Has the FED Destroyed the Economy? with Marc Faber

요약 보기

결론: 중앙은행이 장기간 저금리와 양적완화로 인플레이션과 자산 거품을 키웠으며, 현재 금리 인상은 충분하지 않아 오히려 중앙은행이 무능하고 실질적으로 저축자의 돈을 빼앗고 있다는 주장. 역사적 배경: 마이너스 금리는 1920년대 독일계 스위스 경제학자 실비오 게젤의 아이디어에서 비롯된 것으로, 저축을 벌하는 발상이며 현대통화이론과 연결된다고 주장. 유럽·미국 금리 정책 비판: 유럽은 2011년부터 작년까지 마이너스 금리를, 미국은 2011년 이후 사실상 제로 금리와 대규모 통화 발행을 유지해 자산 인플레이션을 초래했다고 평가. 인플레이션 판단: 인플레이션 징후는 우크라이나 전쟁 이전부터 나타났으며, 중앙은행이 전쟁을 핑계로 삼는 것은 잘못이라고 비판. 금리 수준 비교: 미국 10년물 국채금리는 2020년 5월 0.57%에서 4% 이상으로 상승했으나, 인플레이션이 9%인 상황에서 연방기금금리 4%는 긴축(호크파이시)이라 할 수 없고 9~10% 수준이어야 한다고 주장. 과거 사례: 1969년 인플레이션 상승기에 10년물 금리가 9% 이상이었고, 1973~74년에는 12% 이상까지 오른 사례를 제시. 유럽중앙은행 비판: ECB 총재(라가르드)가 1년 전까지 인플레이션을 일시적이라 주장했고, 기준금리 0.75% 수준에서 EU 인플레이션이 9%를 넘는 상황을 무능하다고 비판. 리스크/결론: 인플레이션율보다 낮은 예금금리는 실질 손실을 만들며(예: 물가 9%, 예금금리 4%면 연 5% 손실), 이를 중앙은행이 저축자의 돈을 훔치는 행위라고 규정. 개별 투자 종목에 대한 구체적 추천은 없음.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. well I just want to say one thing people talk about the hawkish fed and the hawkish ECB and Central Bank sends a horse we have to look at this matter in the perspective from the longer term point of view because today we have a generation of people who grew up amidst artificially low interest rates that were distorting economic life in other words you had in the in Europe you had negative interest rates Okay negative interest rates is a kind of a absurdity that the roads out of the so-called modern monetary Theory and suppose which is not modern at all because it was already used the example of negative interest rates in the 1920s by uh German Swiss economists called the name will come back to me kesel his name was Silvio gazelle you can look it up on the Heat tonight anyway he advocated negative interest rates as a way to penalize people with money and others people who had deposits and also it became kind of a Keynesian view that in order to stimulate demand you could sort of introduce artificial low interest rates which then penalizes people to have large deposits in the banking system in other words you discourage savings period and in Europe we had since 2011 up to last year actually up to this year negative interest rates this is criminally my opinion because it led to a lot of inflationary symptoms like asset inflation and in the U.S we have next to zero interest rates since 2011 and massive money printing and this then kept interest rates artificially low for far too long and when inflation began to manifest itself long before Ukraine you know the central Banker says or they all say oh it's the war where interest rates increasing and inflation is increased began long before that in any event the adjustment recently is in terms of percentage increase huge the 10-year treasury note went from 0.57 percent in May 2020 to now over four percent the huge increase I mean percentage-wise in a short period of time but when you talk about hawkish you're saying interest rates on the FED fund rates at four percent is hawkish when inflation is at nine percent you must be joking interest rates should be at nine and a half ten percent in 1969 when inflation had begun to rise in the late 60s the 10-year treasury note was over nine percent it then dropped to a yield of about 3.7 percent and then in 73 to 74 it went up the 10 years treasury note to over 12 percent but inflation was not higher than it is today okay and in Europe This criminal called Daga she's in charge of the ECB why she's in charge nobody knows because she has no clue about the monetary matters but she was put there by some people behind the scene so anyway she's there and uh until a year ago she said oh inflation it's not a problem it's temporary and now she has interest rates at the 0.75 percent was in when inflation in the EU is over nine percent and you tell me the hawkish no they're not Rockies they're incompetent Criminal a criminal is someone who steals money the central banks have stolen money from honest people who had their money on deposit because if inflation is uh nine percent and your deposit rate is say four percent you still lose five percent per annum