Jeremy Siegel: The Truth About Interest Rates and AI

요약 보기

S&P500이 10주 연속 상승하며 지정학·유가 리스크에도 랠리 지속. 칩 실적과 Fed의 유연한 유동성(통화량 증가)이 AI 랠리 연료. 금리 인하는 당분간 어려워 보이며 미국채 금리가 Fed 방향을 결정할 수 있다고 봄. SpaceX 상장 이벤트에 주목. 유가 100달러 미만·중국 수입 감소 등 변수 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. The stock market is currently on a diabolical quest to keep rising even as global chaos and $100 oil prices cry out for a catastrophic day of reckoning . Despite constant alarmism about a restrictive policy, the Federal Reserve has been dangerously flexible, flooding the market with the liquidity needed to continue fueling the AI ​​revolution.

02. Are you still...? I think you were talking about inflation. That's never a good thing. And you're talking about guys who are rising. And you talk about Iran and oil prices and all that stuff. And that made you doubt. Does it surprise you that the S&P had, until recently , 10 consecutive weeks of upward momentum?

03. Did it make you think that the day of reckoning was approaching, or that it was going to continue like this? Well, Joe, I don't think anyone was surprised. I mean, if I had told everyone, I mean, if I had even told Tom Lee, uh, you know, three months ago, you know, that oil would be between 90 and 100, that the rally would have been closed, uh, there wasn't much prospect there, uh, you know, would the S&P have gone up 10 or 15%?

04. The response was, you know, hey, that's crazy. However, what has happened is that there are many alternative solutions, many failures. Uh, you know, China stopped importing, uh, 5 million barrels a day, uh, we don't know if we're up against the wall where suddenly people say, oh, the fall is over and that's why, you know, the market has cheered up if we're close.

05. I mean, this, you know , again, we all know that, you know, Trump has said that we're close many times before, but it was, you know, I thought the war looked like it was going to start again, uh, a couple of days ago, they both stopped. Well, perhaps we do have a beginning there, which is certainly very, very optimistic.

06. I think that also, as you mentioned just before the break, I think SpaceX is going to occupy, obviously , this week's meeting, but next week's. Oh. I don't remember any. I mean, you have to go back years, if not decades, to find something that will be more interesting and impactful to me than what he's going to say.

07. I know that if it were me, I think I would say, you know, Mr. President, on second thought, you know what I mean? It's too late to back down. I don't think I envy what he has to do. I wonder what you attribute the upward movement to, despite everything, Jim. And you know, I know you've read, you know, memoirs of a stockbroker.

08. The job of the market is to do this and try to climb higher with the fewest people who believe it. So I think Livermore called it the diabolical search that the market does all the time. But I usually find a couple of things that you later discover were good. Is the AI still good? Are the profits still strong?

09. I think there were a number of things, and firstly, oil didn't go above 100, which is certainly manageable, and of course very manageable for the US, which is an exporter there. Let's be honest, you all also had extraordinary profits from chips that no one could have imagined. I mean , a turning point was when Intel said that their old, totally depreciated chips actually had value when in reality a large part of the market was worried that they were undervaluing those chips.

10. I mean, that was a big change , we said that too, and then we've had a much more flexible monetary policy. As you know, I look at the money supply and in the last 3 or 4 months we've had an increase, which means there's liquidity that can continue with the AI ​​revolution. At this point, I have said that no one would seriously hold that against the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Walsh.

11. Well, we need to start saying it. But no one would seriously hold it against Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh if he didn't do, you know, what President Trump obviously wants so badly, which is lower interest rates. Because things have changed, and the bond market itself can dictate what the Federal Reserve is likely to do.

12. And it certainly doesn't look like there will be interest rate cuts anytime soon. I mean that tenure in office is the ultimate arbiter. You're absolutely right . But there has even been a change in President Trump's tone in the last month or two, from when he was saying, " We definitely have to lower the rates," to now saying, "Hey, don't raise them ." I believe his last statement was : "I don't think we should raise interest rates ." "Perhaps we could leave them as they are." And it's clear that he's not going to raise or lower interest rates next week , but what is he planning?

13. I mean, are you going to change the communications? Are you going to eliminate the dot diagrams? Well, I mean , he's going to announce a new agenda. He did n't really give us many clues about himself. He did not give any speeches before the period of silence we are in right now. So, actually, it's a big revelation.

14. If you like, I'll be watching the Federal Reserve's announcement next Wednesday . Yes, we had Loretta Messer on yesterday and she said there's no question that as rates rise, and you know the employment numbers, the Federal Reserve isn't being tight right now. If anything, it is said that the Federal Reserve is even too flexible, perhaps even too accommodating now for market conditions.

15. Yes. I mean, in my opinion, especially when I look at the amount of credit that's currently being offered in the market, we take a look at the market and it doesn't seem like there's a demand for capital, you know, you see, you look at the hype surrounding SpaceX and everything else, you know, we...