저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오는 대규모 부채와 화폐 발행(화폐화)이 인플레이션을 유발하고 있으며, 대중 포퓰리즘과 강대국 갈등이라는 1930~45년과 유사한 구조가 반복되고 있다고 주장한다. 법정화폐는 가치저장 수단으로서 실질수익률이 마이너스이므로 신뢰도가 떨어지고, 투자자들은 금리 상승 과정에서 주식과 채권을 매도하고 있다. 연준의 긴축 대비 정부 국채 발행과 연준 보유 국채 축소로 민간 신용이 위축되어 경기침체로 이어질 수 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
it affects everybody you know and so I started studying in history and I found out the same thing happened on March 3rd 1933 Roosevelt did the exact same thing for the exact same reason leading to the exact same result and so studying past periods that didn't happen in my lifetime like we haven't been through a war before and we haven't been through a civil war or we haven't been in the circumstances so the three big things that are happening in our lifetimes that we have not been through before are the creation of an enormous amount of debt and printing of money to monetize the debt that's number one and so we'll talk about inflation and where we are in that cycle and I'm like a mechanic I'm not ideological I'm just like what are the cause effect relationships how does that Dynamic work mechanistically but it produces inflation uh the second but very interrelated to this is the large internal conflicts that we are having populism of the left and populism of the right and values differences that is producing a conflict populism means that some representative who will fight for me on my cause against the other side that means not compromise not be in the middle but to fight to win at all costs and when we have that populism brought about also by the largest wealth Gap differences largest opportunity Gap differences and so on that type of conflict I have never seen in my life but that also happened in the 1930 to 45 period and so I needed to go back and then study that over time and then the third is the great power conflict when 1945 when this world order began as all World orders there's a war there's a dominant power the dominant power sets the rules and when the dominant power sets the rules uh then you have a period of peace and prosperity and so the United States in 194 45 had 80% of the world's money it had half a world GDP it had a monopoly on the military power and so we came into the American World Order that Gap that power Gap has shrunk to be approximately equal with the other side and we're having a great power conflict so you have to go back to that period of time and I've seen that period of time happen repeatedly when these three things happen repeatedly it's a very dangerous set of circumstances so we are in a POS position on the financial one to be in a position where you cannot rais living standards by raising money and credit another words if you increase money then the value of money is going to go down and one man's debts are another man's assets and so when they get Negative returns by holding a debt asset they're going to sell that debt asset and that produces a problem and that's over a period of time and so the Romans for example put less gold into gold coins and so you saw it in its way and that certainly produces kind of the inflation because you can't raise living standards by printing more money so we have that going on and so there's that Dynamic of uh where is a storeold of wealth the purpose of a currency is two purposes a medium of exchange and a storeold of wealth a storeold of wealth means you buy its debt and its assets and you can save in it and people believe that cash is a safe investment but they're seeing that what happens is it's losing buying power and it will lose buying power so they start to realize it's not a safe investment inflation over last year about 8% interest rates were nothing and so there was an 8% change in buying par that kinds of changes and sort of reinforces the inflation cycle we pay too much attention to one currency in relationship to another currency and not enough attention to the fact that those aren't the choices it's a choice for transactions but it's not a choice for storeold of wealth so if you're holding ing European euros and Euro denominated debt and you're getting a negative interest rate or thereabouts and the same is true in Japan and you're not making up with inflation none of those are good and like in the 30s they all depreciated they all went down in relationship to goods and services and other asset prices so what you see is all the currencies along those lines are sort of tied to each other and they're bad stor holds of wealth and that's why you see moves to other assets it pays to borrow and or if not borrow but put your money into assets that maintain buying power so you see it happen in all the different ways so look at whether what you're holding in the form of that cash denominated and that'll be a debt instrument that's how you hold a currency in order to have a storeold of wealth look at its real Returns the FED understands and not central banks know that when inflation is undesirably high and economy is relatively strong you put on the brakes and that when the reverse is the case you put on the gas and they don't understand I think monetary inflation enough what has happened is that because they put on the gas so much have allowed interest rates to be so low as I say in many cases negative interest rates and they've made liquidity so abundant that not only didn't you have to pay interest on your debt but you didn't have to pay principal on your debt because they would have interest only loans and they would have low covenants like it's easy to not meet your debt requirement companies borrow individuals borrow interest only loans and when there's no interest rate mean basically mean the stuff is free you can buy houses you can buy all sorts of things on that basis and the world has adapted to that and they did that at had a very low real interest rate a very low interest rate relative to inflation and then they printed a lot more of that money and so on and so inflation is going up so mechanistically what that means is now we have a lot more debt and we have an economy and a markets financial markets that the pricing is structured based on those very low interest rates and that amount of liquidity so when you go through the calculations when I go through the calculations and I I figure um a high enough level of interest rate to provide a decent real return is for a holder of the debt is much too high of an interest rate for the markets in the economy but you're going to have an inflation rate that's above the interest rates and that's not going to be desirable so investors want to sell that and you could see it as interest rates rise you can see it's effects on markets you could see the effects on the capital markets uh so you see the stock market going down while the bond market is going down and that means most everything that people own practically are going down practically because most people are in stocks and bonds that kind of thing the fed's tradeoff is going to be very difficult right now they have a very restrictive monetary policy plan I judge that by the supply and the demand for credit so the Federal government is going to run large deficits so that means they will have to sell debt they'll sell treasury bills and bonds the Federal Reserve is planning to sell $1.1 trillion of debt also private investors are inclined Pension funds and so on they're losing money while there's inflation so they're losing buying power they're selling and there's a selling imbalance and that selling imbalance means because it has to balance with the buers that means a contraction in private credit which means a recession
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