Tax Cuts and Tax Hikes, How Do They Affect the Economy? Ken Fisher Answers

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결론: 세금 인상·인하 자체는 주가 방향과 통계적으로 뚜렷한 관계가 없으며, 시장이 이미 이를 선반영한다. 핵심 주장: 미국은 자본이득세·개인소득세·법인세 등 다양한 세율 변경의 오랜 역사가 있고, 발표·시행 시점 전후 1개월·3개월·6개월·12개월 등 주가를 측정해도 일관된 효과가 나타나지 않는다. 근거: 세금 인하 후 주가가 오른 사례가 있으나, 같은 유형의 인상 후 주가가 같은 폭으로 오른 사례도 비슷한 수만큼 존재한다. 세금 인하가 좋고 인상은 나쁘다는 믿음은 확증편향에 가깝다. 결론적 조언: 세금 변화를 근거로 주가 방향을 예측하지 말고, 역사적 데이터를 확인하라. 특정 자산이나 종목에 대한 구체적 방향 예측은 없다. 출연자 전망: 세금 변화에 따른 주가 방향 예측은 통계적으로 근거가 약하다는 입장.

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01. so as i think you know whenever we get a new president the president proposes various things that range from spending programs to tax hikes tax cuts of all varied types uh and you know that happens over and over and over and it happened all my life the fact is at a time like that a lot of people get excited about the hikes or the cuts and the spending programs and this is the nuts and it's easy to see why that's true why they get excited about them but as it relates to stock prices this is a somewhat different matter and as it relates to stock prices there's an easy thing that we can say that i would have you apply to many other things in life as well we have this very very very long history of tax hikes and cuts of every type in parallel in america longer than and better than in any other country we have a very very long history of accurate stock prices so that we can measure the one against the other to see what the effect is and i'm just going to say to you which no one wants to believe that there is no demonstrable effect that you can see of tax hikes or cuts of any type let me just say that again because people have a very hard time with that a lot of people have views on tax hikes and cuts but whatever your views are markets pre-price and process that stuff really really well in effect in advance the fact is we've had capital gains hikes and cuts we've had personal income hikes and cuts we've had corporate tax hikes and cuts we can measure when they were first talked about we can measure when they were enacted we can measure what happened to stocks on one month six months three months 17 months if you want 12 and a half months if you want i don't really care and you can't find it there there why because markets pre-price all this stuff really really well so when you see people say boy oh boy stocks ought to do this because there's going to be a tax cut or a tax hike well you can find lots of examples in fact in history where you had a tax cut and stocks went up but for every time of that you can find a comparable number where there was a tax hike and stocks went up the same amount and of the same type personal income again corporate income tax capital gains tax whatever it is that notion which is just a bias that we have that tax cuts good tax cuts bad hurts you when you think about where stock prices are moving because we have this very long history and i encourage you whenever there's a very long history of anything that you can measure with some precision like the cuts and the hikes and stocks look to see what's happened before because in these things history is a pretty good guide the fact is after tax cuts or hikes stocks have to do something but our confirmation bias tends to make us only see and recognize the ones that end up doing what we believed they should and would whereas in fact when you actually look at all of them of all types statistically there's no there there if there's no there there statistically there isn't there there and you shouldn't expect there to be on