저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 1~2025년 고점 이후 대형 기술주 집중 시장이 취약하다고 보고 미국 주식에 부정적이다. 관세 충격으로 시장이 과매도 상태라 단기 반등 가능성은 있으나, 금리·자산 인플레 하락기로 전환되어 채권과 주식 모두 부진할 것으로 본다. 미국 주식은 밸류에이션이 과도해 10년 수익률이 -2~+2%에 그칠 수 있고, 신흥국과 유럽이 상대적으로 저렴하다고 주장한다. 장기적으로 금을 보유하지 않는 것은 중앙은행을 신뢰하는 어리석은 행동이라며 금 보유를 강하게 권한다. 금은 비싸지 않다는 주장도 함께 펼친다.
다듬은 글
But longer term, as I've said for the last 40 years, anyone who doesn't own any gold is plainly stupid, because he is trusting central banks. And how can anyone in the world trust the central banks? That is a mystery to me — that intelligent people trust central banks.
My view was that the market peaked out in the November to January period. I wrote the report "The Trump Top" on January 1, and my view was that markets would go down, largely because the Magnificent Seven stocks made up a very high percentage of the S&P 500 and also of the NASDAQ. In other words, after 2022 the market became very narrow. The breadth of the market was narrowing: only a few stocks went up and made new highs, and the majority of stocks weren't doing anything. So I was quite negative on stocks going into 2025.
The tariffs are obviously not helpful. They're a catalyst, because fund managers were mostly bullish on stocks. They told clients to go long and buy this and that. Suddenly the outlook for corporate profits is not particularly good, and the outlook for economic growth is not very good either. So they use the tariff issue as an excuse to tell their clients they have to get out of the market, and there was significant selling pressure.
But I have to point out that as a result of this tariff issue, the market has become very oversold. We haven't had this oversold condition since the COVID crisis in 2020. So I think we can have a rebound here.
By and large, my view is that we are in a time of major change. Around 1981–82 there were major changes: inflation began to abate, interest rates began to decline, commodity prices began to fall, and so on. We then went into a 40-year period of asset inflation. I think that asset inflation is largely over. From here on, I don't think financial assets, including bonds, will do particularly well, although bonds may do better than stocks. Stocks may not do particularly well for the simple reason that they're highly priced in the US. They're more expensive than ever compared to emerging markets and compared to European stocks. My sense is that money will flow out of the US into other assets.
Who knows which assets. I don't think gold is particularly cheap, but equally, if I look at asset allocation by individuals, by and large they don't own any gold. If they do, they own a few coins, not anything meaningful like 20% or 30% of their assets. In some precedents gold goes down along with financial assets, and in some cases, like during the Depression in the 1930s, gold and gold shares performed well. Gold also performed well in 1973–74 during the bear market. But there are other periods when it didn't perform well.
So if you want to take advantage of a rebound, I would look for the stocks that have gone down the most and become the most oversold, or overseas stock markets, and buy them for a rebound. But longer term, as I've said for 40 years, anyone who doesn't own gold is plainly stupid, because he is trusting central banks.
This is the first bull market in gold and precious metals in which equities have not grossly outperformed the precious metals, the bullion, the physical. The same is true for silver. I think wealthy people look at the financial system, and a billionaire must know that something is not right. Anyone who looks at the financial system — the derivatives, the leverage, the money printing — must conclude that something is not right and that it will come to an end. So if you're wealthy, with $100 million, $200 million, or a billion, you may say to yourself, "I want to own something in physical form, not a counterparty risk." That is a very good expression. Then you most likely buy physical: a ton of gold, a ton of silver, or platinum.
But many financial institutions can't do that. Pension funds and others have trustees who go to the fund manager and ask, "What is your exposure to gold, to precious metals?" The fund manager says, "No, we don't have that. We think Nvidia is a better bet, or Tesla." Then one day the trustees say, "Well, everybody's buying gold. Why don't you allocate at least 3 or 5% of the portfolio to gold?" But it will be easier for the fund manager to buy stocks than to buy physical, because he may not be equipped to buy physical. He may be equipped to buy ETFs, I concede. Lately, money flowing into ETFs has been high after being disappointing for two years, but it has recently picked up.
When I look at wealthy people around the world, of course they'll say, "Our family has gold," especially the women. But when you dig and ask how much they really have, it's usually a few coins. I'd be interested if you asked your viewers one day how many of them own more than 5% of their assets in gold. I'd be surprised if the number were high, even though you are well known as a precious metals advocate.
Is gold cheap? No. Compared to oil, it's actually expensive. But for most people, storing oil is very cumbersome and difficult, whereas storing silver, gold, or platinum is very easy. They can own oil stocks, which are very depressed. That has been my view for the last 12 months: emerging markets and Europe are relatively inexpensive. I find the Magnificent Seven stocks in America grossly overvalued, but other people have different views.
I remember an interview in 2000 with a portfolio manager who disagreed with me. I said Cisco was vulnerable to additional competition, and he gave me a lecture on why Cisco would be the stock to own for the next 10 to 15 years. Today the super bulls on tech stocks will tell you why you should own Nvidia and Tesla. I look at the valuations, and I think the likelihood that they will perform well is very small. We have various analyses showing that when stocks sell at current P/Es, meaning high price-to-earnings ratios, the subsequent return over the next 10 years is between minus 2% and plus 2% a year. In other words, it is very low. If you buy emerging markets at, say, seven times earnings, the subsequent return is probably reasonably good.
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