저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
Cathie Wood는 2022년 금리 급등으로 혁신주가 성과가 나빴지만 그 원인이 전략 자체의 문제는 아니라고 주장하며, 금리가 인하될 것으로 보고 있다. 자신의 전략은 장기 투자이며, 최근 부진은 금리 충격 때문이었고 이제 금리 고점 이후 시장이 연준 움직임을 넘어서 보기 시작했다고 설명한다. 2022년 채권까지 1700년대 이후 최악의 해였고, 혁신 장기 듀레이션 자산 전반이 타격을 받았다는 진단이다. 현재 포트폴리오는 시장 점유율을 늘리며 아웃퍼폼 중이며, 매출 성장과 마진 확대를 통해 회복하겠다고 말한다. 전기차 측면에서는 테슬라가 가격 인하를 통해 수요를 주도하고 있으며, 전기차 총소유비용(보험 포함)이 미국에서 이미 내연기관차 아래로 내려왔다고 주장한다. 자신의 펀드는 벤치마크(MSCI World, S&P, 나스닥)와 상관도가 낮고 액티브 비중이 5% 미만으로 분산 전략을 취한다고 설명한다.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood came out of USC a long time ago put out a shingle with a Lovelace family a capital group and then built an investment career quite different from others not so much based on the long-term solidity of a given portfolio but capturing the trend going up large and it's sometimes going down large she holds court on the ark Noah's Ark is where she is right now I want to know with all you've been through the last number of years are you going to shift to a more long-term strategy I look at Morningstar one year three year five year your bottom quartile but your claim is more short-term with your new ETF effort and with what you're doing with Arc are you going to be still on Trend or do you invest more for long term we we've always invested for the long term and what interrupted what was a very nice move up in Innovation stocks especially disruptive innovation was a massive increase in interest rates the likes of which we have never seen of course 24-fold increase so all long duration assets especially in 2022 were destroyed including bonds which are usually a flight to safety they had their worst year last year since the 1700s there's no way in that environment that our strategy would have done well but I do think that what's happening this year is that the market is starting to look over the fed's moves whether there's one more or not into falling interest rates you know we started underperforming in 21 just with the anticipation of rising rates and even more so in 20.
so how are you going to change I want to know how you're going to change the sobering quarters you've been through what is the new Kathy Wood approach to macroeconomics frankly pandemic economics intruding on your belief in Innovation uh anything Innovation gains traction during tough times and if you look at how the reason our our portfolios are outperforming this year is and they are and they are is it is because they are gaining share in what is becoming a difficult environment right right and so uh one by one we're going to earn our way back and it's all about Revenue growth margin expansion in the Wall Street Journal they do a fabulous thing with old farts like me and it's people with over five million dollars and they believed in Kathy Wood to a person those retirees bought Innovation they bought Tech they bought apple apple apple and they didn't listen to financial TV or radio can you do the Kathy Wood approach for one three five years given the volatility you've seen yes I think we're on the other side of that massive interest rate increase which did destroy a lot of performance that's the most important thing and we are ready for Prime Time many people are concerned about our kind of strategy and uh and the company we just acquired Rises because in Europe in London here for all of Europe and UK they're focused on global Mega Trends as well and you know interest rates hurt everyone in that space if we are right and rates are going to come down at some point in the next year you know there the market is a discounting mechanism then I think that the muscle memory that that hurt our strategy and it all has everything to do with the tech and Telecom bust and people thinking oh my gosh are we here again no what happened during the 20 years that ended in the Tekken Telecom bubble is the seeds for for what is happening now were planted and this job is really important and that the profitability stream down the income statement of new tech is very different than 2000 tech let's talk about EVs and not just Tesla yes is it good news for Tesla what's happening in Detroit right now um yes because if there's a strike of course there will be more production shortfalls um you know I think that there's just now the the supply chain has freed up so unfortunately we'll have all kinds of questions about that but you know I don't I don't think it has anything really to do with the strike it has uh everything to do with a consumer preference shift towards better Vehicles electric uh that are falling in price Tesla is leading that uh that price decline simply by passing cost declines onto its uh customers so I think that's what's good for Tesla the complaint we hear is that people can't afford these vehicles that is changing in the UK as you can see Richard sunac is pushing back targets to get rid of all of these in total combustion engines to 2035 from 2030.
are we being unrealistic about this transition no no we do not think so we actually the total cost of ownership now this is in the United States it's a little bit different here but the total cost of ownership of an electric vehicle uh fell below that of a gas-powered vehicle about two to three years ago soon sticker prices insurance yes includes Insurance yes and as I said local differences but yes in the United States that does include insurance and in fact Tesla is so sure that its cars will have fewer accidents and fewer fatalities that it's well willing to provide insurance so yes that does include everything all in you were USC you didn't get a B Laffer called up Robert Kirby a capital group and said just shut up and hire her so you walk into Capital Group which is the land of an r squared and 98 Washington Mutual Fund Investment Company of America everything is completely Diversified out you're the polar extreme the three you almost fell into the Pacific Ocean they were so upset with you so you go out and you say I'm not going tight r squared to SPX I'm going out and do my own thing yes people have prospered off of innovation and Technology how does that continue in America can you be less Diversified and win five years out well you mentioned Capital group and that is where I did start my career and that is where um I saw tremendous research and a long-term time Horizon so really what we're doing with Arc is just going back to the future my initial experience which was in the late 70s when I was in college and we're doing deep research first principles-based white sheet of paper but you're away from on our square like Washington Mutual or the other funds what's your r squared right now uh to be honest we're the correlation of our performance to broad-based benchmarks is very low For Better or Worse what it tells what it tells our clients and prospective clients is we we have a very good diversification strategy our our funds the active weight if you're comparing to msci world or s p or NASDAQ the active weight is less than five percent so really good diversification Strat energy focused on companies that are going to transform the way the world works we look at the broad-based benchmarks and sure there are companies that are sustaining Innovation like an apple but they are not going to transform the way the world works from here our companies are Kathy thank you Kathy Evac invest
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