저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 현재 고인플레이션 이후 경기침체와 디플레이션이 올 것이며, 혁신주(파괴적 혁신 기업)가 가치주 대비 유리하다고 본다. 거시 상황: 미국 CPI 전년비 7.9%(식품 7.9%, 에너지 25%, 기타 6.4%)로 1980년대 이후 최고 수준이며, 임금 상승률 4.5%로 실질임금은 약 3% 감소했다고 언급. 경기 경고 신호: 장단기 금리 역전(10년물이 2년물 아래)은 과거 12~18개월 내 침체를 예고했으며, 향후 1년 내 침체 확률 2/3 이상, 2년 내 98% 이상이라는 자료를 인용. 주택(매매·신규계약·모기지 신청 감소)과 자본지출 둔화도 위험 신호로 지적. 재고·가격: 주택가격은 거래 감소에도 상승 중이라 과열 우려, 중고차 가격은 공급 정상화 후 급락 가능성, 소매 재고 증가로 할인 압력 예상. 소매판매는 물가 반영 시 -0.5%. 디플레이션 전망: 경기 둔화 시 Fed의 금리 인상이 디플레이션 악순환을 촉발할 수 있다고 주장. 캐시 우드는 2021년부터 디플레이션을 예측해 왔으나 시점은 틀렸다고 인정. 순환적 요인(재고·차·에너지 가격 하락)과 구조적 요인(AI 등 혁신에 따른 생산성 향상, 물가 하방압력)을 함께 제시. 투자 전략: 혁신주가 유리하며, 수익성보다 혁신에 투자하는 기업이 경쟁력을 유지한다고 봄. FANG 등 기존 대형주는 파괴당하는 중이고, 소형 혁신주는 과도하게 저평가됐다고 주장. 파괴적 혁신 시장 규모를 75조 달러에서 210조 달러로 전망하며 AI·유전체학 등 S커브 성장 강조. 사모시장 밸류에이션은 상승 중인 반면 공개시장 혁신주는 폭락해 기회라고 봄. 지수 추종 자금 쏠림이 혁신주를 누르고 있다고 진단. 리스크·출연자 평가: 해설자는 ARK 펀드가 변동성이 크고 투자자 이탈이 많았다며 개인투자자가 감내하기 어렵다고 평가. 캐시 우드가 홍보성 편향이 있고 과거 줌·엔비디아·텔레독 매수가 늦었다고 지적. 집중 포트폴리오가 장기적으로 펀드를 이길 수 있다는 개인 견해 제시.
다듬은 글
celebrity investor kathy wood has been warning of an imminent economic recession the yield curve has inverted every time the yield curve has inverted within 12 months to 18 months we have been in a recession and even beyond the yield curve wood has called out several areas of the economy that could signal we are headed for runaway inflation without any increase in wages causing a complete economic collapse unlike any we've seen since the 1970s that's the great fear that we're in the replay of the 70s where we reached double-digit inflation and interest rates so in this video we'll look at kathy wood's thoughts on how the current high inflation rates we're seeing topping 7.9 year-over-year will affect the stock market as well as if she thinks inflation will keep rising or drop we'll also look at why she argues the us economy is starting to slow down without most people even realizing and explain how all of this could lead to a shift in the market from value stocks and toward disruptive innovation stocks causing these companies stock prices to rise so by the end of this video you'll know not only why kathy wood is worried that the fed chairman jerome powell may not see signals of a looming recession and exactly what steps you can take to protect yourself and even make a profit because even when the economy's crashing we need to make attendees so to understand where kathy is coming from we first need to understand what's going on with inflation and i want to make sure we're really clear what we mean by inflation inflation is when prices increase throughout the economy which means consumers like us lose purchasing power we can't buy as much stuff as we used to over the past year according to the cpi or consumer price index compiled by the us government we've seen prices rise 7.9 in food 25 in energy and 6.4 percent everywhere else which comes out to a total inflation rate of 7.9 year-over-year this is a massive increase compared to really anything i've seen in my lifetime in fact the last time we've seen sustained inflation that high was in the 1980s and earlier with recent years seeing inflation in the low single digits now normally you don't want inflation in the 10 or 15 range like we saw in the 80s unless you're selling a commission on wall street because any cash people hold loses value way too quickly now normally the federal reserve seeks to keep inflation around the two percent rate since that's the sweet spot for keeping it stable while protecting jobs and that's exactly what fed chairman jerome powell's been trying to do but clearly that hasn't worked in this past year now i know what you're thinking what does inflation have to do with an economic recession well normally a recession is defined as a period where economic activity is reduced usually with gdp dropping and unemployment rising and usually inflation happens in the opposite of a recession since it generally moves in the opposite direction of economic output in fact the fed's best lever for lowering inflation is to intentionally try to slow down the economy by raising interest rates making it harder to borrow money for economic activity makes sense so far so as interest rates go up inflation goes down as the economy cools off so does inflation at least that's how it's supposed to work and the fed's plan up to this point has followed their traditional playbook with the fed ready to raise rates multiple times to try to rein in inflation but kathy wood has called out several indicators that she thinks everyone is missing that could signal the economy is not running too hot and in need of rising interest rates to slow it down instead she thinks we might be on the brink of a recession and the fed doesn't even realize kathy wood first called out some warning signs that were showing up in the bond market where investors were acting as if the economy wasn't booming and causing inflation and that it was actually slowing down in this case if the fed raises rates while the economy is weak it could end up accidentally kick-starting the next recession we have been flagging the bond market itself is flagging warning signs uh to the fed and one of the biggest warning signs here is that the bond yield of the 10-year treasury bond is now below two-year bonds which in the past has been one of the most reliable indicators that we are headed for a recession there is a better than two-thirds chance of a recession at some point in the next year and a greater than 98 chance of a recession at some point in the next two years when the bond yield curve flips according to the bespoke investment group and kathy what agrees every time the yield curve has inverted within 12 months to 18 months we have been in a recession on top of that we've seen some other issues start to pop up in the economy itself she also called out potential issues in the housing market and in capital spending which could be a warning sign of danger to come in in order to stay out of recession we probably need these two sectors housing and capital spending to continue at a fairly strong pace we're seeing some fraying at the edges and this ties in with an even larger issue which is that every physical good from real estate to retail inventories to cars could be a massively inflated price bubble kathy wood called out how everything in real estate pending home sales new sales mortgage applications everything is down and yet housing prices are up which to her means we may be reaching a point where the price of real estate is just too high for your average buyer and people are simply leaving the market i guess giving up avocado toast isn't enough to buy a house anymore so what happens when supply is high and demand dries up in real estate well prices collapse we can also look at used cars which at one point this was an interesting statute throughout at one point new cars slash used cars were responsible for 50 of inflation with a 65 increase in used car prices from the bottom to the top and while that rise was caused by a lack of supply due to global supply chain issues car companies may have over corrected and produced too many cars to make up for it and soon prices may start dropping rapidly so while the economy looks like it's white hot with these high prices and inventory flying off the shelves or parking lots in reality we may just be seeing all that pent-up demand finally getting met and once things go back to normal we'll be stuck with a lot of inventory and not many buyers especially considering your average wage earner only saw a four and a half percent increase in salary while prices went up 7.9 meaning in real terms everyone got a three percent pay cut this year and according to the university of michigan consumer sentiment about the economy is the lowest it's been since the 0809 crisis not exactly a time when you'd expect people to run out and start spending money unless of course you're putting that money into public which could give you two free stocks when you sign up using the link in the description some investors even worry inflation will keep rising despite the fed raising rates and will fall into the same sort of stag flation the country saw in the 1970s where wages stagnated while people's earning power was slowly whittled away by rising prices that would be absolutely devastating for the average consumer today for over 60 percent of people already live paycheck to paycheck but kathy wood doesn't necessarily think we'll see the same conditions that we saw in the 1970s that's the great fear that we're in the replay of the 70s where we reached double-digit inflation and interest rates we don't think that's the case at all so let's now look at the indicators kathy wood thinks everyone is missing that paints a different picture of the economy one where we won't see inflation and recession but instead deflation where prices actually drop and how this will lead investors to start moving money out of value stocks and into innovation stocks so kathy wood thinks we will soon see both secular forces of deflation as well as cyclical forces affecting the market i'll explain exactly what she means by that in a second but it is important to note that kathy wood has been predicting deflation since 2021 right when we were actually experiencing rampant inflation across the board but she did acknowledge her timing on her inflation prediction was off and she offered some interesting points on why inflation may not just stop but completely reverse as we head into a recession which could counter-intuitively actually be a boon for growth in innovation stocks so according to kathy there are two types of forces pushing us toward deflation first off are the cyclical sources kathy wood's theory is that because of the supply chain issues many companies faced over the past year many businesses just ordered loads and loads of inventory hoping something would get through which is how they survived 2021 but now those supply chains are starting to return to normal and the massive inventories are starting to pile up faster than there's demand for them sales from retail stores are already starting to slow with sales down 0.5 percent if you account for inflation while inventories are rising this means companies will need to start dropping prices to move product similarly the car market is dropping and we're seeing the price of oil start to lower even amid a global conflict involving one of the world's largest oil producers so with retail prices dropping car prices dropping energy prices dropping those are all cyclical forces that could drive deflation but kathy wood also thinks there's another even more powerful deflationary force one which is much much more persistent and that is the secular deflationary effect of innovation now that might seem counterintuitive why would innovation drive prices down after all iphones seem to get more and more expensive every year but if you think about it in terms of a single product if i buy a phone this year it will be worth less next year and less the year after that because new innovation and phone technology makes it less desirable over time innovation as a whole also has this effect as companies start to deploy ai to assist their workers and their jobs those workers can produce more output for the same pay and as the gap between worker productivity and worker wages gets larger that acts as a downward force on the prices of goods and services so amid a slowing economy if the federal reserve's decides to fight current inflation by raising interest rates it may end up slowing the economy enough to accidentally kick-start a deflationary spiral which honestly would not be great but we want to be smart investors and make money no matter which way the economy is going so what stocks does kathy wood think will perform well if her predictions come true well if you know kathy wood you can probably guess where this is going technology and innovation stocks that are willing to sacrifice short-term profits to focus on innovation areas and cut costs will remain competitive as they can increase their productivity fast enough to outpace deflation meanwhile short-term oriented risk-averse shareholders may force companies to focus on buybacks and short-term earnings boosts at the expense of investing in innovation ultimately causing them to fall behind in kathy wood's eyes and she calls out several technology trends that will lead the way in not just remaining competitive but thriving over the next few years and it might not actually be who you think it is kathy wood is actually not a huge believer in the fang stocks like meta apple and google have dominated technology over the past decade instead she says some of these former disruptors are now being disrupted themselves by smaller innovation stocks and that those same smaller stocks have been beaten down even more by the market than the nasdaq in general she said quote our technology stocks are way undervalued and we're running a deep value portfolio let me tell you she's not just bullish on these stocks she's extremely bullish we have watched our research point to an expansion in the market cap opportunity associated with disruptive innovation from 75 trillion dollars to 210 trillion dollars that is 210 trillion dollars with a t as in 210 000 billion dollars now that seems like a high valuation but kathy backs it up with the sigmoidal theory of business which basically says that innovation and technology adoption follows an s-curve where adoption starts slowly then takes off exponentially before leveling out but with multiple technologies at play here we will see an s-curve in the adoption of a.i which could in turn lead to an s-curve in the adoption of genomics which could then feed into the next s-curve so if kathy's right we'll see an exponential increase in these companies values and we can even look to the private markets for a peak at what the future may hold for these stock valuations the valuations of the stocks in the public equity markets have been crushed in the last year but if you look at the private markets those valuations have not been crushed if anything we've seen an escalation so maybe the public markets are taking a short-term mindset and panicking based on inflation numbers leading them to flee from true innovation stocks and into value plays like utilities and energy meanwhile the private markets that need to take a long-term view are paying more than ever for innovation and growth when times are hard for big funds they try to match their performance to the indexes like the s p 500 but kathy wood now thinks that today is the absolutely worst time to do that since by focusing on high conviction positions she can set herself up for when the market does take off so should we all be dumping money into innovation stocks or arcs fund while i do think kathy is right that innovation stocks in the public markets are being pushed down by big funds fleeing to the indexes i personally would not invest all my money in arc invest first off kathy wood herself points out that disruptive innovation is inherently controversial and tends to be a very vulnerable strategy and i don't think most people have the stomach for that just look at how many people left her fund as soon as it stopped going up in a straight line basically selling at the bottom in january secondly kathy is obviously not an unbiased presenter she wants more investors in ark so she's going to argue for why it's frankly terrible performance across all of 2021 is just a temporary anomaly and lastly i think kathy wood tends to be a little bit behind smaller investors who can get in and out of positions a little more nimbly than her she was pretty late on buying zoom nvidia and teledoc and i do believe a smaller concentrated portfolio like the one i run can outperform her fund in the long term i'm not saying she's not a good investor or that i'm better than her in some way it's just harder to do well when the numbers get big and when you entering and exiting positions literally moves the market out from under you but that's just my takeaway and i'm curious what you think of kathy's predictions don't forget to like and subscribe and i'll see you next time
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