저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 인플레이션이 장기간 높게 지속될 것이라 보며, 30년물 등 장기채 금리는 더 오를 수 있다고 본다. 인플레이션·금리 전망: 하우스 뷰는 인플레이션이 지속적으로 높을 것이며, 이는 수주 내 단기간에도 발생할 수 있다고 한다. 구조적 인플레이션은 3% 이상으로 장기간 갈 것으로 본다. 장기채 수급 우려: 셧다운으로 데이터 공백이 생기고, 중국·러시아·사우디의 미국채 매도와 대규모 재정적자 속 국채 발행 증가로 장기채 수급이 매우 나쁘다고 평가한다. 30년 국채가 4.7% 수준은 3% 이상 구조 인플레를 감안하면 보상이 부족하다고 본다. 금리 방향: 30년물 금리가 5% 선을 넘어 더 오를 수 있으며, 10년물도 5%대 접근 가능성을 언급한다. 최근 몇 주간 큰 폭 상승이 있었다고 한다. 투자 전략: 주식시장에 대해서는 가격 결정력(pricing power)을 가진 기업을 선호한다. 로열티형 사업(유니버설뮤직, 알파벳, 레스토랑브랜즈, 힐튼 등)은 인플레이션이 오히려 우호적이며, 3% 인플레 환경에서도 잘 된다고 본다. 할인율은 약 9~10%를 쓴다. 리스크: 금리 상승으로 주식시장이 흔들릴 수 있다는 점을 인정한다. 정부 셧다운과 데이터 중단이 단기 금리 변동성을 키울 수 있다. 대상 자산 발언: 미국채금리(10년·30년) 상승 전망, 미국 장기금리 방향은 상승. 주식·개별 종목 직접 매매 언급은 없음. 삼성전자 등 한국 종목 언급 없음.
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again my view is inflation or kind of the house view is inflation is going to be persistently higher and that can to happen in the very short term like like literally weeks and I think the structural forces have changed hello investing Buffs and financial enthusiasts Welcome to our Channel your source for top insights from the world's Financial Titans we're here with fresh knowledge to energize your financial Adventure today we have a special treat for you a rare interview with the legendary Bill Amman we dig deep into billionaire investor Bill amman's thoughts he brings attention to inflation but don't panic in this video will reveal that there's more to the tail stay tuned to learn amman's plan to not only Safeguard your money but also earn significant profits despite inflation let's get started here's what you've been waiting for what Amman suggests for wealth building during inflation these strategies are for everyone Pros and beginners use them as a road map not just to weather the inflation storm but thrive in inflationary times are you still figuring that rates at the long end the 30-y year for example or however on the long end are still going to go higher yes I I look I think there's even in the relative short term there are a number of reasons why rates can move a lot among them right we have a government's shutdown we're going into what looks like a highly probable government shutdown we're going to have a data shutdown right all these little government agencies that put out data that the Federal Reserve relies on to decide whether to you know adjust interest rates they're going to lose access to that data so we kind sort of like kind of dark period uh we have probably the worst technical environment in our lifetimes for supply of bonds versus buyer bonds right we have China selling we have Russia to the extent they own us Securities and more selling we have Saudi Arabia selling um and uh you know we have an economy that is still strong WR and inflation you know 3 and a half 4% uh persistent but you know my our view is basically you're not being paid enough to enter into a 30-year contract with the US government at a fixed price you know 4.7 or where it is now um doesn't make sense in a world where we think structural inflation is north of 3% for the for the very long term and we went through this very unusual period with extremely low interest rates um you know where everything just got cheaper and the you know since the financial crisis you know the effort of the Federal Reserve was to make sure we didn't have deflation you know let's the aspirational goal is to get to 2% inflation and then the pandemic and you know trillions of fiscal stimulus you know the psychological stimulus of being free to to Ram after being locked up you know all of these factors coming at once kind of lit inflation and we still have this massive deficit spending we still have infrastructure uh spending they and the government's selling literally hundreds of billions of dollars of Securities you know uh um bills and and and at some point they're going to have to sell more and more of the longer instruments and if you look at the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve it's it's it's an imprudent balance sheet uh you know if you think about the United States right if you were If This Were Like a business you wouldn't have so much short-term you wouldn't have you know a third or more of your debt repricing within the next year you know so it's not been managed I think actually Steve minan did a good job as treasury secretary the one thing he missed is he should have issued a lot of 30 50 year 100y year paper at at at crazy low interest rates and and that's going to be a burden hearing a hearing a lot from investors these days Ken Griffin was on our Network within the last week or so I just had a conversation with Rick reer of black rock those who are talking about the possibility of much higher real rates for much longer than people think for the very reasons that you're talking about the issuance is so massive and where are the buyer going to come from and the result of that is going to be higher yeah I don't about much higher real rates uh I think we're I think you know again my view is inflation or kind of the house view is inflation is going to be persistently higher well you are the house I I guess I control the door on the way in and out I guess but um you know our view is really that uh we're in a different world and you know the world sort of changes gradually uh and you have a generation of people are used to rates you know for sounding like a high interest rate and and it's you know on a historical basis it's an extremely low rate of interest so I would not be shocked to see you know 30-year rates well you know well into the you know through the five barrier uh and you could see 10 the 10-e approach approach five J and that and that can happen in the very short term like like literally weeks huge move in the last uh number of weeks and I think a lot of that is investors kind of rethinking you know what's interesting about the 30-year treasury is people reflexively uh buy it whenever they you know because they've made money doing it in advance of a a recession but it's really not an instrument you should use to speculate on the short-term economy it's it's a fixed price contract with the US government for 30 years and reflects really structural forces and I think the structural forces have changed the warning given by billionaire investor Bill Amman about the future of inflation sure grabbed attention but is the situation as Grim as it seems there's no need for worry we're going to analyze amman's viewpoints and reveal a technique that could spin things to your benefit Amman recently gave a rare long interview where he discussed many things his viewpoints on inflation were the Highlight keep reading to understand his economic views why inflation stays high and how to protect your money from its effects understanding the inflation landscape before we dig into amman's Pro tips let's get a handle on our challenge inflation inflation is the silent wealth killer at the value of your hard-earned money but don't worry Amman unravels the basics giving you a clear understanding with the knowledge of how to fight with this economic Beast recently inflation rates have climbed up reminding us of the early 80s people used to worry about low inflation or even deflation but now things are different the Federal Reserve targeted a stable 2% inflation but it's tough what's causing these price increases in the 2020s people got more money due to economic stimuli at the same time supply chain issues caused some Goods to be scarce so Prices rose Amman thinks this isn't just for now but might last longer the forces behind inflation Amman views the situation from a broader perspective he takes into account Global political and economic changes you've got higher costs of producing Goods abroad people asking for better pay and an enhanced focus on eco-friendly energy contributing to economic changes also the fact that gas prices are skyrocketing does make you think will paying more for everything become usual the Federal Reserve tries to control inflation by changing interest rates however Amman thinks these changes might stay for good bill amman's Investment Portfolio let's delve into amman's way of investing even though he manages a fund worth billions he only invests in seven companies from alphabet to Hilton his choices show he's selective but what's special about these companies the company's acman chooses have two main traits that help them resist inflation and in some cases benefit from it the first trade is pricing power the power to increase prices without scaring customers away amman's insights for investors Amman isn't bothered by inflation he trusts we can adjust to this economic change let's hear it from the man himself you must be negative the equity Market how could you have a positive view of stocks if you think that that's the outcome for bonds yields because if you own high quality uh key is owning businesses that have pricing power businesses that can do well in a world of and by the way many businesses can do well in a world of 3% inflation the key is it's hard to manage a business in a world where inflation is volatile or or inflation is 8% or you know the kind of crazy numbers um but many many businesses can do very well in a world of 3% inflation and the kind of companies we own they're very much like royalties you know so we own Universal Music which is a royalty on listening to music if there's PL music playing out there Universal is getting a fraction of a penny for every song uh you know that's being streamed um you Google Google's a royalty if you will on people advertising you know on the web right or or on YouTube uh restaurant brands is a royalty on people eating at Burger King or any of their various Concepts Hilton is a I continue you know royalty on people staying in hotels and and and uh eating and drinking and going to events the beauty of these kinds of businesses is you know actually inflation is ultimately their friend right as long as they can keep their costs as long as their costs don't inflate as quickly as their as their revenues and I think the nature of those so so I I feel comfortable owning those kinds of uh businesses even if infl remains high and and also again historically you if you think about you know what is the value of a business it's the present value of the cash you can take out of it over his life discounted back at an appropriate interest rate we were not discounting businesses back using 2% as an appropriate rate of interest so we've historically you know our discount rate we've used you know just rough measure is more like 10% uh 9% you know numbers which discount the uncertainty inherent of investing in equities yes the stock market could wobble due to higher interest rates but Amman stands firm he targets companies that work as royalties gaining as they expand in their sectors will his foresight be accurate we have to wait and see all right everyone we've just shared Bill amman's strategy worth billions will his wisdom endure we want your thoughts leave them below make sure to follow for weekly tips on investing enjoy your journey in investing and we'll meet again in the upcoming video
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