저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션과 금리 급등 우려는 과장됐고, 공급망 병목은 2022년 중 해소될 것이라는 관점. 시장 가격 반영 논리: 시장은 널리 알려진 정보를 미리 가격에 반영하며, 장기채권이 이미 인플레이션을 반영하지 않았다면 큰 인플레이션은 없다는 것이 근거다. 금리 흐름: 미국 장기금리는 저점 대비 약 0.3%p, 일본은 약 0.06%p 상승에 그쳤다. 장기금리는 글로벌하게 함께 움직이는 경향이 있다. 인플레이션 지표: 최근 전년비 7%는 크지만 월간 수치는 여러 달째 하락했고, 근원 인플레이션은 그 절반 미만이다. 연말쯤에는 인플레이션이 중요하지 않은 주제가 될 것이라 본다. 중앙은행 역할: 연준 등 중앙은행은 원인이라기보다 반응하는 쪽에 가깝다. 과거 금리 인상 사이클에서 장기금리는 인상 전후로 일정 폭 상승 후 12개월 뒤 하락하는 경향이 있었다. 인플레이션 원인: 코로나 봉쇄 이후 산업 전반의 생산능력 재가동이 불균등하게 진행되며 공급망 병목이 발생했다. 목재·철광석 가격은 고점 대비 조정됐고, 해운 운임도 10월 대비 낮아졌다. 전망: 2022년 중 공급망은 자연스럽게 정상화되며, 시장은 이를 미리 반영하고 인플레이션과 단·장기 금리 영향은 예상보다 덜 문제가 될 것이다. 리스크/조건: 공급 능력 회복 속도는 불확실하며 정확한 시기는 알 수 없다고 명시. 출연자 견해 요약: 인플레이션 우려에 대한 반대 입장을 유지하며, 군중 합의에 대해 회의적 태도를 취한다.
다듬은 글
so relative to economics and markets i don't think there's currently a topic that's getting more ink and attention and air time than inflation interest rates supply chain and all of that and in reality i always come back to some basic principles one of them is in markets markets pre-price all widely known information which includes opinions about the widely known information and markets aren't perfect and of course we have volatility but overall markets are pretty good and when i say capital markets i mean capital markets fairly broadly at figuring this stuff out and pre-pricing it while people keep yak yaking about it there's almost no exceptions to that market in the short term is a voting machine as ben graham famously said but in the long term it's a weighing machine and we've had enough concern about inflation now long enough being a big thing this year in a big way and i want to be real careful before i go further on this if you talk to one side of the political spectrum or the other there is a lot charged on this topic but the fact is that markets don't care and ignore all that political charge except for maybe as it relates to politics but as it relates to markets i'm just going to make a simple statement if there was a big long wave of inflation ahead long bonds around the world would have already priced it now let me point out first in this that money flows globally has for a really long time u.s long bonds compete with japanese long bonds european long bonds money flows globally long-term interest rates tend to correlate around the world they move at the same time not perfectly but pretty perfectly we've had all this talk and for example in america off the bottom on long rates we've had an increase of about not quite three tenths of one percent in japan we've had an increase of six one hundredths when you look at the moves upward they've been small i'll come back talk about that in a minute a different way but first i want you to see that if there was a huge wave of inflation ahead the long bond would have already priced it domestically and around the world secondarily while the recent print on inflation was a big number seven percent year over year the monthly numbers month after month have actually been down now for several months core inflation rate as opposed to the extremities is actually less than half that and i believe but may be wrong that when you get toward the end of this year we will have seen inflation move away to be a non-topic and not terribly important or as big as people thought because if it was the long bond would have already had a bigger move long-term bonds would have fallen long-term rates would have gone up why because long-term lenders will not part with their money over the longer term if they're going to get back steeply depreciated money by inflation without having been compensated for that through higher interest rates it's a pretty simple concept it's a concept people forget which is look to see is the market doing what everybody says it would now that gets to the next point which is in markets it's always good to think like a contrarian and the consensus right now on inflation being big ahead and long rates rising a lot in the future this year is very strong and that in and of itself should make you very skeptical there's very few voices against the notion that inflation is big and important right now and likely to get more so on long rates in america i already mentioned that they've been up about 30 basis points off the load three tenths of one percent we have a very long history of interest rates short and long and we know when the central bank u.s federal reserve and for that matter foreign central banks have for the first time in a business cycle kicked up short rates to try to tighten so-called uh monetary policy what you can say very simply is that when that's happened long rates have risen a little before that happened typically 20 to 30 basis points two to three tenths of one percent and then after that maybe on average another 10 or 20 basis points one tenth of one percent two tenths of one percent and then not after that after that twelve months later they're falling and that's regardless of whether there'd been subsequent interest rate hikes or not and i say that because fundamentally i believe and i've always believed that central banks and the u.s federal reserve in particular are much more reactors than they are causers what they do isn't insignificant but it's less important than everything else that's going on around and what's going on around that has made inflation become what it is is the supply chain bottlenecks that you've heard about abundantly and they come simply from the fact that in the aftermath of covet and the lockdowns and around the world off and on and changing governmental restrictions about what can be done and can't be done capacity's been shut down and then started to be brought back up that process in different categories across the industrial spectrum has clearly made it hard to put together complicated things whether it's things that come from electronics and semiconductors or other than energy in europe uh almost anything else we are in the process of unraveling that capacity in most categories is coming back some areas naturally faster than others which is what you'd expect if you look at prices some of them like lumber peaked came back down have risen again some but are still well below where they were let's say in september october iron ore same way the fact of the matter is as more capacity comes on these things will take care of themselves the supply chain bottlenecks come also partly as you've all read and heard from problems in shipping but shipping prices have actually already peaked and are markedly lower than they were let's say in october all of this will in the course of 2022 rectify itself at exactly what pace i couldn't tell you but it will and as that happens marcus will pre-price that and move on and the inflation effect and on interest rates short and long term will be less troublesome than people expect thank you for listening to me you
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