저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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고용지표가 예상보다 강해 연준 금리인하 기대가 사라졌고, 이는 강세장의 핵심 지지 요인 상실이다. SpaceX IPO는 과열 개장 후 급락 위험이 있고, 애플 하락과 구글·하이퍼스케일러의 대규모 주식 발행이 시장 자금을 빨아들일 수 있다. 따라서 당분간 강세 베팅에 소극적이며 더 나은 매수 시점을 기다리라고 조언한다. 서비스나우는 비싸다며 미온적 입장.
다듬은 글
The bull market's biggest bullish prop has been destroyed now that rate cuts are off the table and surging oil prices have finally broken the back of the American underclass. Jim Cramer warns investors should prepare for a sickening decline following the SpaceX IPO as the market risks running out of money to support Elon Musk's fraught and overhyped opening.
Well, first, the stronger than expected employment report on Friday was awful for the bulls. Because the bulls desperately need one or two rate cuts this year to keep this market going higher. And you don't get rate cuts when the labor market's this solid. I always tell you that the nonfarm payroll report is the single most important piece of data we get from the government.
And that's because it has an impact on the Federal Reserve. On Friday, we got a surprisingly strong employment figure, so much stronger than I was looking for. So strong that I think you could argue that we might actually need a rate hike to cool the economy, not a rate cut to turn the temperature up.
Now, I am a huge believer in the late Marty Zweig's notion that you can't fight the Fed. When the Fed is raising rates, as I think they may have to, and you have to be bullish, well, you're going to get steamrolled. That's where we are now. When the Fed's cutting rates, that's your green light to buy.
That's where we were before last Friday. So blindly, but it's made me a lot of money over the years. So, if rate cuts are now off the table, well, you have to get less bullish. Axiomatic, people. Axiomatic. Part of my enthusiasm for this market came from the fact that Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chief, clearly wants to cut rates.
I love Jay Powell, responsible, smart, always doing his best in extremely trying circumstances. But I'm not going to complain when we got a replacement who wants the juicy economy since the stock price up. Lots of people are all excited about the stock market and their home prices going up, too. But let's not forget, please, there's a huge percentage of people who know nothing about owning stocks or homes and are struggling to make ends meet.
Many were hurting from inflation including tariff hangover price increases as well as less healthcare cost protection and a gratuitous cutback in food stamps. The boosting oil prices though was the straw that broke the under classes back. It's too much to ask for them to bear these changes. I thought that a rate cut could be the beginning of concerted effort to help these people.
We know that when management at Walmart, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Five Below all talked about the stretch consumer. Then them's them's the facts, right? I mean you can't dispute them. But there's also no disputing the labor report which showed that jobs are incredibly easy to get and with all the inflation in the system a rate cut is just not tenable.
My biggest bullish prop is gone at least for now. It's just gone. Second, we have this gigantic IPO coming from Elon Musk's SpaceX and it's reportedly over subscribed meaning it's unlikely to bomb. But what happens if it opens way too high? Suddenly because there's not enough stock to go around and then we watch a sickening decline at that moment.
Now this is a scenario that could very very well happen. We keep hearing about how the stock is well pri- well placed, right? Big chunk of it's with retail. But what if there are a host of market orders that come in over the transom and there's no stock to match the buyers? Well that could put these in the stock of SpaceX to ridiculously high levels.
And that could be very bad. It would color things very negatively maybe for some time. I don't think today's rally nullifies the possibility that something that could be very tough to watch. If that happens there'll be a lot of negative press about the deal and it would spoil the bullish plot or at least what's left of it.
Third change, ooh that pull back in the stock of Apple today. Of the big cap stocks Apple have been the cleanest story. Didn't have to spend big on artificial intelligence. They have Alphabet to do it for them and they're being paid for doing so because they have such an outstanding and deserved user base.
When you have 2.5 billion device out there there's a much sought after audience, right? In the scrum that is perplexity, claw, Gemini, grok, chat to be meta AI, you can cement your relevancy by making a deal with Apple. And that's why Google paid them to be their search function. We don't know the terms of the AI deal, but I think that Apple did fabulously and the whole package now includes Gemini as Siri.
I think the idea that Apple's I mean I say as Siri, what I mean is that it's Siri's gotten much smarter. How about that? Apple is is now is it done? And there are no more improvements? That's what I kept hearing say it's done. Well, that's just plain stupid. It's going to get better and better. No one's going to switch from this phone because they were disappointed by today's worldwide developers conference except for the hedge fund guys and gals who watched the show our network has said, "Oh, it's really bad." I mean it wasn't even a tradeable event, although people tried to trade it and the traders are the losers, not Apple.
That's it. Apple's a leader, maybe the leader, and I don't want to lose the leader of this stock market. We've lost all the other mega cap stocks now. Forgive me for wanting one of them to keep winning because I do think Apple could have gone higher on the same info we got today. I wanted it to open down and then rally.
Uh finally, there's the equity issuance from Google last week. I didn't see it coming. You didn't see it either. It was brilliant if you worked at Google. Great if you did put place at Goldman Sachs. Uh you now have the money to build more profitless data centers to keep your cloud customers from going to another competitor and that's what they're going to do.
It's bad for everyone else though, especially shareholders of meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. The ease with which Google raised the cash was incredible. Goldman Sachs did a tremendous job, but if there's more equity issuance from the other companies I just mentioned, especially before the SpaceX IPO, then will the SpaceX deal be as well received?
Won't maybe some of these people who want the stock cut it back? Could the next deal be the deal too far? And the market literally runs out of money as I've been saying for months. Remember, any large account that gets a lot of stock is going to buy more once it starts trading. That's kind of the the official custom.
Who knows what will that will mean to the stock itself. Who knows how many articles and news reports there'll be about how stupid people are buying it because it doesn't make any money. Now, I insult injury, I don't know. Apple tonight OpenAI announced that it filed its S-1. So, that one's now coming right down the pike.
I was hoping there'd be a little bit of a respite there. Uh-uh, not for the weary. And how about SpaceX? Really? Okay, I am bullish on that. I think you can buy some and put it away for your grandchildren, not with market orders and wait. Don't buy the opening. It could take a very long time for some of these projects to come to fruition, obviously.
Maybe your entire lifetime. Personally, I think that's too long a time horizon, but if you're thinking in terms of future generations, I'm not going to squabble with you. Be my guest. That said, this deal is a bit fraught. We don't know what's going to happen in the next 4 days, and that can change a lot of things.
We now have the snapback from last week. I don't know what could propel us higher still. I do know that a lot of things can go awry, though. So, rate cuts from the Fed are likely off the table. The SpaceX deal will suck money from the rest of the market. More hyperscaler equity offerings could do the same thing.
And now Apple's getting its clock cleaned, too? That's more negativity than I can handle. Sure, maybe we run the gauntlet go four for four positive. And that could make the market really roar. But, the bottom line here is I just don't see it that way. I think the Fed's more important than anything and it's now going the wrong way.
I was hoping for a reversal upward, not downward in Apple. I wanted to get any surprise equity deal over with before the big SpaceX deal. And I fear an insane opening for SpaceX IPO followed by a run as to climb will leave a real bad taste in everybody's mouth. So, I am not that bullish. My bullishness can wait.
I think you will get a better time to buy than right now. Simple as that. Hey, why don't we go to Angel or Angel in California? Angel. Yes, sir. Good day. Boo-ya, Jim. Thank you, sir, for having me on the show. And I'm glad you called. How can I help? Well, uh out of genius move, I ended up buying Cerebrus uh when it first came out.
Mhm. Originally, I thought the stock was coming out of 170, 180. Uh when I went to finalize this close, it was at 370. Right. And it has not been anywhere near that since then. So, I'm wondering if this stock is a dead stock. Should I get rid of it? Uh today's the fastest it's been. Frankly, I think it it went up 36 points, so it gave you a nice bounce back.
I cut it in half, then if it goes up any more, I get rid of the rest. This was a botched deal. This is what I most fear, okay? They obviously misallocated. They didn't understand that the stock could open very big. They picked everybody off, and everyone who bought this stock in the last 2 weeks is underwater.
And that's precisely actually with 3 weeks. That's precisely what I don't want to have happen. And I tell you, I've done these kinds of deals. I priced them. I've been in them, and it was done poorly. And now I just heard Angel talk about how he did, and there are hundreds of thousands of people like him and her.
You know, let me just tell you something. I fear that's what's going to happen this week. And it's going to hurt you. And I'm trying to protect you. So, I'm trying to do is protect you. Let's go to CJ in Texas, please. CJ. Hey, Jim. Thank you for taking my call. Absolutely. I am a new member of of the club, and I watch your show, and I really thank you for the education we receive.
And I'm a small investor, but I'm a very active investor. Remember, we're all small investors, and I thank you for the kind words. Let's go to work. Okay. So, my question relates to ServiceNow, NOW. And I've had it for 5 months investing in what I thought was a growth company that might grow a little faster than it has.
And then the price plummeted. So, I hear mixed projections about the future of holding Service Now, and it seems to be mostly a buy, but I'm interested in your thoughts. Okay, well, look, it's expensive. That's the problem, and it's one of these companies that has a lot of software as a service, but it's been pivoting rather rapidly.
I've been watching this the stock, and I have been I have mixed feelings about it, but of the stocks that are in the enterprise software business, I think it's better than most. Is that a lukewarm endorsement? I guess so. But then again, I'm not that bullish to begin with. Okay. Sometimes your bullishness has to wait.
I want to be bullish. It always feels good, but I'm not going to do that at your expense. It's not to me it's not the time to buy. Maybe it goes up, that'd be terrific. But to me, it's not the time to buy. All right. Now, all my money tonight will be
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