저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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금 가격은 연준 금리인상 기대가 꺾이면서 큰 폭의 추가 상승이 예상되며, 2017년도 금 강세가 이어질 것이라는 낙관론. 금리 전망: 연준은 2016년 내내 4회 인상을 예고했으나 실제로는 12월 1회만 인상될 가능성이 크다고 봄. 12월 인상 확률은 시장 70%지만 본인은 낮게(확률 낮음) 판단. 12월 인상이 마지막이고 이후 다시 금리 인하, 마이너스 금리, 양적완화(QE4) 재개 가능성 제기. QE4는 Q3보다 훨씬 클 것이라 전망. 달러 전망: QE4와 금리인하 기대로 달러가 인상 기대로 얻었던 상승분을 모두 반납할 것으로 예상. '소문에 사고 소문이 틀리면 판다' 구도. 금 전망: 금은 내년(2017)이 2016년보다 더 좋은 해가 될 것. 2017년 초도 강세로 시작 예상. 12월 금리인상이 있어도 과거처럼 일시 하락 후 반등, 인상이 없으면 경기 약화로 역시 금에 호재. 유럽·일본 긴축: 중앙은행 긴축이 있어도 인플레 압력을 되돌리기엔 부족하고 실질금리는 여전히 하락할 것으로 봐 금에 악재가 아니라고 주장. 금에 실질적 타격은 중앙은행의 공격적 긴축뿐이며 이는 보지 않음. 포트폴리오 조언: 실물 금 5~10%, 금광주 비중 추가 가능. 본인 펀드는 금광주 약 25% 보유 일부 펀드는 0%. 금광주는 2016년 2~4배 올랐지만 여전히 매우 저평가, 금·은 가격은 크게 상승할 것. 리스크·조건: 중앙은행이 공격적으로 금리를 올려 인플레를 잡는 경우만 금에 위협, 현재 그런 조짐은 없다고 봄. 대선 관련(참고): 트럼프 지지층이 결집해 승산이 생각보다 높다고 봄. 본인은 게리 존슨 지지, 차선 트럼프, 힐러리는 최하위. 연준이 대선 이후 추가 부양을 원할 것이라는 시각도 있음.
다듬은 글
Peter Schiff known gold bug and the CEO of europacific capital joins us now on the sidelines of the New Orleans investment conference you're also a speaker here Peter good to have you back on the show well it's great to be back on the show I'm excited to talk gold with you you know we met last year looking at the outlook for gold in 2016 you were you were bullish and gold has had a great run so how do you see it set up now now well I think this is just a down payment on much larger returns to come you know when the year began everybody was bearish on gold because everybody expected the fed the hike rates or not just hike once but begin the much hyped and anticipated normalization process right because rates had been at zero for many many years and finally the Fed was beginning to normalize rates and what I was saying at the time was hey I didn't believe it and that even if the FED raised rates that it wouldn't matter because they could never deliver the rate hikes that were anticipated by the markets and ultimately we only got one hike the one in December remember early on the Fed was hinting that we'd have four rate hikes this year I said not a chance and here we are we may only get one in December you think we might see it in December well I still think the odds are no even though the market says 70% yes but the market has been convinced before that the Fed was going to hike rates and then you know just like Lucy with the football you know she pulls it away from from char Brown you know I still think that it's mainly Bluff but even if the FED does hike rates in December I don't think they're going to do it again I think that'll be the last hike of the cycle and the next thing the FED will do is reduce rates again this time they won't stop at zero I think they're going to go negative and I think they're going to relaunch quantitative easing qe4 I think it will be much bigger uh than Q3 it won't be any more effective but what it will do is destroy the dollar I think the dollar will surrender all those ill gains that were based on the anticipation of rate hikes that never materialized it's not just buy the rumor sell the fact it's buy the rumor and then sell because the rumor wasn't true and I think Gold's going to take off and I think next year is going to be an even bigger year for gold than was 2016 and what about the Euro SC Europe scenario everyone's almost waiting for dragy to to announce tightening you know just when we saw the rumor of it possibly happening in Europe gold had had a correction what do you think will happen there well I don't think tightening is going to be bad for gold whether it happens in Europe or Japan I don't think it's happening in the United States because even if they tighten it's not enough I think the inflationary forces that have already been Unleashed are not going to be rebottled with small rate hikes so even if central banks tighten I think real interest rates are still going to be uh falling because I think the cost of living or the inflation rate will be rising faster than the tightening and the only way to really hurt gold would be for Central Bank s to come aggressive inflation fighters to really get out in front of the curve and to raise interest rates substantially and I don't see any of that happening how much gold are you allocating right now in a portfolio what do you what are you advising well I mean you know it depends on the individual and people decide to hold whatever gold they feel is appropriate I generally have recommended for people that when it comes to Gold they have maybe 5 to 10% of their portfolio in physical gold uh and then they also can have a portion of their Equity portfolio allocated to you know gold mining stocks I mean one of the mutual funds that I run which is a value fund we have now have about 25% of the portfolio in Gold stocks um and so it depends on you know on your objectives and you know relative value of gold stocks some of my funds don't have any gold stocks at all but if I feel it's appropriate for a particular strategy but I think right now if you look at gold stocks and of course this whole conference you know all the exhibitors pretty much are mining companies and shows year they've had really well but it's still even though these companies a lot of these mining stocks have doubled tripled quadrupled or more this year they're still very very cheap because all they've did is recover ground they never should have lost based on the anticipation of rate hikes that never material when you see some you know up like 200% doeses that not worry you and think okay there's a not if they fell 90% I mean they're still way down and of course I still believe the price of gold and the price of silver are going substantially higher so the real value of these companies is far greater than what the market perceives you know I don't like asking people to look into you know a crystal ball but if you have to look at a price forecast for gold uh as we start off 2017 how do you see it starting off well I think it's going to start off on a strong note I think kind of like this year started off strong because I think even if the FED hikes rates in December we'll have a similar reaction that we had to the last December rate hike which was you know maybe an initial decline knee-jerk move down but then a big relief rally in gold and if the fed doesn't deliver a rate hike because the economy is too weak that's also bullish for gold and also I think that one of the reasons the Federal Reserve has been talking up the economy is because they want to help elect Hillary Clinton they don't want to admit the economy is as weak as it is but once the election is over I think regardless of the outcome they no longer really have to keep up the pretense I think they really want more stimulus but they don't want to send a signal to the voter that the economy needs the stimulus they want to pretend that Obama solved all the problems but the reality is he made the problems worse but once the outcome of the election is known I think the FED could you know do really looking forward to putting this election behind us like most of the sentiment is here I don't know I mean I mean it's it's certainly entertaining but it's it's difficult for any other news story to gain traction when you know every day it's what a woman came out against Donald Trump but it's unfortunate that the election is not more about the actual issues of the economy and the the complete failure of the Obama Administration and it's not even about the crimes committed uh by Hillary Clinton and her husband uh and all the coverups I mean this is real corruption and everything that's wrong with government is personified by the clintons and that really should be the focus the fact that Hillary is even the nominee uh shows you the state of uh of of the United States but I'm more interested though obviously in the outcome of this election and so we will see I I don't think that Trump is as long a shot as is generally perceived because the economy is terrible the average voter knows it the enthusiasm for Hillary is not there right so we might have a brexit type scenario know I mean we'll see because everybody was enthusiastic about Barack Obama 8 years ago and he let everybody down uh his constituents particularly African-Americans are much worse off today than they were eight years ago and so if Obama couldn't fix their problems I doubt they think Hillary can so I don't think that her base is that enthusiastic or motivated whereas I think the Trump base actually believes that Trump could make America great again maybe he can maybe he can't but the point is his his his base believes it and I think they're going to turn out so we'll see depending on the turnout I know you were backing your vote was with Gary Johnson I saw you had freedom first yeah I mean look I've always been mainly voting libertarian and I live in Connecticut which is I mean Hillary's going to win Connecticut with or without my vote so I can kind of vote my conscience and I think of the three you know I'd vote Gary Johnson is he perfect no I mean I'd rather vote for Ron Paul than Gary Johnson you know uh but I think of my three choices uh he would be number one and then Trump would be number two and then I don't even know I might even go for Jill Stein over Hillary I mean even though she's she's horrible at least she's not a criminal she just honestly you know doesn't know anything she's like Bernie Sanders right she's wrong but she might not be a bad person I just can't see handing all that to somebody as corrupt as Hillary Clinton we'll see in a few weeks Peters ship thanks so much for stopping by and thank you for watching our coverage on the sidelines here of the New Orleans investment conference while have more for you so be sure to stay tuned to kod.com thanks for watching thanks Peter always a pleasure
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