저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 AI·로봇·에너지저장·블록체인·멀티오믹스 5대 플랫폼의 융합으로 새로운 호황이 시작됐다고 주장. 해당 기술들의 시장이 현재 수십억 달러에서 5~10년 내 10조 달러 이상으로 성장하고, 실질 GDP 성장을 가속하며 인플레이션은 낮아질 것이라 봄. 테슬라·스페이스X 등 혁신기업 투자 옹호, 프라이빗 기업 접근 펀드 소개.
다듬은 글
We believe we are entering what I believe will eventually be considered a boom, and that is largely driven by the development of some new technologies. We believe that this field worldwide, including China, will grow from the current billions of dollars in revenue to over $10 trillion within the next 5-10 years.
AI is the biggest catalyst that transforms and accelerates all other platforms. What if AI and Bitcoin were to become the driving force behind the greatest wealth creation cycle in history? Katie Wood believes that today's fear-filled market is reminiscent of the early 1980s, just before the historic boom.
She says artificial intelligence is accelerating every major innovation, while blockchain and Bitcoin are changing the future of finance. Could this technological revolution be the catalyst for the next massive bull market? Let's take a look at Katie Wood's bold vision . . Today is very reminiscent of the beginning of my career.
In the 80s and 90s, when I was just out of college and very impressionable, I watched the stock market, the equity market. And we were overcoming the "wall of anxiety," especially after, well, actually starting in 1982. When I say " wall of worry," we investors were worried about inflation. They were worried about interest rates.
They were worried about quotas, trade quotas. Today, it would be customs duties. They were worried about wars, the Iraq war, etc. They were worried about the financial crisis. In 1987, there was "Black Monday," when the stock market fell by almost 25% in one day . Which is a bit like the current drama with private lending, but the market continued to rise to new highs.
So, I think we are in the same situation. And in the US in particular, we believe we are entering what I believe will eventually be considered a boom. And this, we believe, is largely due to the development of new technologies. These are five main platforms: robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence (which is important), blockchain technology, and multi-omic sequencing in the life sciences .
And this revolution, in our opinion, will accelerate real GDP growth beyond the levels we are accustomed to. And this is very important, especially given the concerns in the market. We believe this will lead to much lower inflation than expected, perhaps even deflation from time to time—and that's not a bad deflation, because technology is inherently deflationary.
So we think these technologies are already big enough to start affecting real growth and inflation. What are these platforms, what distinguishes, you know, transformative innovations from the latest market fads, and what investment opportunities or technologies arise from them. Of course. So, I just mentioned the five main innovation platforms.
They include 15 different technologies. But the platforms themselves have three characteristics: They follow a learning curve. Technology is all about productivity, improving efficiency, scaling unit growth, and reducing costs. So that's the first thing. And lower costs are a second characteristic , as they allow more industries to access these new technologies.
The lower the costs, the more industries can benefit from them, and even consumers. And the third characteristic is that these platforms serve as launching pads for further innovations. For example, in the world of multiomics, DNA sequencing has come down in price from $2.7 billion to sequence a single person's genome 23 years ago to less than $100 today.
So now that we're all going to have our genome sequenced over time, and we're probably going to be able to detect mutations every year with AI, and because we can identify mutations that are the very first manifestations of disease, we're going to be able to use new technology. Sequencing became the launching pad for CRISPR gene editing, which can remove these mutations or programming errors and treat diseases.
Katie, you mentioned this before, but let's quickly summarize the platforms. We mentioned multiomics, but you also have AI. AI is the biggest catalyst that transforms and accelerates every other platform. So, it's AI , robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and of course, multiomic sequencing in the life sciences .
And on that basis, there are about 12-13 technologies that you are looking to invest in . Yes. These platforms include 15 different technologies. And just to give you an idea of what we mean by that . Robotics is a very broad field, and reusable rockets are part of the robotics theme, and of course, that creates a whole new world for investment.
You're also probably talking about platform convergence. This is what truly creates a truly transformational company. Could you elaborate on this a little more? Perhaps you can give us an example that will be well known to the audience. Of course. Um, yes. Yes. I think we call this period a technological revolution not so much because of the technologies themselves, each one separately, but because of their convergence.
You know, it 's been really interesting to watch Elon Musk over the years. I mean, we've been following him, I've personally been following him for 20 years, but he never used the word "convergence" until last year. And he said—and we're very proud of this, he might even read our research, because he actually reads it—he said, "You know, I think my companies are converging more than I ever expected." And then, who would have thought, shortly after that, SpaceX acquired XAI, and now there are rumors that SpaceX is buying Tesla.
So, what is it? One big, one big convergence here is autonomous mobility. Today, Elon is working on robotaxis, autonomous vehicles, and passenger transportation. And this is the convergence of robots . Autonomous vehicles are robots. Energy saving, they will be electric. Electric cars will become much cheaper than gasoline cars, and they will operate on the basis of artificial intelligence.
So, these are three of the five main innovation platforms. We believe this space globally , including China, will grow from billions of dollars in revenue today to over $10 trillion over the next 5–10 years. Think about it. That's about a third of the US economy today. So this will significantly change the situation.
And when we say that real GDP will accelerate, we believe that this will happen thanks to the transformation of transportation: not just cars, but also trucks, drones, air taxis. We believe this will be one of the most powerful accelerators of economic activity in the next 5–10 years. Katie Wood remains one of Elon Musk's most ardent supporters .
She believes that his greatest strength is not just his intelligence . This is his ability to solve problems using first principles thinking. Instead of accepting conventional wisdom, Musk breaks down complex problems into their fundamental components and builds solutions from the ground up. Wood also rejects the common criticism that Musk runs too many companies.
According to her , he does not personally manage every detail. Instead, it hires exceptional engineers and business leaders who operate independently. You were one of his strongest supporters. You invested in many of his companies. What makes him such an exceptional entrepreneur and why have you maintained such faith in his vision?
He is the most productive person in the world. I am convinced of this. And that's what he did, we're constantly asked the question: how can he run all these companies? Well, he doesn't run all these companies single-handedly . He surrounded himself with some of the most talented people in the world, both engineers and businessmen, eager to work on the most complex, difficult, and exciting projects in the world.
But he sets milestones and goals for companies, and when one of them misses a deadline, he becomes obsessed with it and starts working aggressively with the relevant teams to overcome any obstacles. I think what makes him unique is that he bases everything on first principles. He is an engineer. He breaks down the problem into components and doesn't let conventional wisdom dictate how to do things right .
He likes to rethink approaches to things, especially given that we have new technologies. Why, as automakers did in the early days, try to create a battery specifically for the automotive industry when we had consumer electronics, laptops, and cell phones? We have that whole supply chain of batteries that now line the bottom of Tesla cars.
So he was way ahead of other automakers because he thought about technology that already existed and the cost curve that he could leverage, while other manufacturers were creating a new battery that didn't actually work. They are all moving towards this way of thinking about the world. So, SpaceX is one of the main assets and a very successful investment in the ARC venture fund.
AGP is pleased, Katie, to be your partner in this fund in Australia. He has been working for four years. Very strong results, around 33% per annum over the last four years. Can you tell us about this fund and what problem it is trying to solve for investors? Yes. Well, especially in the United States, we've seen companies stay private longer.
And that's because the regulations in the United States after the various crises that we've been through—whether it's the tech sector and telecom, or 2008-2009—it's just one set of rules after another, over and over again. So, companies, you know, felt that going public was becoming too expensive and too distracting from work.
So they stay private longer, which is why companies like SpaceX, with a trillion-dollar market cap, are finally going public. Why are they going public now? That's because, you know, the idea of global, or orbital, data centers. So, data centers in space will require so much capital that they will have to go to the public capital markets.
But it went public with a valuation of 1.75 trillion. The problem we were trying to solve was to give all investors, whether they were accredited or not , the opportunity to participate in the private sector, and of course, thanks to our activities, we were well prepared for this. We focus only on technological breakthrough innovations .
And we always followed the private markets because it helped us in our investments in the public markets as well, when we saw competition or new ideas emerging. So it was quite natural, and I'll say one more thing: we provide investors with access through an instrument that is directly linked to capital.
That is, we work directly with the capitalization table. We do not expose our clients to SPVs, especially multi-tier SPVs where one fee is stacked on top of another. Ultimately, investors don't even know if they own a share of the underlying stock. Perhaps they only possess the promise of an income stream from another investor.
So we work directly with the capitalization table. We know the founders, the founders know our research, and so we were able to provide access and obtain information rights that many investors in private companies do not have. They are the most relevant to us, and thanks to our research, the founders are very favorable to us in terms of granting information rights.
Yes. And you are investing alongside some of the biggest names in venture capital . As for that , as I understand it, this is a fund that invests in both private and public companies. How many private companies are in the portfolio, Katie? We have quite a few companies that have recently gone public.
Therefore, the figure may not be entirely accurate, but it is about 50 names. Of course. Good. Regarding the investment process, it would be good to discuss how a company gets into the portfolio. Can you tell us about the stages from, let 's say, an idea to investment, and it would also be nice to talk a little about the experience and the team you brought to this project.
Of course. First of all, I will talk about the team, as it is very important. So, we have 15 analysts, and why do I mention that particular number? Why do we like this number? This is because of the way we organized our research. I already said that we have five main innovation platforms covering 15 technologies.
Therefore, the responsibilities of our analysts are divided not by sectors or industries, but by technologies that will scale across different industries. Our analysts are technology experts, but at the same time they are industry generalists because, as I mentioned, as costs come down, these technologies are spreading across industries and sectors.
Another very important thing to know about our team is the high level of collaboration. Why is this so important? This is important because these technologies are converging, that is, merging. Take, for example, the Tesla model: three analysts are working on it —from robotics, energy storage, and artificial intelligence.
And they actively cooperate . That's why, in my opinion , our expectations for Tesla were much higher than those of any other analyst. After all, in traditional firms, who is watching Tesla? Even in traditional venture capital funds ( although there are few of them), let's say, for example, in a firm divided by sectors and industries, Tesla is followed by an automotive market analyst .
And you know what? This analyst is very knowledgeable about internal combustion engines and conventional cars. But he is not an expert in robotics , energy storage, or artificial intelligence. This analyst finds himself in a difficult position and simply cannot comprehend what Tesla really is. This is not just a car company.
Therefore, it is very important to correctly identify markets. Katie Wood's forecast is primarily a long-term vision built on technological progress, not short-term market predictions. She believes that innovation has reached a tipping point, where several breakthrough technologies converge , creating new industries, increasing productivity, lowering costs, and driving economic growth more strongly than most investors expect .
While headlines focus on inflation, interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, Wood argues that the real story is unfolding beneath the surface.
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