저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 과거 통화 가치 하락 사례를 통해 역사 패턴과 인과관계를 공부해야 하며, 외화표시 부채 비중과 재무 안정성이 위기 대응의 핵심이라는 교훈. [개인 경험] 12세에 첫 주식(노스이스트 항공, 5달러 미만 종목)을 매수해 시장에 입문했다. 이후 대학 졸업 후 뉴욕증권거래소 플로어에서 근무했다. [1971년 금 태환 중단] 1971년 8월 15일 닉슨 대통령이 금 태환 의무 불이행을 발표했을 때 시장이 크게 하락할 것으로 예상했으나 오히려 크게 상승했다. 이는 통화 평가절하를 처음 겪은 경험이었다. [역사 연구의 중요성] 1933년 3월 5일 루스벨트의 동일한 통화 조치를 역사에서 찾아 같은 효과를 확인했다. 인생에서 일어나지 않은 일도 역사에서는 반복되므로, 패턴과 그 이면의 인과관계를 연구해야 한다고 강조했다. [외화부채 리스크] 부채가 자국 통화로 표시되어 있는지가 핵심이다. 많은 신흥국은 달러 표시 부채가 많아, 달러 강세 시 원리금 상환 부담이 커지고 현지 통화 수입으로는 부족해져 악순환에 빠진다. 이후 통화 발행 증가와 평가절하가 이어지며, 자국 통화 채권 보유자는 손실을 입는다. [재무 안정성] 소득과 대차대조표가 튼튼하면 하락 리스크 방어와 기회 포착 모두에 유리하다. 수입이 없을 경우 몇 개월 또는 몇 년을 버틸 수 있는지 점검하고, 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오를 구성하는 것이 중요하다. [예측 발언] 영상에서 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다. 금·환율 등은 과거 사례 설명으로만 언급되었다.
다듬은 글
when I was a kid I carried I delivered newspapers I did a bunch of jobs when I was a kid at age 12 I bought my first stock I was cutting the stock market was hot at the time um people I counted for were talking about it uh the first stock I bought was a stock by the name of Northeast Airlines the only criteria I had was that it was selling for less than five dollars a share I figured I could buy more shares and if it went up I'd go more money that was done but the company was about to they go bankrupt another company acquired it it tripled in value and I was hooked on the markets so I was hooked on the markets um at the beginning of 12 and that's my game okay now fast forward um that's 12.
at 22 10 years later so 1971 I was following the markets and between graduating from college and going to graduate school I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and um in that intervening period there was a lot of aspirations a lot of um desire and you know to go to the Moon to eliminate poverty to make equality in the United States and so on so in that early era when there was Kennedy and and that made me an optimism and then but during that 10 years the fact is that there was a lot of borrowing of money a lot of deficits back then um gold was money and uh money as we know it was like checks in the checkbook that would go get you the gold you can turn in your paper money for gold but gold was the real money and because the United States had borrowed a lot more money than it um had uh it wrote a lot more checks than it had gold in the bank and so on August 15 1971 when I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange I watched on television as President Nixon defaulted on the obligation to pay gold for for the cash he went on and he said you know they won't you won't get the gold and of course he didn't say it that way he said it in a way where it sounded like there were speculators and so on and he had to do it but you could get the gold and so on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange I walked on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and I thought the market was going to go down a lot because after all this is a big crisis and the money as we know it ends and I couldn't have been more wrong it went up a lot and um what happened was I never went through a currency devaluation before because in my lifetime there was no currency devaluation so that's the first time it happened so I went back and I looked in history and I found the exact same thing happen on March 5th 1933 except rather than the television and Nixon it was the radio in Roosevelt and he made the exact same announcement and had the exact same effect and at that time I learned two things two big things I learned that first that many things that never happened in my lifetime seemed surprising at the time and that I needed to study things that happened before my lifetime to understand them so when certain things are happening like right now there are certain things that have never happened in our lifetime before but happened many times in history so in order to understand them just as you said in the beginning I need to understand the patterns and even more than the patterns the cause and effect relationships behind the patterns so that mistake taught me that I not needed to understand history and there was and and each of the mistakes has taught me my the big deal is whether the currency is the nominate the debt is the nominated in your own currency in your foreign currency and when it's denominated in foreign currency like these countries have a lot of dollar denominated debt then if they have a problem trying to service that dollar denominated debt when the dollar goes up and the money they're earning is in local currency then they don't have enough cash and then they get into that spiral and as a result of that they have to print more money the currency depreciates and it happens in a very mechanical way most of the countries don't have Reserve currencies don't have the debt denominated in their own currency and as a result most of their crisises are of that sort and there's a dynamic as to how they complete the cycle in other words what happens is when the currency goes down in value essentially because of inflation and the like they wipe out the local currency debt if you own the local currency debt you're wiped out be financially strong have a good income and balance sheet income statement and balance sheet think about how many months or years years that you could live if you are um if you didn't have an income the more Financial Security you have the more maneuverability you have both to protect yourself on the downside and to take advantage of opportunities and to know how to achieve a balanced portfolio this is very important I think financially
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