have any thoughts on shorting well not uncharting but those delays in in delivering sometimes reflect a tremendous slop in the clearance process and it is not good for a civilization to have a huge slop in the clearance processes for its security trades that would be sort of like having a lot of slop on the management of your Atomic power plants it's not a good idea to have have slop that causes a lot of financial exposure that people are ignoring and reach back into your law the practice if I buy a thousand shares of General Motors and my broker doesn't deliver it to me and I ask him to deliver it and he doesn't deliver it to me after a week or two weeks or three weeks what's the situation well if you're a private customer you may wait a while and the a lot of the other trades clearance systems do cause people to put a collateral and so on but uh a lot of take derivative trading there's a lot of slop and derivative Trading and the clearance problem would be awful if a lot of people wanted to do something at once but if I demand delivery after three weeks can I can I walk into court and say I want my stock I've given you the money I don't think there's any court that can use your stocking certificate just because you want it no the clearance system is failing you away you can scream a lot and you may have some ultimate remedy but but there's I'll get somebody else to represent me number nine hello my name is Johan freudenberg from Hanover Germany do you think gambling companies will have a great future thank you gambling gambling companies will have a terrific future if they're legal that you know which ones or anything I don't know anything about that but desire of people to gamble and they gamble in stocks incidentally too day trading I would say in very often was came very close to gambling as defined uh but people people like to gamble you know I mean it's if if the Super Bowl is on or even well the better yet if a terribly boring football game is on but you don't have anything to do uh and you're sitting there with somebody else you're probably going to enjoy the game more if you bet a few bucks on it one way or the other uh as you know I mean we ensure hurricanes so I watch the Weather Channel but that's uh it can be exciting but people the the the human propensity to gamble is is huge now when it was legalized only in pretty much in Nevada he had to go to some distance or break some laws to do any serious gambling but as the states learn to uh you know what a great source of of Revenue it was they gradually made it easier and easier and easier for people to gamble and believe me the easier it's made uh the more people will gamble I mean when I was look my my children are here and 40 years ago uh I bought a slot machine and I put it up on our third floor and I could give my kids any allowance they wanted as long as it was in dimes I mean I had it all back by Nightfall I thought I thought it would be a good lesson for him and now they weren't going to Las Vegas to do it but believe me when I was on the third floor they could find it you know and uh my payout ratio was terrible too but that's the kind of father I was uh they uh but gambling you know people are always going to want to do it and for that reason I particularly think that access I know you know in terms of friendly gambling or anything like that I'm not a prude about it but I do think that to quite an extent gambling is a tax on ignorance I mean if you want to if you want to tax the the ignorant people who will do things with the odds against them you know you just put it in and guys like me don't have to pay taxes and I I really don't I find that I find it kind of socially revolting when a governor a government preys on the weaknesses of its citizenry rather than acts to serve them and and believe me when a government sticks like yeah I yeah when a government makes it easy for people to take their Social Security checks and start pulling handles uh or participating in lotteries or whatever it may be it's a pretty cynical act it works it's a pretty cynical act and it uh it it relieves taxes on those you know who who don't fall for those and or who don't weren't dreaming about having a car instead of actually having a car dreaming about a color TV instead of having one uh so it's it's not government at its best and I think other things flow from that over time too Charlie argue that the Gam P clever psychological tricks to cause people to hurt themselves there is undoubtedly a lot of harmless Amusement in the casinos but there's also a lot of Grievous injury that is deliberately caused by the casinos it's a dirty business and I don't think you'll find a casino soon in Berkshire Hathaway hmm a number 10 please
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