저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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2022년 시장의 주요 리스크는 이미 널리 알려진 것(인플레이션, 금리 인상, 정치, 오미크론)보다, 사람들이 잘 언급하지 않는 놀라운 악재에서 나온다는 주장이다. 이미 알려진 리스크는 대부분 가격에 선반영되어 있어 영향이 제한적이라고 본다. 전쟁처럼 재앙적이지만 드문 사건은 시점을 특정해 대비하기 어렵고, 예측이 맞을 확률도 극히 낮다고 설명한다. 첫 번째 주목 리스크는 '대퇴사(Great Resignation)' 이후의 노동 시장 재편이다. 많은 근로자가 새 직무에 익숙하지 않아 생산성이 떨어지고 비용 상승으로 이어지면 경기침체의 원인이 될 수 있다고 본다. 두 번째는 중간선거 해의 입법 리스크로, 자사주 매입 규제가 초당적 이슈로 부각될 수 있다고 언급한다. 다만 의회에서 당파를 넘어 합의하기 어려워 실제 입법 가능성은 낮다고 본다. 세 번째는 록다운 이후 재택근무 확산으로 인한 사무실 수요 급감과 부동산 등 연관 부문의 조정 리스크다. 래리 핑크의 출근 복귀 발언을 인용하며 노동 환경 충돌의 비용이 클 수 있다고 본다. 미 대법원이 바이든 행정부의 백신 의무화 조치를 무효화한 사실도 언급하며, 정책 변화에 따른 사업 환경 충돌에 계속 경계할 필요가 있다고 강조한다. 전체적으로 구체적인 종목이나 지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 없고, 시장 리스크 관리의 관점을 제시한 영상이다.
다듬은 글
risks to watch what are they what should you focus on as risks to watch in 2022 i get asked that all the time i get asked it so often i wonder if people are asking me if it's a television show or something i i don't know because i don't really watch television but i'd like to break the topic down into uh sort of three categories one there's the stuff everybody talks about uh this year it's includes inflation rising interest rates things about politics which have you know there's a lot of yak yak about that all the time markets pre-price all widely known information and these things that people talk about a lot omicron etc etc they tend to be fully priced really fast and while there's still a risk about them in that they could end up being worse than what people talk about probably only by about that much and therefore there's risk there but not that much risk the second category i want to talk about are things that are catastrophic but almost never happen you can pick these out uh when i say catastrophic i mean big potential negative consequences world war uh we all know what happened with covet and we know that that uh in the lockdowns broke the market for a few weeks but only for a few weeks by july we're back to new highs so it would take something bigger and more catastrophic than that and these things tend to be so rare and so unlikely that you can't plan for them in a timely way you can't say i think this year x will happen well maybe you can but it would be just a complete wild speculation and the odds of it being correct are extraordinarily low the third thing is what is important that people don't much talk about and here's where the biggest risks are because the biggest risks in markets are always surprise bad things that nobody talks about or if they talk about them they don't think at all of them as being potentially bad things it's always what people don't talk about that counts so let's just speak to that for a minute this year you've heard a lot and last year as well about the so-called great resignation where people are quitting jobs at an extraordinarily high rate that in and of itself is not a problem the potential problem is if and when we run into other problems an extraordinarily large part of the workforce is new at what they do and could have repercussions from rising costs if they're not actually in their new jobs in aggregate what you might think of as up to doing it the potential for the great resignation not as it's occurred but the aftermath of it turning into something that's a form of dislocation that could contribute to recession is not insignificant and it's something to be paying attention to how many of the people seeking the new jobs end up with new jobs in places where they actually end up being happy and doing well and adding productivity to the employer the answer is we don't really know but that's going to play out in 2022 and it's a risk to watch another one is the concerns in legislation of flamboyance in the midterm election year i think this is not very likely but there's a lot of things that you could worry about for example this year and last year stock buybacks to reduce the number of shares outstanding to boost earnings per share by using corporate cash or borrowed money to get corporate cash to buy back stock in the public market have been going to records there's people in washington dc that do not like this uh you take elizabeth warren over here and marco rubio over there and they're both vehemently opposed to this or at least they say so uh legislation that would try to stop stock buybacks would be very bad is that going to happen i don't know that it will because it's pretty hard right now to get anybody in congress to agree with the other side on almost anything and yet i could see that as becoming a hot button midterm election feature because it cuts across partisan lines to a large extent the uh earlier concept of the great resignation causing dislocations can be played back another way against business that could be very bad in this period from the beginning of the lockdowns business has been amazingly adaptive to try to do this and do that to respond to whatever it is governmental jurisdictions have imposed on them that has included everything from work from home zoom meetings this is that's and the other thing again i point to the fact that some of this can be thought of as a dislocation if you believe and i don't want to say this that work from home becomes a new standard you have a huge office supply glut how will it work out in 2022 i'm not 100 sure uh as i am recording today uh larry fink of blackrock said that it's crucial that we get people back into the office that's a tug of war that may be a costly tug of war in 2022 and it may not be but it's a risk to watch so these dislocations from the aftermath of all of the jurisdictional governmental requirements associated with the lockdowns is is an area to watch for risks uh earlier uh this week as i speak the united states supreme court vacated uh president biden's uh so-called vaccine mandates the reality of the potential for extraordinary things to happen in this case vacated but in other cases moving forward maybe not causing dislocations in business are not insignificant and you should be looking on the lookout for dislocations of any form because in this period while business has been adaptive and responding well you can get some curveballs thrown at business in general that we're not able to adapt to
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