저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 베리의 미국 증시 공매도 베팅을 소개하며 패시브 투자 확산에 따른 가격발견 왜곡과 상위 10개 종목 집중 리스크를 설명한다. 그러나 시장 타이밍은 비효율적이므로 장기적으로 꾸준히 분산 투자하는 것이 낫다고 결론짓는다. 영상 제작자는 패시브 지수 펀드에 월급의 약 15%를 투자하고 저평가 종목을 추가 매수하겠다고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
well it's finally happened Michael bu is back and he just made a big bet against the US Stock Market if you don't know who he is Michael bu was one of the few investors who predicted the housing bubble before the whole Market collapsed in 2008 and he ultimately ended up profiting over $100 million personally and making over $700 million for his investors off of that trade so if you've been watching the markets at all in recent years you've seen the continued rise in indexes like the S&P 500 which has hit a new alltime High 50 separate times in 2024 so a lot of investors are thinking this can't keep going up forever right well they're not alone with many famous investors either asking the same question or even selling huge amounts of their stock positions and Michael Burr in particular is interesting since he's correctly called every last major stock market crash he shorted the dot bubble in the early 2000s he famously predicted and profited from the subprime mortgage crash that kickstarted the Great Recession he made a fortune shorting Kathy Wood's Arc Innovation ETF during the tech crash in 2021 love him or hate him this guy has made a lot of money off of his Market predictions but after deleting his Twitter in 2023 bur has gone silent on the markets at least publicly but we can get an indirect look into what bu is thinking by looking into the SEC filings from his fund Scion Asset Management so let's see what stocks he's been buying and selling and see if you can spot the pattern sales the real real Inc sale American corporate insc okay interesting buy Alibaba buy buo Inc buy jd.com and he had a bunch of puts remember these reports aren't in real time since these are bur's trades from last quarter but what do all these stocks have in common well they are all of them Chinese stocks China on the Chinese economy the Chinese economy and the sales American stocks reality is inflation remains High 47 growing concern that inflation could actually take you job is likely not done okay wait wait wait wait that doesn't necessarily mean that bur thinks that American stocks are overvalued maybe he just really likes Chinese stocks maybe except for before bur deleted his Twitter he left us with the exact warning signs to look for before the next stock market crash and it looks like he's acting on those signs both with his sales of US Stocks as well as his strategy of buying and hedging his Chinese bets so let's look at what bur might be seeing in the market and more importantly what you can do to protect yourself back in 2019 bur issued a warning about a bubble brewing in the ETF Market saying that passive investing was artificially inflating the values of stocks just like cdos had inflated the subprime mortgage bubble in 2008 but investors at the time mostly dismissed him with Elon Musk comparing him to a broken clock and Twitter users saying bur had predicted six of the last zero stock crashes even Tom Nash got in on the phone but after a crash caused by the pandemic in 2020 followed by an even faster rise in stock prices it started to look less like bu was wrong and more like bu was just too early it wouldn't be the first time the housing market didn't crash until 2008 but bur was predicting that crash way back in 2005 and now 5 years later there's something happening in the US Stock Market that is causing bur to sell his us positions and it all centers around this idea of passive investing okay so passive investing there's really only two ways to do it you can buy an index fund or you can buy an exchange traded fund or ETF for short if a single stock is like an ingredient in your portfolio an index fund is like a grocery basket that contains all the ingredients you need to cook a recipe for the entire Market you buy every ingredient or in this case a little piece of every stock in the market that the index tracks so for example if you're tracking the S&P 500 you could get little pieces of the 500 biggest companies in the US ETFs or exchange traded funds are similar but they're like ready-made frozen meals they give you a bunch of stocks in one purchase but unlike index funds you can buy and sell ETFs throughout the day so both index funds and ETFs make it easy to invest without picking individual stocks and common wisdom has been that slowly investing in ETFs and index funds over time is the best way for most in investors to grow their money you said in the 1996 annual report that most investors will find that the best way to own Common Stocks is in an index fund so I would pick a broad index but I wouldn't toss a chunk in at any one time I would do it over a period of time and the idea of passive investing makes sense the average active Trader will end up with average results but they also have to pay extra fees for trading or management so by investing in every single stock in the market through something like an index fund you can get the same average returns but without all those extra costs this style of investing really took off in 1976 when John Bogle introduced the first Index Fund for Vanguard but it has absolutely exploded in popularity recently since the 1970s the percent of adults who are invested in stocks in general has steadily increased here's an article the New York Times published in 1975 reporting that just 25.2 million people own stock at the time but today that number is closer to 61% of Americans or over 230 million people so more investors than ever are jumping into the stock market and the amount of them investing passively is also growing and it's this combination that is making Michael bre so worried here's a chart of the amount of money invested with active funds like hedge funds or mutual funds over time and here's a chart of the amount of money being passively invested so you see that point on the top right passive investing has grown in popularity so quickly that for the first time in history passive investing has surpassed every active investment in the market combined and this has more than just Michael bu worried if the market is mostly owned by people who don't care about the specifics of the stocks they buy what effect does that have on market prices well here's what Charlie Munger Warren Buffett's right-hand man has to say about index funds in that same clip from earlier Common Stocks could become so high priced that if you bought index funds you wouldn't expect to do very well I didn't think I'd live long enough to think that was likely to happen but now I think that may happen so this clip really got my attention like this guy isn't like Michael bur Charlie merer is one of the most conservative investors out there so I dug deeper into why these big investors are so worried and the big thing that comes up is something called price Discovery so if you think of a stock let's say apple the price of the stock should be whatever the market on average is willing to pay for it but this concept of price turns out to be a very fickle thing in the stock market so price Discovery imagine you're at an auction and someone is selling a rare baseball card the card's price isn't set by the seller it's decided by how much people are willing to pay for it some bid low others bid high and the final price reflects what the group thinks the card is worth and for stocks this happens every second the market is open buyers and sellers look at things like company profits new products or the economy to decide what a stock is worth and this back and forth is what keeps stock prices tied to their real value based on what everyone knows wisdom of the crowd but now with passive investing dominating the market this price Discovery process could get broken when you buy an index fund or an ETF you're not checking if every single stock is worth the price you're just buying the whole basket so if a stock is part of that basket people are willing to buy it simply because it's in there not because it's necessarily a good investment for example Apple stock might be worth $200 based on its business but if billions flow into funds that include Apple its price could rise to $250 just because people are buying the basket and that extra $50 it would be artificial demand not tied to the Stock's real value so okay maybe passive investing is pushing prices up but passive investing has existed for a while so we need to look at what has spooked bur into selling now figure out which Industries could be the hardest hit if a bubble bursts and most importantly how regular investors like us can protect ourselves so why after 5 years is bur selling now well a lot of investors are uneasy about how much the stock market has grown I mean look at a chart of the S&P 500 it's up nearly 90% over the past 5 years but that big growth hides a bigger problem which has only gotten worse in the last 12 months concentration risk so here's the official definition of concentration risk when you're portfolio is too focused on one type of investment you can lose a bunch of money if that one investment goes down it's like a group project in school where just one or two people are doing all the work so if those people stop working the whole project can fall apart that's what's happening right now in the S&P 500 a huge chunk of the S&P 500's growth is coming from just a handful of big tech companies Apple Microsoft Amazon Nvidia according to Goldman Sachs the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 now make up a third of the index's value that's even more concentrated than during the bubble of the 2000s so now if those few companies run into trouble it could drag down the entire S&P 500 even if the other 490 companies are doing fine so how can a normal investor avoid that risk well the best tool to counteract concentration is diversification spreading your money out across many types of Investments this way if one area struggles the other might hold steady so let's look at some options that people talk about to diversify so first maybe we can invest in crypto like bitco coin or ethereum people often talk about these Investments as a store of value or a hedge against inflation and inflation is definitely hitting people's wallets even after some Cooling in the economy but here's the catch if we look at the correlation between ethereum Bitcoin and stocks we can see that they've become more connected over time so while it's exciting and volatile when stocks drop crypto usually drops too okay so maybe real estate well it can offer some protection but over the years the real estate market has started to move more and more in sync with the stock market making it less of a safety net during crashes so okay let's leave the US and look at Chinese stocks where Buri has been putting his money specifically in Chinese tech stocks so China's government has recently been pumping huge amounts of stimulus money into their economy nicknamed the Chinese stimulus bazooka because they're basically saying we just want growth at all costs this has some Echoes of the US stimulus from the early 2020s which fueled a massive stock market Market rally especially in Tech along with a bunch of inflation so bur may feel that US tech stocks already had their pump cycle and now he's moving on to China as they start to follow the same path but taking everything together if there really is a passive investing bubble in the market let's look at what regular investors can do right now to protect themselves so let's look at this from first principles if bur is right and a bubble is getting ready to burst we only have a few options available option one we could sell our stocks and go into Cash but that's probably the worst option overall if there is a big market crash especially if a recession comes with it the FED is probably going to do something generally in a recession the FED will lower interest rates to stimulate the economy but when interest rates are lowered that increases the amount of money flowing through the system which causes higher inflation so anyone who goes to Pure cash would see their money very quickly get whittel away by Rising inflation I know I've seen the effects of inflation every week when I go to grocery shopping and when inflation is high staying invested in the stock market is one of the best ways to avoid losing money to inflation so option number two we could try to time the market selling out before a potential crash and then buying back in at the bottom so Charles Schwab actually ran a study about this sort of strategy comparing four investing Styles over 20 years they had four people person a b and c who each invested once per year for 20 years straight person a perfectly timed the market by buying at the bottom each year person B just invested consistently on the same day each year person C had horrible Market timing and bought at the peak of the market every year and person D just stayed in cash and bonds so Charles Schwab simulated the results of each strategy over 20 years and the results were pretty clear staying in cash was by far the worst but the left side was more surprising so if you had perfect Market timing you only made yourself around 8% more than just investing consistently over 20 years while bad Market timing cost you closer to 12% and this is a simplified version of what many in-depth Studies have shown the potential win from timing a market crash successfully isn't worth the risk of timing it badly you lose more than you win and you lose more often trying to time it so your best bet is just to invest consistently but let's look at option three which is what I will be doing in the case of a market crash first off I probably won't be buying Chinese tech stocks because one there aren't as good regulatory protections for Western investors in China and two unless you have Michael bur's perfect timing buying Chinese stocks is actually very correlated with buying US Stocks so it doesn't protect you in a crash if US Stocks drop these stocks will probably drop too and they're more risky due to different regulations instead what I am going to be doing is a mix of putting around 15% of my income into a passive broad market index fund which has consistently been shown to be the best way to retire with money now as as long as I don't need to pull any of that money out in the next 5 years investing over a long time Horizon helps reduce that concentration risk in these big tech stocks and second I'll continue to buy undervalued stocks with a 5 to 10e time Horizon with any extra funds that can scrape together because consistently putting more money into the market is the best way to build wealth and time in the market beats timing the market but then there's the other case where bur is wrong and there is no bubble well in that case consistently putting money into the market also works like in The Last 5 Years people who stayed invested in the market made far more money than anyone who sold back in 2019 now it is interesting what bu is seeing in the Chinese economy that is making him put those new Hedges against his Chinese stocks but that'll have to be the next video my plan for now is to keep it stable and keep it invested a broken clock is right twice a day still more consistent than my YouTube schedule
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