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Uh so this is a huge recession and again this is not the pain before the gain. This is just the pain before more pain because it's not going to work right doing that. So in the meantime I think you fade this bare market rally uh you buy the dip in gold even more so in the mining stocks. You sell the dollar you keep moving assets out of the US.
I think the day of reckoning here is close at hand because all of those trends continued on Monday night. In fact, gold hit a new all-time record high. It was within $10 of 3500. That's how much gold had gone up. It was above $3,490. Now, you know, you may expect some profit taking at a round number like that.
We were almost halfway between 3,000 and 4,000. And we had only just breached 3,000 like weeks ago. And now we're almost halfway to 4,000. But the dollar was getting killed. The euro was above 115. There was a 97 handle on the dollar index. Uh stock futures were selling off. Uh bonds were under pressure.
Uh they didn't make new lows, but they were on their way. And and so I think looking at what was happening in the markets, the advisors to Donald Trump uh got to him and said, "We need to do some damage control. You need to walk back that uh truth social post." And so on Tuesday morning, early in the morning, Donald Trump said, you know, hey, of course I'm not going to fire Trump.
uh Pal, you know, he's going to be there until the end of his term or I'm, you know, I'm not going to do anything uh with Pal and the market had a huge rally on that. And, you know, it's hard for me to believe with all of the markets savvy people that are in the Trump administration. A lot of people have come, you know, from Wall Street, right, that are there, uh, and they know that the markets are going to move big on comments that come out of the White House, even though nothing actually happens, right?
Just somebody saying something, not actually doing anything, but just a a a post on Truth Social can cause massive swings in the stock markets, in the currency markets, in the crypto market. I'm sure there are people in the Trump administration that are trading off of this. Uh I mean, you know, I mean, how could they not be?
uh given the the size of the moves and the fact that you know there's no actual news. I don't even know if it's insider trading because there's nothing actually happening. These are just comments that really don't mean anything. And in fact, I think the comments are specifically designed to impact the market.
I think the Donald Trump's comment about PAL was, "Oh my god, the market's getting killed. I need to turn it around. So, let me let me reassure the markets that, you know, there's still Fed independence because that was what people were worried about that, oh, this means that we're not going to have an independent Fed.
We're going to have a Fed controlled by the White House and that's going to be bad. As if, you know, it hasn't been bad all along. And the Trump administration thinks that the American consumer is so valuable to the world, right? uh that the world will either relocate their factories to America in order to have access to our markets or they will just eat the tariffs that they want to sell goods to us so badly even if they have to lose money to do it they'll do it right that's how important we are even if you lose money selling to us they're going to want to do it right because we're so special right it this is nonsense none of this is going to happen the foreigners aren't going to move their factories here.
Yeah. Just because they mention a couple of factories that will probably going to come here anyway. The vast majority of the factories are not coming to America because they won't be profitable in America. The reason that Americans want to buy all these goods is because they're manufactured outside the America.
The minute we try to manufacture them here, they're going to be too expensive. That's why we're not manufacturing them here now. So, there's no way to move the factories here. And they're not going to eat the tariffs. That's nonsense. These are private businesses. They're not operating at a loss on purpose.
Come on. Uh so they're just going to use the factories for something else, right? They're going to trade with other people. Uh they're going to consume themselves. So Americans are not going to get the factories. They're just going to get higher prices. So either you pay the tariff or you go without the good.
That's what's going to happen. and it's going to have a devastating impact on our economy and the government is, you know, sugar coating this. But there's a lot of other jobs like I was reading an article about the trucking industry and how they're already seeing a big slowdown because they don't have as many uh uh products to ship and that's just getting started.
Think about all the truck drivers. What's the number one job in America for men? It's it's truck driver, right? It's millions of those guys. What are they driving around in all these trucks? They're driving products made in China. So, if we can't import these products anymore because they're too expensive, well, there's a lot less stuff to truck around.
So, we don't need as many truck drivers. So, recession in the trucking industry, but where are all these trucks going? They're going to stores, right? Or a lot of them are going directly to people's homes, right? that they bought the stuff on Amazon, but a lot of the merchandise is going to stock the shelves of stores.
Well, what's going to happen if the stores have no goods to put on the shelves? Well, a lot of them are going to shut down because they don't have any merchandise. A lot of companies are going to go out of business. Now, what happens to their workers? They get fired. See, this is not part of the 11% that Austin Goldsby said, "Oh, well, it's only 11% because it's it's it's imports." Yeah.
But without those imports, all these jobs in retail where people were selling imports, well, now they go away. But now you have all these unemployed truckers. You have all these unemployed unemployed people who are working retail. So what what happens to them? Well, you know, they don't have as much money.
So now they can't spend money on on other goods or services that maybe have nothing to do with the tariffs, nothing to do with imports. Gee, I I can't afford to get my haircut as much because I lost my job, you know, at Walmart. All right. Well, you know, now the the hair the hairdresser doesn't make as much money.
I mean, it's going to ripple throughout the economy. To just say that, oh, it's it's not going to go beyond this 11%. So, it's no big deal. Again, that's the same thing is when these idiots were saying subprime is contained. Now, do they really believe this nonsense? Or I mean, I don't think Austin Goulby thinks he's part of the Trump administration.
I mean, far from it. So, I mean, he just doesn't even understand that that basic part about economics. I mean, looking at how interconnected all all of this stuff stuff is. Uh so, this is a huge recession. And again, this is not the pain before the gain. This is just the pain before more pain because it's not going to work, right?
Trump wants to again continue all of the policies, more deficit spending. Wait, Trump wants to cut social security taxes, right? Cut taxes on tip, cut taxes on overtime. This is just more Keynesian stimulus, right? more demand stoking, pump priming, uh so we can go out and spend more money. Well, what do we spend money on?
We spend money on imports, right? That's what we spend it on. Uh but now, of course, if those imports get really expensive, well, we'll just spend the money domestically, which means prices are really going up because the import prices will go up for the stuff we don't buy, and then the price of everything we do buy is going to go up, too.
So, we have massive inflation. The only way that domestic prices don't go up is if we all pay the tariffs. See, then we pay the tariffs and we pay a lot more money to import stuff and that leaves less money left over to buy other stuff. But that too impacts the economy. There is no way this massive tax increase is not going to have a huge impact on the economy.
And it's not, again, it's not all a tax increase because a lot of the tariffs will never get collected because the tariffs are so high that people aren't going to import. And if you don't import, the government doesn't collect the tariff. But the price of the good goes up. It just nobody buys it. So the government doesn't get the money and the consumer doesn't get the good, but you have a recession.
But what does Trump again? Not only does he want more deficit spending, he wants the Fed to monetize it. He's demanding we need to cut rates. I want the pal to lower rates. That is how we got into this mess in the first place. years and years and years of artificially low interest rates uh encouraging and enabling the country to live beyond its means allowing the hollowing out of our manufacturing base and the decimation of our supply chains.
We keep exporting our high-paying jobs and replacing them with lowpaying service sector jobs. But how do these low-paying uh uh uh job holders, how do they keep spending money? Well, they they borrow it, right? They they take out loans on their credit cards. They take out a home equity loan, right? So, it's it's fueled by credit.
So, instead of having a a good job where you can save and afford to buy stuff, we have a lowpaying job. And so, we make up the difference by going into debt. So, we've leveraged up the whole economy. All the households are levered up and what are we borrowing all that money for? To finance our trade deficits to pay for all this stuff that we didn't produce and we can't afford.
And Trump wants that to continue. Now maybe he believes that we're going to just get all this tariff revenue, but we're not going to get that. Maybe he believes the rest of the world is going to build factories here. They're not going to. We have to build our own factories here. But that can't happen.
Not with the current regulatory environment that we have or the tax environment that we have or the massive government spending because if foreigners aren't going to be shipping us all this stuff, they're not going to be buying all these treasuries anymore. And that means that we have to finance our own deficits domestically.
And if we have to finance two, three, four trillion dollar year deficits, how do we do that? and finance the buildout of our manufacturing and our infrastructure and our supply chains. We can't. It's either or. Government spending has been crowding that investment out for decades. That's why we become more and more reliant on foreign production because our government has grown so big that we're spending all our money supporting government and we don't have enough left over to actually make stuff.
And so we're we're we rely on the rest of the world to make the stuff for us. And we've been exploiting uh the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. So it's the opposite of what Scott Bessett uh alleged. We have been taking advantage of the global economy. We have used the dollar's reserve status to live beyond our means.
That is the reality. And we're the ones that have to change, not uh the rest of the world. They've just been taken for a ride by us. They should have, you know, kicked us out of this arrangement years ago. But but they didn't, you know, and maybe we finally, you know, you know, slap some sense into them and maybe they're going to do what they should have done a long time ago.
But, you know, when people are critical of me because they say, "Hey, Trump is finally doing the right thing. You should just be applauding him." He's not finally doing the right thing. That is my point. Yes, he's talking about problems that in the past nobody but me discussed. We have real serious problems.
But instead of actually solving them, which would be very politically unpopular, he wants to scapegoat China and the rest of the world and demand that they fix our problems and say that by doing that, he's ripping off the band-aid when he's not even coming close uh to doing that. So in the meantime, I think you fade this bare market rally.
Uh you buy the dip in gold, even more so in the mining stocks. You sell the dollar, you keep moving assets out of the US. I think the day of reckoning here is close at
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