저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
2023년 3월 영상. 결론: 인플레이션은 절벽처럼 빠르게 꺾이지 않고 임금 인플레이션 때문에 끈적하게 남으며, 올해 세계적 부채 위기와 경기침체가 올 가능성이 크다. 인플레이션 3단계 설명: 2021년은 에너지 인플레이션(휘발유 약 10달러 수준), 2022년은 상품 인플레이션(투입원가 상승)이 주도했고, 2023년은 임금 인플레이션 국면으로 본다. 임금 인플레이션 근거: 바이든의 철도 파업 저지 조치, 여러 주의 최저임금 인상, 노조 조직화 확대 추세를 들며 자본에서 노동으로 힘의 추가 크게 기울고 있다고 주장. 노동참가율 하락과 실업률 상승 가능성이 맞물려 인력 확보 비용이 올라 물가가 쉽게 안정되지 않는다고 본다. 역발상 베팅: 올해 임금 인플레이션 때문에 인플레이션이 시장 기대만큼 내려가지 않는다는 것. 부채 위기 전망: 전 세계 공공·민간 부채는 약 235조 달러, 세계 GDP는 약 96조 달러. 연간 이자 부담은 대략 5~15조 달러로 추정. 미국 연금·사회보장 등 미적립 부채 약 1.5조 달러 언급. 올해 여러 부채시장, 특히 신흥국 국가부채에서 문제가 터질 것으로 보며, 이때 IMF가 개입하고 IMF가 정치적 비난을 받을 것이라고 예상. 벤처/성장주: 성장 라운드 투자가 위축되어 대형 투자 대신 소액 시드·A라운드로 이동 중. 하드웨어·신바이오·바이오·고성장 기업용 소프트웨어 기업 대다수가 자금 조달 벽에 부딪혀 닷컴버블처럼 99.5%가 사라질 것이라 주장. 살아남는 소수가 구글·아마존 같은 기업이 된다고 봄. 소비자/경기: 올해 가장 큰 패자는 소비자. 개인부채와 신용카드 부채가 사상 최고 수준, 평균 카드금리 19.6%, 모기지 금리 7% 이상, 주식 포트폴리오 하락, 해고 증가가 겹쳐 침체를 피하기 어렵다고 봄. 연준이 금리를 5.4%까지 올릴 것이라는 예상(카쉬카리 발언 인용)에 대해, 금리 5.5%면 경제가 버티기 어렵다고 평가. 리스크: 금리 인상이 늦거나 빠른 것 모두 인플레이션 또는 성장 훼손으로 이어지는 딜레마. 신흥국 부채 리스크 상존. 종목/자산 언급: 대상 자산 목록에 해당하는 개별 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
inflation which people expect to fall off a cliff doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want and so I will explain inflation as three different chapters and we've seen the first two chapters play out so 2021 chapter one was all about energy inflation and you know we all talked about having almost ten dollar gas at the pump and what does it mean for everybody and it caused that initial Spike in inflation and then we had it come off and sax called this he said you know we're going to have this sort of double hump and 2022 was really the story of goods inflation right all these prices and all of these things went up because the input costs went up and we all had to Bear the implications of that but then that started to ebb now if you looked at the tail end of 2022 what I found super interesting was the number of articles I saw about wage inflation whether that was Biden using an 1800s era law to prevent a Railroad Strike the number of states that increased minimum wage the trend around unionization so in general my thought is that the pendulum is swinging very markedly away from capital and towards labor and as the labor participation rate stays low and continues to go down and also it's compounded by an unemployment rate that may go up right people are it's going to be harder and harder to get people to do the work you need at the company you have unless you pay them more and if that gets exaggerated then inflation will stay where it is it won't be as muted and it won't fall off a cliff as people want it'll be persistent that's my big contrarian got it wager for this year is that we that is quite sharing we see wage inflation that keeps inflation not going down as much as people want here's what I think is going to happen this year my big prediction is based on I think the world has too much debt I think that the economic slowdown coupled with Rising interest rates globally and a dearth of uh kind of asset Capital inflows means that there's going to be a lot of issues with a number of debt markets around the world particularly kind of emerging sovereign debt just to give you guys a sense Global debt is about 235 trillion dollars in public and private um you know that's somewhere between five and fifteen trillion dollars of interest payments a year depending on what the net rate is on 96 trillion dollar Global GDP and there's another trillion and a half of unfunded liabilities in the U.S and pensions and Social Security and all that sort of stuff I think this is the year where a lot of the debt markets start to unravel the the um the entity that steps in to try and support these um unwinding moments is the IMF and I think that no matter what the IMF does they're going to look bad I think that the you know it's sort of like like Jerome Powell this this past year right like you you raised rates too late you raise rates too quickly no matter what you do it has some adverse effect and impact it's either inflationary or it impacts growth and so I think the IMF is going to get a lot of heat for either acting not too soon uh or sorry not fast enough or or acting too aggressively and causing inflation as a bunch of these markets face credit risk this year so My Big bet is the IMF is going to play a major role and we're going to be talking a lot about the IMF later this year I think as a result the IMF will get a lot of heat and you'll end up seeing a lot of pressure and political you know just like we blame NATO just like we blame Jerome Powell and the FED will end up blaming the IMF for a bunch of problems uh that'll arise but the natural physics of what's going on is the world has too much debt and not enough growth to cover the debt the cost of debt that's it okay um as you guys know there's been a big shift in capital allocation a lot of the folks who were writing big checks into growth rounds are retreating back to writing smaller checks and seed and a rounds they don't want to write the 20 million dollar series B they want to write the five million dollar seat in a round uh no one wants to kind of follow the valuation no one wants to set the valuation for these growth businesses particularly if after this round you know you need another big round of capital and no one's sure if someone's going to be waiting on the other end as a result we're seeing tons of these businesses run into Capital infusion walls they can't pivot I think we'll see what we saw in the.com bubble we're 99 and a half percent of these companies actually die the half percent that we are going to emerge as the next hundred billion dollar Enterprise is the Googles and the Amazons of the world so there will be light at the end of the tunnel for the winners but generally there are hundreds of companies in Hardware in sinbio in biotech and high growth Enterprise software that require significant sales investment expense a lot of these businesses where the capital intensive nature of the business just doesn't have the market for it right now and my my Biggest Loser for business in 23 is the consumer I just don't understand how the consumer isn't going to finally tap out in this economy I mean they they have a mountain of personal debt credit card debts at all-time highs I think the average credit card rate hit 19.6 last week and is expected to rise even further uh the mortgage rates are above seven percent now so forget about trying to buy a new home or uh sell your home and your stock portfolio is down too and now layoffs are starting to pile up so I just don't understand how we're going to avoid a recession and you saw you know Kashkari saying that right the fed's gonna keep raising 5.4 percent is prediction you know I don't understand how if if rates are at five and a half percent that doesn't finally break the back of this economy and uh we go into recession
Comments 0