저자: WarrenBuffett/CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 버핏과 멍거는 항공주는 투자 대상으로 매력이 없다며 장기적으로도 피하는 입장을 보였다. 항공 산업의 구조적 문제: 좌석당 추가 원가는 낮고 고정비는 큰 구조라 마지막 좌석을 낮은 가격에 팔고 싶은 유혹이 커서 경쟁이 과열되기 쉽다. 노동·자본 집약적이며 본질적으로 상품(commodity)형 사업이다. 투자자 손실 이력: 항공 산업은 라이트 형제 이후 100년 넘게 투자자에게 '죽음의 덫'이었다. 많은 기업이 파산을 반복했다. 버크셔의 실제 경험: US Air 투자에서 순자산이 약 15억 달러에서 1억 달러 수준으로 녹아내렸고, 현금도 계속 소진되는 고통스러운 경험을 했다. 이후 보통주 대신 전환권이 붙은 대출을 실행했고, 스티브 울프 경영진 영입 등으로 결과적으로 이익을 봤지만 이는 운이 따른 결과라고 평가했다. US Air는 두 차례 파산했다. 미래 전망: 항공사가 소수로 재편되고 규제가 없으면 좋은 사업이 될 수 있지만 현재도 그 단계인지 확신하지 못한다. 빌 밀러 제안에 대해서는 '어려운 것 더미(too hard pile)'에 넣는다고 답했다. 과거 철도 산업은 통합 후 좋은 사업이 되었는데 버크셔가 늦게 들어가 기회를 놓쳤다는 회고도 있다. 출연자 전망: 버핏과 멍거 모두 항공주 보통주는 매수하지 않겠다는 입장이며, 항공 산업 전반에 대해 회의적이다. 다만 항공사에 대출 형태로 투자하는 것은 여전히 고려할 수 있다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
uh Charlie do you have anything to say on either the airlines or the Japanese Market well the airline experience was very unpleasant for us the net worth just melted was like a billion and a half and it just went 100 million 100 million 100 million and finally the cash is running down it is a very unpleasant experience and we try and learn from those experience but we're very slow Learners you see you do see certain industries uh where once they get down to very a very few companies do extremely well and and you see other Industries uh uh where uh even when they get to be two of them they don't do that that well I mean you can take Coke and Pepsi in the United States I mean you know they're the only two colas that people can name and 50% or sve the soft drinks are colas but but if you go into a supermarket on the weekend you will uh see them pricing their product at ridiculously low prices and and competing very vigorously so it it it's very it's it's very industry specific the airline industry you know had has this situation where they have uh uh very very very low uh incremental cost per seat you know with enormous fixed costs and the temptation to sell that last seat uh at a very low price is very high and it's very and sometimes it can be very difficult to distinguish between the last seat and other seats so it's it's a labor intensive Capital intensive largely commodity type business and it's been as Bill Bill Miller points out in that question it's been you know a death trap for investors ever since Orville took off I mean as I've said if there had been a capitalist at Kittyhawk he should have shot down orille and that us all a favor but they uh but having neglected to do that investors have poured money in to airline companies and aircraft manufacturing companies now for a 100 years plus with terrible results and if it ever gets down to where there's one Airline and there's no regulation it will be a wonderful business and then the question is whether having gotten down now through a lot of bankruptcies uh to a relatively few that are doing high percentage of the seat miles whether it's a good business yet uh uh I don't know the answer to but I'm skeptical Charlie well the last time we were presented with a similar opportunity was when the railroads did exactly what Bill Miller suggests the railroads got down and Consolidated and got better control of their labor costs and it turned into a wonderful business and what did we do we missed it and we stumbled in very late to the party right right so we've proven ourselves to be a slow learners in this field and it's it's conceivable isn't it that Bill Miller is right in what He suggests which way are you about it goes into my too hard pile mine too but but he could be right yeah he sure he could and it'll be fun to watch but we uh we like we like things we have stronger feelings about that um um we do not think that uh things will change dramatically and um well with SE candy you know this we've got the even there you know the real profitability is limited to the West Coast but but uh we do not see some competitor coming along and taking away business you you really couldn't create another Railroad and I hope not and you get and you can create another airline very easily and you have people like what we don't like about it and people love doing it it's it's exciting to people and you can sell the idea I I've had probably a dozen proposals over the last 25 or 30 years from people that that want to get into the airline business one way or and a number of them have it's sexy for some reason I mean it it you know if if you go to the office of some Mr Big CEO and say I want to talk to you about this new airplane you get in the door you know I mean if you want to talk to them about hauling coal or something it's a little different so it it is a business that attracts people and you can go out and raise money for a new Airline uh and uh the record is it's really been something I don't know how many bankruptcies there have been in the airline field but it's it's an enormous number and of course some have done it more than once we bought US Air I bought that I was at gatz with with the uh at kadney and he explained to me how wonderful the airline was he he was a good guy incidentally and I wrote a check and and by the time the check was cashed they were they were having troubles I mean did not take long no and then they went bankrupt twice we we were very lucky on we actually made quite a bit of money on it as it turned out because there was a little blip at one point but I think it went bankrupt twice after we bought it and Charlie and I were on the board and we would look at these projections you know and they were just ridiculous I mean they never came true did they Charli no no no it was we were very popular because we actually pointed that out a few times what was the other question on Charlie uh buying a Airlines oh I yeah I always repress everything on airlines I don't want to we never we've never bought an airline common stock that that I can remember so what we did was we lent money to us a uh for a 10-year period and we had a conversion privilege there it looked like it it was a terrible mistake I made the mistake but it we got bailed out uh but we we never made the determination when we bought our stock US Air was selling at $50 a share or there about the common and we didn't have an interest in buying US Air at 50 or 40 or 30 or 20 uh and we got a chance to is things went along all the way down to four uh and we never bought it uh and we never bought American or United or Delta or any other Airline it is not a business that intrigues us we did think it was intriguing to u to lend money to them with a conversion privilege and it's worked out now as it uh because we got lucky and because Steve wolf came along and and and uh really rescued the company from right at at the brink of bankruptcy uh but we're unlikely to be in Airlines although again we wouldn't mind lending money uh to a lot of businesses that we wouldn't buy common equity in I mean that that that could happen again in various Industries including the airline industry
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